Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 19 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: USA Network
- Location: UFCU Stadium — San Marcos, TX
- Spread: Texas State (-3)
- Over/under: 62.5
- All-time series: North Texas leads, 28-7-3
- Last meeting: Texas State 30, North Texas 28 — January 3, 2025 (First Responder Bowl)
- Current streak: Texas State, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
North Texas and Texas State only met once as FBS opponents, and it was a memorable one.
That’s when the Mean Green sent a former walk-on named Drew Mestemaker to make his first start at quarterback since ninth grade, long before he was leading the FBS in passing or engineering upsets over Oregon. While Mestemaker impressed that January afternoon, Texas State’s offense generated 508 yards in a 30-28 victory in Dallas.
Two years later, the same identities persist for each program. Both North Texas and
Texas State feature talented, capable offenses heading into this Week 3 matchup. However, the morale levels are different. North Texas (1-1, 0-0 American) is riding high after a 44-6 shellacking of UNLV. Texas State (0-2, 0-0 American) is in despearation mode after squandering a 10-point second half lead to arch rival UTSA.
San Marcos hosts an American Conference opponent from Texas for the second-straight week. Do the Bobcats enter the win column, or do the Mean Green make another statement?
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas was one of two FBS teams, along with Iowa State, to lose all 22 primary starters this offseason. The Mean Green were one win away from the College Football Playoff last year, but the 2026 season would clearly be different as the roster was evaporated of all of its star talent. However, Neal Brown rebuilt a capable roster, and now, North Texas appears to remain an American Conference contender.
The Mean Green decimated preseason Mountain West favorite UNLV, 44-6, last Saturday in Denton. And their debut showing at Indiana wasn’t terrible either, considering North Texas out-gained the defending national champs, 367-365, and had the score as close as 24-13 in the second half before falling behind the final 25 minutes.
North Texas’ offensive talent is clear. The Mean Green reloaded with former Big 12 starters Tayven Jackson and Jahiem White, and that quarterback-running back duo looks ready to take the American by storm. Jackson has thrived against two preseason playoff hopefuls, throwing for 425 yards on a 68.5 completion rate. Meanwhile, White is spearheading the new-look run game. He produced 124 rushing yards on 10.3 per carry last week, looking spry after missing nearly the entirety of 2025 with a knee injury.
Jackson has spread the wealth quite evenly among the revamped receiving corps. Corri Milliner is leading the bunch with 131 receiving yards, and seven different Mean Green players have between four and nine receptions thus far — four wide receivers, two tight ends, and White.
For a completely retooled offense that lacked prior chemistry, North Texas is taking great care of the ball. The Mean Green have only coughed up one turnover this season, and they’re a plus-3 in turnover margin.
The defense forced four takeaways last Saturday against UNLV, picking off one pass and recovering three fumbles in the 38-point rout. Turnover production was the hallmark of the 2025 North Texas defense which tied for fifth in the FBS with 28 takeaways. First-year coordinator Matt Powledge looks to continue that tradition in Denton with a new cast of characters.
Transfer linebackers Zakye Barker (SMU) and Aaron Alexander (Arkansas State) have been among the top additions to this defense. The two combine for 25 tackles and played a pivotal role in limiting UNLV star running back Jai’Den Thomas to just 37 yards on 10 rushes, and defending the run game will be essential against Texas State. The Rebels averaged 2.5 yards per rush last week, and North Texas’ dominance at the line of scrimmage was evident. The Mean Green generated four sacks behind the brilliant play of UMass transfer David Onuoha, who could be one of the top pass rushers in the American this year.
North Texas has also found a reliable kicking game, which could loom large in San Marcos. Dominic De Freitas is 6-of-7 of the season, draining 100 percent of attempts from under 50 yards with a long of 47.
Texas State Bobcats outlook
Texas State entered the Pac-12 with College Football Playoff hopes, thanks to tremendous continuity — retaining head coach GJ Kinne, a starting quarterback, and two 1,000-yard receivers, among others. While the Bobcats still have a blank slate in Pac-12 play, those playoff prospects are rapidly fading after an 0-2 start.
Texas State looked far better against Texas than the 59-7 result in implied, considering the Bobcats never went three-and-out. Rather, they were plagued by constant turnovers and kicking woes. Those struggles reappeared in Week 2 against UTSA. Texas State lost the turnover battle 3-0 (really 2-0 if you exclude the game-ending lateral play) and shanked a 26-yard field goal and extra point. The Bobcats squandered a 10-point second half lead to their rival, and now winning is imperative — or else they’re 0-3 for the first time since 2019.
The Bobcats’ offensive talent is unquestionable. Brad Jackson has proven to be one of the most electrifying dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, producing 3,224 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 744 rushing yards, and 17 rushing touchdowns in a breakout 2025 campaign. But the redshirt sophomore is still settling into 2026, having thrown under 200 yards in both games with one touchdown to three interceptions. Still, he has run the ball fairly well, and Texas State will design runs for him to keep North Texas on its toes.
Texas State ranked 10th in the FBS in rushing offense a year ago, and that remains a strength of the team. UTSA had little resistance against the Bobcats run game, which produced 289 yards on a 5.8 average. Torrance Burgess Jr. rushed for 149 last week, while Darian Jackson added 99 in an effective one-two punch. Texas State’s offensive line is creating good gaps for the backs, and the unit has been decent in pass protection as well.
The Bobcats feature two 1,000-yard receivers from last year — Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. However, Sparks has been limited due to injury and remains day-to-day. His injury required Kylen Evans and Tucker Cusano to elevate their production, and Evans has done a particularly good job of that. He ranks first on the team with 102 receiving yards, while Dawn leads the group with 11 receptions.
Last season, Texas State ranked fifth in total offense, but the defense limited the Bobcats to a 7-6 record. It’s a small sample size, and the Bobcats faced No. 1 Texas and an American contender in UTSA rather than FCS competition, but that trend persists in 2026. Texas State currently allows the ninth-most yards in the country, giving up the fifth-most through the air. First and second downs haven’t been the issue, but the Bobcats have surrendered 14-of-30 third downs and 7-of-8 fourth downs — the most fourth down conversions allowed in the FBS.
Everything starts with generating a pass rush. Texas State only has one sack to date, and the lack of pressure is leading to a lack of interceptions. Strong safety Ryan Nolan, the team’s second leading tackler with 17 stops, is the owner of the team’s lone interception this season.
Prediction
This one could enter higher scoring territory, given the offensive firepower of both Texas teams. Texas State will provide a greater offensive challenge than UNLV did, mainly due to the prowess of the Bobcats’ offensive line and their ability to pass.
Texas State’s offense hasn’t been consistently stopped this year — especially in the run game. Rather, the Bobcats are losing on self-inflicted wounds. Limiting turnovers, executing in the red zone, and making short field goals could have drastically changed the narrative in the first two weeks. North Texas has played far less sloppy through two games, but unlike Texas State, the Mean Green haven’t been involved in a competitive fourth quarter yet.
This 2024 First Responder Bowl rematch should feature several lead changes, and while North Texas looked every bit of an American contender a week ago, things change fast in college football. Ask Oklahoma State. The more desperate team defends home turf and avoids an 0-3 start.
Prediction: Texas State 35, North Texas 31
