Steal a road game, steal the series. That is what both the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers must be thinking as they enter Game four with Detroit up 2-1. That means Cleveland will be looking to protect its homecourt advantage, where it is unbeaten these playoffs, while Detroit attempts to take full control with a win in enemy territory. All three games in this series have featured one team seemingly to roundly outplay the other before the opponent somehow storms back to take a late lead that
they can’t quite maintain. Will that trend continue tonight?
Game Vitals
When: 8 p.m. ET
Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
Watch: NBC/Peacock
Odds: Pistons +3.5
Analysis
Much attention was paid to Cade Cunningham’s three consecutive turnovers, which allowed the Cavs to pull away in the fourth quarter of a tied game. Fair enough. Cade giveth great performances, and Cade taketh away in a critical moment. The bigger issue, to my mind, is Detroit’s biggest problem in these playoffs — its big men.
Jalen Duren is straight up having a bad playoffs, and it’s now stretched to 10 games. It’s not just that opponents are taking away his opportunities, though they are doing that. It is that Duren is fumbling away the opportunities he does get, sometimes literally.
This season for Duren has been all about an elevated level of skill and assuredness that he added to his prolific strength as a big man. He was no longer strictly a rim-running big; he was a center who had a dangerous face-up game, who could make the right decision in the short roll, and who could combine burst with a new level of touch and finesse that made him a lethal scorer within eight feet.
Duren shot 67.3% on 10.6 attempts within eight feet in the regular season. That trailed only Giannis Antetokounmpo for players with at least eight such shots per game. Duren was a monster. In the playoffs, Duren’s attempts have been whittled to just over seven per game, and his field goal percentage has plummeted to just 50%. Of the 17 players in the playoffs who have averaged that many shots within eight feet, only Paolo Banchero and Jamal Murray shoot worse than Duren. The 22-year-old big man has also seen his free throws and rebounds tick lower while his turnovers have increased.
No problem, you might think, Detroit’s deepest position was at the center spot, and Isaiah Stewart was a whispered defensive player of the year candidate before a suspension and injury took him out of contention late in the season.
Stewart has been a bit of a disaster in these playoffs. There has been no definitive indication of any health concerns, but something simply doesn’t look right. In the regular season, Stewart’s impact was felt up and down the floor. His absence in last year’s postseason matchup against the Knicks is often cited as one that swung the series.
Well, Stewart is available in these playoffs, but he isn’t making any impact. He’s been limited to just under 14 minutes per game, but that is masking just how little he is accomplishing on the floor. On a per 36-minute basis, Stewart’s scoring has plummeted from over 15 to around 10, his three-point shot has almost completely disappeared, down by 66%. Detroit’s defense has been stout throughout the playoffs, and is a mighty 94.1 when Stewart is on the floor. The issue is that offense, already a middle-of-the-road offense in these playoffs, falls off a cliff with Stew on the floor. It goes from a modest 110.2 to a 93.7. Looking at Stewart’s on-off splits, the team is 20 points per 100 possessions better on offense with him off the floor compared to on the floor. That’s not all on Stewart, of course, but it’s been a black hole of a position for the Pistons, and it’s so bad not even Stew’s defense can make up for it.
It was no surprise to many Pistons fans that when the Pistons finally made their run to take the lead in game 3, it was with Paul Reed on the floor. He scored 11 points in just over nine minutes of action and breathed some actual life into a very stagnant offense.
JB Bickerstaff has to figure out this big man conundrum, and he’s got to be willing to ask some hard questions and come to some hard conclusions. The Cavs, with both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, were always going to present some challenges for the Pistons bigs, but I think we can definitely say whatever the team is doing is not working. Maybe it’s more Paul Reed; maybe that means resting Isaiah Stewart. Maybe it means whoever starts the game isn’t necessarily finishing the game, and instead riding whatever is the closest resemblance to a hot hand.
It feels like if Detroit can get a good to great game from a big, they are almost defacto going to win that game, and if they win that game, they will be on the doorstep of winning the series and advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals (with its own matchup issues for bigs against the mighty New York Knicks).
Projected Lineups
Detroit Pistons (2-1)
Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2)
James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Questions of the Game
Confidence level in Detroit winning tonight’s game? Confidence level in Detroit winning the series?
