We start the review of the season as a matter of risk analysis and probabilities for wins. This season we’ll take the schedule as it comes instead of sorting by risk levels. The reason for the change is pretty simple; confusion. Several people commented to me that it’d be better to just do the chart in the same order of the schedule since sorting by risk level was harder to track.
There will be a (Win/Loss), and an (Updated Odds) column will be added to the middle third chart to account for the inevitable
corrections and updates as the season unfolds.
Defining Risk
Let’s go over the Risk entry parameters so that we can better understand what’s in the chart.
Initial Risk – This is the risk posed by the opponent. It is based on a combination of last season’s record, current potential performance, and competition level. For the first chart, it is always a mix of gut feeling, intuition, and trusted opinion sampling.
Risk to Opponent – This is the same sort of analysis specifically intended to characterize the risk the Hokies present to the opposing team. It is not a fixed value across the chart because each situation can be a bit different. This Risk setting will hopefully improve over the course of the season.
Risk Scores – are, in numbers, 1 to 5 with 1 being Low, and 5 being High. A team presenting a 3 with Tech presenting a 3 would be a 50/50 push. Low-Moderate and a Moderate-Low scores are similar in range (2) but shaded a bit toward the prior or next level.
| Date | Team | Initial Risk | Risk to Opponent | Odds of Winning | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Aug 31 | vs. South Carolina | High | Low-Moderate | 30/70 | A neutral venue opener with little historical comparison. Tech is unlikely to win this one. South Carolina has become a better-quality team than prior seasons and is ranked #13 for a reason. If their Quarterback performs this game could be embarrassing for Tech. |
| Sat Sep 6 | vs. Vanderbilt | Moderate | Moderate-Low | 45/55 | Even with this being a night opener at Lane the Hokies do not look to be a favorite. If they perform well in game one they might get a chance at being a slight favorite. Vanderbilt should normally be a Moderate-Low risk – but they still have Pavia and Tech has Linebacker corps issues. |
| Sat Sep 13 | vs. Old Dominion | Low-Moderate | Moderate-High | 60/40 | ODU will probably not have the talent to compete, but this risk comparison should be Low/High and not close to a 50/50 push. The risk will definitely change depending on the first two games. This is the first better than even chance for Tech to grab a W. |
| Sat Sep 20 | vs. Wofford | Low | Moderate-High | 65/35 | This should be a Low/High game with FCS Wofford, but Tech is still a huge unknown. This game will end the 1st Third of the season. If the Hokies do not win in a huge blowout, the remainder of the season could be very disappointing. |
| Sat Sep 27 | at NC State | Moderate-High | Moderate-Low | 40/60 | The ACC Opener might be a bust for Tech. This will be the first risk adjusted evaluation so the values are very preliminary. NC State and Tech are rough peers so their opening records will count heavily in the re-evaluation. |
| Sat Oct 4 | vs. Wake Forest | Low-Moderate | Moderate | 60/40 | If Wake is good this season all bets are off. Currently they don’t present more of a threat than we present to them. |
| Sat Oct 11 | at Georgia Tech | High-Moderate | Moderate | 40/60 | If Georgia Tech continues to surprise it is likely to win this one but at the mid-season mark the risk will definitely adjust depending on either team record. |
| Fri Oct 24 | vs. Cal Berkley | Moderate-Low | Moderate | 65/35 | Cal has been struggling. They are in Lane. This is a likely Tech Win. Things do change though. |
| Sat Nov 1 | vs. Louisville | Moderate | Moderate | 50/50 | Surprisingly the Louisville game might be a push. Neither team is initially much better than the other. This would be the first game of the final Risk re-analysis so it could get better or worse. |
| Sat Nov 15 | at Florida State | Moderate | Moderate | 50/50 | Same as Lousiville. Hope FSU repeats 2024 |
| Sat Nov 22 | vs. Miami | High-Moderate | Moderate | 45/55 | Revenge game. Senior Night at Lane. Probably very cold. Miami could have bought themselves a team or they do the typical Miami melt. No telling yet but they still are the favorite here. |
| Sat Nov 29 | at Virginia | Low | Moderate-High | 70/30 | Tech better not lose. |
Looking at the Raw Summary
From the initial looks of the chart, the Hokies are not facing a particularly easy season with lots of cupcake contests with a few peers and a couple of hard ones sprinkled in. The team is facing something, again, that the coaches and players either get a handle on, or will remain a perpetual agony.
From the raw numbers it is looking like Tech is facing 5 probable wins, 2 dicey 50/50 contests, and 5 probable losses. At the present time, the Hokies do not present a High risk to any one team. Frankly that’s concerning because they should present a High to Wofford, but given the shaky nature of the coaching situation, they could struggle in the game. The thinness of the Offensive Line and Linebacker corps, and the complete unknown regarding the style and execution of the offense with a new OC at the helm means that a High score is dishonest.
Drilling into the Deets
Let’s look at a game to game for the first four contests. This analysis breaks the season down into thirds, and the first third almost always sets the tone for the remainder of the season. The comments contain the main themes, but we can do a bit of discussion about the details of the first four games, here. We\ll wrap with a Magic 8-Ball look at games 5-12.
Game 1 – South Carolina (Neutral)
To say that this game is a stupid nonsensical money grab scheduling mistake is probably an understatement. Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks have broken the moderate to low level SEC torpor, and are actually ranked, in voting not performance, 13th to start off the season by the AP reporters.
So far, the team is reported to have a quality quarterback who might be NFL quality in the future. Shane has always been a quality recruiter, so the talent level is pretty uniformly above Tech’s. The SEC media and PR related revenue flow is much higher than Tech’s. In addition, and most importantly, the Gamecocks are putting up respectable numbers in the SEC which is usually rated as the better of the two Power 2 conferences. The ACC (minus Clemson – a living FSU, and a non-comatose Miami) is not at the same performance level as any team in the bottom third of either the SEC or B1G.
The added pressure is the appearance on national television in a big professional dome setting at a neutral site. South Carolina opening at Lane might have boosted Tech’s fortunes a bit. Opening in Atlanta won’t have anywhere near the ego boost as jumping to Sandman… and crowd induced procedure penalties on the opponent.
The Hokies do have a chance to win this, but it’s probably a “Dumb and Dumber” chance. Their only real hope is to fight to make a good showing. No, there are no moral victories, but there is a bit of dignity and purpose in not being slaughtered, either.
This game has a potential for getting out of hand for the Gamecocks, and if the Hokies can beat the 7.5-point current point spread and hold down the 52.5 O/U currently listed they’ll start 0-1 but without having gotten flattened by a much better program. Of course, there is always that dream instance where everything falls into place, and a very different Hokie team from the last 10 years takes the field.
Game 2 – Vanderbilt (Home)
If stupidity and greed combine into a single scheduling entity, this one takes the cake. At some point in the media driven madness of the chase of the almighty dollar, the time between facing a major SEC opponent and another one (not as major but certainly better than the Hokies) ends up being six days. Having six days to recover from what scopes out to be a massively tough game makes Game 2 against Vanderbilt even more difficult. Maybe the 7:30 PM Kickoff and the anticipated season opening pageantry will help the Hokies build up some adrenaline. Theoretically both teams are pretty evenly matched, the main difference is the presence of QB Diego Pavia, and the lack of depth and personnel coverage in the Tech Linebacker corps – that mismatch doomed the Hokies in last season’s opener at Vandy. There were certainly other factors involved, but the inability to contain Pavia – especially late in the game – meant the difference between a narrow win, and a narrow loss in OT. That game wrote the story for the 2024 Hokie football season. With Game 1 being a virtual write off, Game 2 will again be the main ink on the line for the 2025 season. Win the game convincingly and Tech’s risk to opponents rises at least a point. Win it narrowly and there is still a benefit in the potential of a 1-1 start instead of an 0-2.
The odds aren’t worth publishing at this time because they are still pretty ephemeral, and the betting windows won’t really be open until next week. However, the Vanderbilt game might actually be the pivot point for the season. We are still looking at a 3 (Moderate) risk score for the Commodores, a 2.5 for the Hokies. If Tech shows up in Atlanta, they could improve that match-up score. If they get drubbed in Game 1, they might actually drop to a 2 or even a 1.5 if they lose critical personnel.
Game 3 – Old Dominion (Home)
Two evening kickoffs in a row and normally you’d think that the Hokies were cruising to a really nice start on primetime TV. The reality is that if the Hokies are 0-2 at this point this game will be pure desperation to salvage anything from what could be a disaster of a season. The miniscule chances that a 2-0 Tech kicks off for what might be one of the last times, for a while, to the cross state 757 recruiting rival Monarchs would probably result in a blowout win for Tech.
The Hokies at 1-1 might have the juice and confidence to put a good one on them short of a blowout. If Tech comes into the game at 0-2, there is almost no telling what could happen. ODU could have their backs up with the scheduling games played by the Hokie AD looking to be what they can never be. There would be nothing like putting one on Tech in Lane to part company with a solid punch to the gut, just to prove a point.
This should still be a win, but the Hokies’ risk to the opponent level could drop to a Moderate (3) from a Moderate-High (4) if they are in rough shape and things are not coming together on either side of the line of scrimmage for them.
Game 4 – Wofford (Home)
This game is supposed to be a Garbage Time sort of affair with the Hokies risk level at High and Wofford’s at Low. The problem is that Tech is still an unknown and regardless of coaching has seemed to always have had problems putting away FCS and low level G5 FBS teams. In theory, this game should be a blowout win and complete shutout of Wofford, with the 2nd and 3rd team getting solid reps in the 2nd half, but the caveats drive this analysis. If Tech is 1-2 the game could break either way. If the Hokies have had close losses and a big effort against ODU the morale level could be at a point where they still get that blowout win. If morale is low because the team is 0-3 or even an 1-2 with the SEC games being dispiriting and the ODU game a struggle bus, it might take some real effort to just get by the Bulldogs.
Look for this to be a noon or 1:00 PM kickoff. The team might get lucky and have it be a 2:00 PM because it’ll be local off-market coverage. There isn’t even an announced network for the game at this time. This should be a win but given the potentials Tech can only push a Moderate-High (4). Wofford still will present at best a Low (1) however, that’s the sad news is that is the only Low in the schedule.
Given the above listed risks and opposing risks, the greatest probability is that Tech is 2-2 after the 4th game of the year. There is decent chance that it could be 3-1 but also a slightly lower but still too great of a chance for them being 1-3. Even having a possibility of going 1-3 with a low FBS and an FCS opponent in the opening schedule is worrisome. Of course, the eternal optimists might see a 4-0 start. Miracles do occur. Unfortunately, I think those were burned up for the Hokies in Overtime in end zone of the 2011 Sugar Bowl. It’s never been the same since.
Looking at the 8 Games Left
There were really too many ifs to drill down past the first third. We just don’t know enough about the quality and capability of this Virginia Tech Hokie football team. We also don’t really know enough about the opponents. We should get much better ideas and information for Game 5 and the start of the ACC season.
The big bummer with Game 5 is that it’s away, and it’s also against NC State, which is trudging along in the peloton with Tech, but has proven to be just a notch ahead in quality and record. Nearly everyone is counting this one as a loss, and only a surprise Hokie burst into 3-1 or even possibility 4-0 territory is going to put a dent in the perception. Tech is most likely to start the ACC in an 0-1 hole.
Game 6 is a first week of October early Homecoming game against Wake Forest. Wake was good for a short stretch, but the wheels fell off last season, and the Demon Deacons are unlikely to win this one. There is no kickoff or network information, but it would be a nice 3:00 kick opportunity for the community. The media people will dictate that timing based on both team’s ratings potentials. Tech really should win this game, but the situation remains fumes in the air it will all be about how beat up Tech is vs. how beat up Wake is. It should still be a win for the Hokies.
Game 7 happens back in Atlanta, this time in a college venue, against the other ACC Tech. Georgia Tech is supposed to be pretty good this season. It’s not ranked but the general ratings have it scoring above the Hokies. This really looks like a tough loss for Virginia Tech, but without really seeing how good Georgia Tech is, this one is really close to a push.
Game 8 is California-Berkley (Cal) at Lane on a Friday evening 7:30 kickoff. Timothy Sands’s alma mater is expected to lose. We’ll see how they perform during the first month and two-thirds of the season but even a limping Tech has a better chance, at home, than the Golden Bears do on the road.
Game 9-12 are Louisville (Home), Florida State, Miami (Home) and the Hoos. Oddly enough, the Cardinals and FSU both grade out as pushes for now. Louisville has to rebuild everything. They have a good coach but are inconsistent. FSU is coming off an abysmal season and their fans are afraid that nothing has been fixed. Miami could be really good or do what Miami usually does and melts late in the year. As far as the Hoos in Hooville for Thanksgiving Saturday… Regardless of bowl eligibility, Tech had better win at Lane Stadium (North Annex). Brent Pry’s job probably depends on that game more than anything else at this point.
So that’s the first risk chart. Let’s see what you have to say, if this poll works.
