Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. Looking at the recent numbers and trends for each team, we’ll add it all up to see which squad may have the edge. This week, the 3-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 2-5 Arizona Cardinals.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 212 yards on a season low 27 pass attempts.
Javonte Williams was the focus, rushing for 155 yards on 25 carries. Dallas finished the game with a season high 204 yards on 38 rushing attempts.
The receivers didn’t see much
in the way of volume, but were productive when targeted. CeeDee Lamb snagged a pair of touchdowns and George Pickens finished with another.
Brevyn Spann-Ford was the only tight end with a catch on the day, finishing with two catches on two targets. Jake Ferguson was targeted just once and drew a pass interference call.
Cardinals key stats from last week
The Cardinals finished last week with 94 rushing yards and 272 pass yards against the Broncos.
Arizona was an abysmal 1-for-5 in the red zone. They also converted just 5-of-17 third down attempts.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett was sacked three times.
The Cardinals most dangerous weapon, Trey McBride, finished the game with ten receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. This was his season high in both catches and receiving yards
Keep the Javon-train rolling
Javonte Williams is coming off one of the best games of his career last week against the Eagles. The Cowboys running back was the primary focus on offense, rushing for 6.2 yards per carry on 25 attempts. Coach Brian Schottenheimer made a conscious decision to stick with the run after completely abandoning it the week prior. The decision paid immediate dividends, resulting in a huge victory in a must-win game against Philadelphia.
This week, the Cowboys should plan to do the same. The Cardinals have struggled in run defense, ranking 28th in rush success percentage allowed (SumerSports). On the flip side, they rank eighth in pass success percentage allowed. This Cardinals defense has a weakness that Dallas can exploit.
The strategy for the Cowboys offense should be crystal clear: let the running back room once again feast behind an offensive line that just dominated one of the better defensive interiors in the NFL. If they can do that, it’ll only make things easier for Dak Prescott and the receivers as a result.
What do the numbers mean?
The Cowboys find themselves clawing back into the NFC East race. They realistically cannot afford another loss until they play the 49ers on November 15th. So how do the numbers stack up this week?
Dallas is the favorite in this one at home against a struggling Cardinals team. Arizona is certainly not devoid of talent – they’re a team that finds themselves out of sync and unable to play complementary football far too often. They feature one of the league’s best tight ends and several players on defense that would be starters across the league on any team.
You’d never know about the talent on the field judging them by their point differential this season, however. The Cardinals currently rank dead last in the NFL with a -66 point differential through seven weeks. What makes that even more amazing is that they only allowed 14 and 16 points in week one and week six, respectively. Both of those games resulted in wins. But when this team loses, they lose big. The Cardinals only have one single-score loss this year, with the rest being blowouts.
If Dallas can force a stop or two early in the game (as opposed to waiting until the third drive or after halftime), the offense has a legitimate opportunity to put the game away early. That’s a big ask, considering what we’ve seen from Christian Parker’s unit this year. But outside of Trey McBride, the Cardinals are lacking legitimate threats across the offense.
Arizona has two capable backs, Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier. Both running backs are averaging less than four yards per carry on the season and Love may not even be available this week due to injury. If he is, he’s certainly the more dynamic playmaker of the two. With that said, the Cardinals simply lack the firepower to generate explosive plays and they struggle to put the ball into the end zone on a consistent basis. This should be a week where the Dallas defense once again allows 24 points or less, just as they’ve done the last three weeks.
The spread from FanDuel has Dallas as the seven-point favorite for good reason. They should be able to beat the Cardinals in every phase of the game. But as we know, these games against Arizona can get funky out of nowhere. While I’m more skeptical about a Cowboys victory this week, as opposed to last week against their divisional rival, the numbers still indicate that Dallas will be the clear favorite to walk away with the win.
