This weekend (Sat., June 6, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return home to Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 118. In the main event, former champion Belal Muhammad hopes to avoid a three-fight losing streak by turning away rising contender Gabriel Bonfim. Additionally, Middleweight contenders will collide as Brendan Allen faces Edmen Shahbazyan, who is finally in position to capitalize on his hype from seven years ago. Before all that, we have a trio of fun matchups featuring
talented fighters — it’s a pretty good Apex card to hold us over until the White House!
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the three main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Lightweight: Fares Ziam (-320) vs. Tom Nolan (+275)
Best Win for Ziam? Nazim Sadykhov For Nolan? Charlie Campbell
Current Streak: Ziam has won six straight, while Nolan has won four in a row
X-Factor: Both Lightweights are very tall and rangy for the division
How these two match up: I don’t like that the fight was booked, this is still a quality matchup.
Ziam has developed into a legitimate contender at 155-pounds. I would quickly pick him over a majority of the men ranked above him. He was initially known for his clean distance kickboxing, but nowadays, Ziam is doing even more damage with excellent chain wrestling and violent elbows at every opportunity. Nolan, somehow slightly bigger even than lanky Ziam, is a really slick kickboxer. He works at a high-volume and breaks his opposition down, though he is somewhat hittable in the process. At just 26 years of age, Nolan is definitely a standout prospect.
There is a chance that Ziam is thrown off by fighting a taller fighter who can kickbox at distance well. Perhaps a couple years ago, he gets flustered and outpointed in an uneventful split-decision. The current version of Ziam, however, has way too many tools to be frustrated by that kind of minor detail.
Generally, this feels all-wrong for Nolan. His activity and aggression will run him directly into Ziam’s sharp counters, and turning down the pressure doesn’t feel like an option. Worse still, Nolan is going to have to be very careful kicking, because he does not want to end up beneath “Smile Killer.”
Let’s get Ziam a Top 10 opponent already.
Prediction: Ziam via knockout
Bantamweight: Bryce Mitchell (-146) vs. Santiago Luna (+114)
Best Win for Mitchell? Edson Barboza For Luna? Quang Le
Current Streak: Mitchell won his last bout, while Luna is 2-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Luna took the fight on very short notice
How these two match up: This might be even more intriguing than the original booking, which featured Victor Henry vs. Mitchell until about a week ago.
Mitchell’s drop to Bantamweight was overdue, as “Thug Nasty” was undoubtedly giving up size and strength to the cream of the Featherweight crop. An excellent grappler, Mitchell is a determined takedown artist with a decent Southpaw kickboxing attack as well. Luna, meanwhile, is the definition of a bluechip prospect. Just 21 years of age with obvious athleticism and a stellar wrestling background, Luna can also pack a serious punch.
Unfortunately for “Border Boy,” this feels like a bit of an overstep. A couple more years into his career, I would fully expect Luna to smoke Mitchell even on short-notice. Right now, I would favor his odds with a full camp behind him. The combination of being both inexperienced and on very short-notice, however, shift the odds into Mitchell’s favor.
I expect Luna to start strong, denying the first couple takedowns and beating Mitchell to the fence. “Thug Nasty” is now a veteran with a wealth of UFC experience, capable of taking some shots without getting discouraged. As soon as Luna slows at all or makes a mistake, Mitchell will land a tricky trip takedown or jump his back in a scramble.
Elite wrestlers generally do very poorly on bottom position, especially if they’re a little fatigued and have never been there before.
Prediction: Mitchell via submission
Light Heavyweight: Iwo Baraniewski (-295) vs. Junior Tafa (+220)
Best Win for Baraniewski? Ibo Aslan For Tafa? Parker Porter
Current Streak: Baraniewski is 2-0 in the UFC, whereas Tafa won his last fight
X-Factor: Will Baraniewski brawl?
How these two match up: I can almost guarantee this doesn’t see the judges.
If you like quick finishes and hard-to-spell last names, Iwo Baraniewski is your man! The Polish Judo ace has spent almost zero time grappling in the Octagon, preferring to drop bombs and rack up Performance Bonuses. After a Contender Series bout and two UFC appearances, Baraniewski’s total time in the Octagon has yet to pass the 2.5 minute mark.
Madness.
Tafa struggled with two issues at Heavyweight: zero ground game and being undersized. Credit to Tafa for solving the latter, as he’s now shredded and the perfect fit for 205 pounds. Unfortunately, his wrestling and grappling remain awful, which hampers his ability to unleash his nasty boxing combinations.
If Baraniewski decides to brawl, he might get smoked. Tafa’s combination punching is legitimately clean and deadly, so I don’t know who would be favored in a straight up shootout. At any point, however, Baraniewski can simply decide to win this fight by taking down Tafa.
That’s way too large of a liability to worry about any other details.
