The San Francisco 49ers head into Sunday’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with some troubling injury information. Kyle Shanahan isn’t counting on Ricky Pearsall returning for Sunday’s game, and
Jauan Jennings has a chance, but it is far from a certainty. Meanwhile, the Bucs have injuries in their secondary and will likely be without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. Also, Chris Godwin, who just returned from injury, has yet to practice this week.
Mac Jones is going to get the start on Sunday, with Brock Purdy still not fully healthy. Jones executed a masterful Shanahan game plan, including underneath throws and protecting the football, last Thursday. Will the possible lineup of Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Jake Tonges, Christian McCaffrey, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling be enough again on Sunday?
Here are three things to watch for on Sunday:
The Bucs’ deep passing attack
Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career. The departure of Liam Coen to Jacksonville hasn’t slowed down this Bucs offense. Ranking eighth in the NFL with an explosive play rate of 10.6%, the Bucs attack defenses through the air but not in the short area window of throws: Mayfield and the Bucs offense rank 30th in the NFL for short passing attempts at 60.8%.
Where the Bucs thrive is in the intermediate and deep portions of the field. With a 22.2% intermediate throw rate, which ranks 13th in the NFL, and a 17% deep throw rate, which is first in the NFL, the 49ers secondary will need to remain disciplined in coverage as they will be tested downfield.
When Mayfield escapes the pocket and extends the play is another point of emphasis for the defense, as explosives and back-breaking first downs have resulted from Mayfield’s legs.
Lastly, the 49ers use two high safeties at a 41% clip (14th in the NFL), and the Bucs have a league high 0.46 EPA against two-high safeties.
Doubling the Rams’ game plan against Tampa Bay
The Bucs have a top run defense in 2025. Sunday’s game isn’t the week for the 49ers’ run game to kick start. You can expect Jones and this offense to operate as close as possible to Thursday’s game plan against the Rams. The extension of the run game will be with underneath throws to Christian McCaffrey. It’s important for the 49ers to at least show the run, but it will be tough sledding against this defense.
The 49ers rank eighth in the NFL with 70.4% of their throws being short, and the Bucs have allowed the third most underneath throws (73.6%) and the third-worst EPA on short throws at 0.24. The middle of the field is the place to attack the Bucs, who allow an EPA of 0.39 on MOF throws, while the 49ers are second in the NFL with a 26.6 middle of the field throw percentage.
Handling the Bucs blitz attempts
The Bucs defense blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL at 40.2%. While that hasn’t translated into success for the defense, the 49ers must be prepared with hot throws and identifying pre-snap where the pressure is coming from. Jones has shown his ability to get rid of the ball quickly, and that will need to continue on Sunday.
The 49ers have the 11th-best EPA against the blitz (0.17), the eighth-best EPA against non-blitzes (0.15), but the ninth-worst EPA against pressure (-0.60). Seems simple enough, get the ball out and protect Jones on straight drop-backs.
