March Madness is one of the best postseason formats in all of sports if not the best. Each year people fill out brackets guessing who they think will win each game, even though no one has come close to getting it 100% correct. The NCAA says the chances of doing so, even if you are an “expert”, is less than 1 in 120 billion. As far as anyone knows, only one person out of millions has ever predicted the first two rounds correctly, and he’s far from an expert. He didn’t even remember filling one out.
So if your family, friends, or work sent you something about filling out a bracket, no need to fear: no one does well, so anyone can win.
Last year I made an overly complicated statistical model to make my picks. I did terribly. Since there are no good methods, there really aren’t many bad ones.
That said, there are some things to help you do better than others… maybe. I’ve done my best to highlight a few guidelines, based on recent history, to help you fill out your bracket. Whether you follow college basketball religiously or still think Shaw is playing, this guide is for you!
Upsets happen – until the Elite 8
For those unfamiliar with basketball, all 68 teams are grouped into 4 regions and then given a seed. The best team in the region is given the 1 seed, second best 2 seed, and so on. But that doesn’t always mean the better team wins. This is where the fun begins.
From 2021-2025, the lower seeded team won about 14% of the time. A decent amount, but probably less than people think. Here’s how frequently each seed has beaten a higher seeded team:
The 11 seeds have really become the trendy pick for those underdogs, and the 15 seeds have had some success lately; Oral Roberts, Saint Peter’s, and Princeton all made it to the Sweet 16 from 2021-2023.
For filling out the first few rounds, this chart below shows how many upsets to pick each round (based on a 5 year average), and reference the chart above to decide which teams to have move on:
If you want to take it a step further, the ACC and Big Ten are the only conferences to have teams win as underdogs in each of the past five years, while the SEC has had a team do it in four. Outside of that, there aren’t consistent underdogs who do well. More on that later.
Past the Elite 8, the Big Dogs Stand out. Especially the top seeds
Of the past 70 teams to make it to the fourth round (the Elite 8), 58 were seeded sixth or better. For the Final Four and the championship, really the only seed that has consistently made it are the 1 seeds. While the “key” of March Madness brackets is to pick the upsets, there’s nothing wrong with picking the top team to win it all. 1 seeds have made up 7 of the last 10 teams to play in the championship game.
For the Final Four, Pick a Wild Card
It’s only happened twice where all Final Four teams were a 1 seed, though last year was one of those cases. From 2021-2024, each year a team seeded 8th or lower made it to the semi final round. While the 1 seeds are most likely to make it, there isn’t a clear second-best option to go with, so picking a Cinderella team to make it this far isn’t out of the question.
The Champion likely won’t be a surprise
Four of the past five champions were a 1 seed, the exception being 4th seeded Connecticut in 2023, who coincidentally repeated as champion in 2024. As boring as it is, the historically the higher seeded teams tend to do well.
Aside from the ‘Seeds’, there are some schools to be wary of
Arizona was the last school in the Western Half of the United States to win it all, which was in 1997. Since then it’s been all Eastern Schools. Most of it is because the vast majority of teams are out east, but it’s an interesting tidbit.. While some schools out west like UCLA, Creighton, and Gonzaga tend to do well, they haven’t won a title. Some teams typically get a win in the tournament, but others really struggle. Akron, Colgate, Norfolk State, VCU, and Vermont all have at least three tournament appearances since 2021 but zero wins to show for it.
The Big Ten and SEC have had some recent success, but most of it centers around five schools: Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, UCLA, and Michigan. They’ve collectively gone 44-18 since 2021.
The other schools in those conferences are harder to read. They’ve gone 75-74 in the past five years, but it’s worth knowing that in 60 of those wins they were the higher seeded team. But, as I mentioned earlier, those two conferences are the most likely to win as underdogs. Really they’re just hard to pick, but that’s what makes it fun!
There are some schools to like
Schools from the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 are responsible for 40% of all wins over the past five years, including four of the past five champions. Connecticut, Duke, Baylor, Kansas, and Creighton specifically have done well, with at least nine total wins in that time frame.
While there are definitely blue bloods in college basketball, only four schools have won a tournament game in each of the past five years: Gonzaga, Baylor, Creighton, and Houston (who has made it to the Sweet 16 in five consecutive years).
Are any schools or conferences good at being the underdog?
Not year-to-year, because typically if a team does really well in the tournament they get noticed and shed the underdog label. That being said, Arkansas, Oregon, and Gonzaga have won games as the lower seed in three of the past five years, most of any school. I also mentioned earlier that the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC typically have a team win as the lower seed.
Dashboard for those curious about how well each seed has done
How About the Mountain West?
The Mountain West had a reputation for not doing well in the tournament, but ever since San Diego State made the Championship game in 2023, they’ve done better. The past two years have seen Colorado, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State, and Grand Canyon all make it to the second round at least once Grand Canyon (I know Grand Canyon is in their first year in the Mountain West, but including them here).
Conclusion
Some people like to do a little bit of research, which is what this article is for. Others like to be random, some make picks based on if they know someone who attended that school. Others go off of which mascots would win in a fight; the options are endless. A number of people win their bracket using such methods.
The great thing is March Madness is a way for people who know little about basketball to get sucked in, and a way for basketball fans to enjoy it with their friends
