We’re still just just a dozen games into the young season, but already the DNA of the 2026 Red Sox is taking shape. They’ve got a lineup that doesn’t have enough power, a defense that is somehow both above average at taking away runs while also being well below average at avoiding mistakes, and a starting rotation that (even though they haven’t shown it yet) has serious upside.
The ceiling of these arms as a collective group is pretty easy to overlook given that the team started 2-8, but the teeth
have started to show over the last two games. And even if it’s lurking in the shadows, that upside is still very much there. In fact, all the Red Sox really need is for Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez and Brayan Bello to generally repeat what they did last year and they’re in serious business. Throw in Connelly Early blossoming into a middle of the rotation starter (also not unreasonable), and the division title is theirs for the taking, even with all their other flaws.
Of course, the problem is things probably won’t work out this way. Somebody will falter, somebody else might get injured, Early might not take the next step. And if any of these things happen, you’re left watching an incomplete offense struggle to keep pace with a hole in the boat at least once every five days.
However, since the ceiling of the rotation is attainable through a bunch of little things that are pretty likely to happen (the trick is getting them all to happen), let’s dive into our real world parlay.
First up, here’s what the rotation has looked like start by start over the first twelve games:
Basically, the first time around they got a good start from Crochet and a bad start from everybody else (except Early, who got screwed by Greg Weissert’s meatball). Then then the second time they got a good start from Gray and a bad start from everybody else; and so far, the third time through has featured good outings from both Crochet and Gray.
So to boil it down, what happens if we rearrange this table from best start to worst start using the Bill James Game Score metric? For those unfamiliar with the right hand column, here’s how it works:
Game Score
1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
In any case, here’s what it looks like when we order it that way and put all the games the Sox won in green and all the games the Sox lost in red.
Well how about that? We have a perfect match! (And the game Early lost with a score of 58 is probably a win most times out if your bullpen doesn’t give up a three run bomb and your offense doesn’t go 0-7 with men in scoring position.)
So now let’s break this rotation into a couple of groups. First up, we have Crochet and Gray, who have each made three starts. Both guys looked solid in two of their three turns, and the team’s won 67% of their games. It’s a massive oversimplification of things, but that’s set to start tracking towards the 23-9 record the Sox posted in the 32 games started by Crochet last year and the 21-11 record the Cardinals had in the 32 games Gray took the mound for them in 2025.
Then in the second group we have everybody else, and in particular Ranger Suarez and Brayan Bello. It’s not just that these two have been bad, it’s that they’ve been as bad as they were at any point last year.
Suarez made 26 starts in 2025 and only posted a Game score under 37 four times. Now in 2026, he’s already done that in each of his first two outings in a Red Sox uniform. For Bello, it’s even worse. Last year, he made 27 starts, and only posted a Game Score under 39 once.
In other words, Suarez and Bello made a combined 53 stars last year, and the four they’ve made in 2026 have most closely resembled their worst five outings from all of last season.
So now the question is whether this is a reason to be optimistic or pessimistic? On one hand, they both should pitch much better going forward simply by water seeking its level. But at the same time, Suarez just got paid and might have his foot off the gas, and Brayan Bello is a complete enigma. So uh, these two could really go either way. (Paging Jacob Roy!)
(Seriously though, here’s Roy’s deep dive on Suarez from before the season started, and here’s the one he did that includes Bello from before the season if you want to start there.)
Meanwhile, to complete the oversimplified exercise from earlier, the Phillies went 16-10 in Suarez’s 26 starts last year and the Red Sox went 14-13 in the 27 from Bello. When you tack those two records onto the Crochet and Gray team records from 2025, you get a 74-43 mark over 117 games. If a team managed to go just one game over .500 in the other 45 (seems reasonable if most of them are made by a version of Connelly Early that comes into his own), that’s a 95 win baseball team.
Here’s something else to chew on: Last year the back of Red Sox rotation was a complete mess behind Crochet, Bello, and the 26 starts made by the now strangely unemployed Lucas Giolito. Specially, there were six other guys who started at least five games for the Sox last year, and here’s a quick snapshot of what that looked like:
What I’m really driving at here is those 62 games should be pretty easy to replace and improve on if (and this is a major if) the guys the Sox currently have in the starting five to open the season stay healthy for most of the year.
The bottom line is that for better or worse, this squad is going to sink or swim with its starting rotation, and for now, it still looks like it has buoyancy. Other thing could still sink the ship, but this isn’t a bad vessel to ride out the storm.
