Year 18. Fresh off MVP honors in 2025. Mind-defying throws. Matthew Stafford does not appear to be slowing down as he gears up for the 2026 season. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2009 could retire at any point but when he is playing such great football at the quarterback position – why retire? This begs the question, what is Matthew Stafford going to do for an encore in the 2026 season?
To truly find out what Stafford might do in 2026, the best prediction should be drawn from just examining his
current tenure in Los Angeles.
Now, at first glance, Stafford’s 17 game average stats (across 17 seasons) indicates that he could throw for 4589 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Critics might argue that his touchdown number would be inflated by three seasons in which he threw for 40+ touchdowns. Outside of those seasons, Stafford has only thrown for 30+ touchdowns once…
However, by just looking at his 74 game sample with Los Angeles, we can get a better clue as to what he might produce in 2026.
2021 and 2025 were dominant seasons. Stafford threw for 4886 yards and 41 touchdowns before taking the Rams to the Super Bowl. In 2025, Stafford piled up 4707 yards and 46 touchdowns and brought LA to the NFC Championship Game.
The 2022 season was an abbreviated season for Stafford who only played 9 games because of a neck and back injury. The Rams offense was largely lethargic due to offensive line inconsistency and inefficiency in the run game.
The 2023 season saw the Rams offense gain more traction because of then rookie sensation Puka Nacua. Kyren Williams also took the reigns as the lead running back.
The 2024 season was a step back for the offense because Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp missed time with injuries. The offensive line was also without Steve Avila and offseason free agent signing Jonah Jackson.
If you take Stafford’s 5 seasons and 141 touchdowns in 74 games, his average season in a Rams uniform is: 4458 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
But that’s just the average. The 2026 season carries Super Bowl expectations. It’s reasonable to think that Stafford’s touchdown total could and should be higher. In fact, when the Rams switched to using a 13 personnel package on offense in Week 7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Matthew Stafford preceded to throw 34 touchdowns in an 11 game span. He threw double digit touchdowns in every game after the offensive change. That was with the loss of Davante Adams from Weeks 16-18.
If Super Bowl LXI was not enough motivation, Stafford also has the opportunity to become the first NFL quarterback to pass for 40+ touchdowns in four separate seasons. Not even Tom Brady, who played 22 seasons, ever accomplished that feat.
2026 Prediction
4632 yards, 40 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Sean McVay has never been shy when it comes to getting his player a record. A fourth 40+ touchdown season will further advocate for Stafford’s Hall of Fame resume. The Rams 13 personnel has been a catalyst for Stafford’s effective play. Lastly, consistent rapport with Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, and Kyren Williams gives Stafford every opportunity to have another monster year.
