The Bills have the most regular-season wins in the NFL since the start of 2020, and that means a few things.
It establishes how profoundly consistent the team has been during the Josh Allen era. It also quite obviously means there haven’t been many losses over the past six seasons. There is a negative byproduct of that winning, though, particularly when to date it hasn’t amounted to a Super Bowl victory.
When a relatively rare loss does occur, the sky-is-falling phenomenon tends to arise more often
than not.
Because Buffalo’s Week 4 loss happened immediately following a shaky performance in a win over the Chargers in Week 3, a lot of concerns have materialized among the fan base and the media. Or are they overreactions?
Here’s how I’d categorize these takes:
Overreaction: Josh Allen isn’t running enough
This was the first takeaway I had from the loss to the Patriots. Is it a situation worth monitoring? Yes. Am I super concerned about it? Not really. In fact, I won’t be surprised if we see an especially run-happy Allen against the Rams and Raiders the next two weeks.
Concern: DJ Moore’s shoulder
An AC joint sprain then an aggravation of that injury in the span of four games for the 29 year old who has been incredibly tough and durable throughout his NFL career. I am starting to wonder if this will be a lingering problem given that this is Year 9 as a professional.
Overreaction: James Cook isn’t getting enough carries
This is one of the most obvious overreactions. The Bills could’ve given the ball to Cook on the ground more than 12 times against the Patriots. Absolutely. I wrote as such in my takeaways article that published this morning.
But he’s seventh in carries through four weeks — pending MNF — and went over 20 carries in back-to-back contests in Weeks 2 and 3. Cook will get his in this Joe Brady offense. Don’t you worry about that.
Overreaction: Dion Dawkins struggling
The past two weeks have represented an unproductive stretch for Dawkins, as he’s allowed nine total pressures. He did lock it down against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter in Week 1 and held his own against Aidan Hutchinson and Co. against the Lions.
Is Dawkins in the peak prime of his career? No. Can he still play quality football at left tackle for the Bills? Definitely. He’s only 32. Healthy, high-caliber tackles can be valuable assets well into their mid-30s. We’ve seen this little lulls from Dawkins throughout his career. But he doesn’t look slower, or less powerful. He’ll be fine.
Concern: Alec Anderson’s overall play
I have not seen “it” from Anderson through four games. I thought his best performance came against the Lions, but it was mostly when blocking for the run game. That certainly carries its importance. Pass protection is king in the NFL, and the fifth-year pro has been a liability in that area in every contest.
He has found work well — helping out a teammate when he’s left without a defender to block — and laid some devastating blocks in those scenarios. In true one-on-one situations, Anderson has mostly struggled.
The former UCLA Bruin has allowed eight pressures on 152 pass-blocking snaps through four contests. David Edwards allowed four in the first month of the season a year ago.
With Austin Corbett, a nine-year vet with a stable game, waiting in the wings, I wonder how much longer of a leash Anderson has as a full-time starter.
Overreaction: Dalton Kincaid’s sudden drop in production
Three catches for 45 yards including a one-snag, seven-yard performance against the Patriots. A shocking downturn in production from what we saw from Kincaid in the first two weeks of the season.
I don’t think the lacking productivity continues. The sample is large enough to realize that when Kincaid is healthy and on the field, he’s one of the most productive receiving tight ends in football.
Now, does Joe Brady need to dig a little deeper in the playbook or get more creative with how he deploys Kincaid? Absolutely. And I believe he will. No reality check hits harder this time of year for a coach than a loss in the division at home. He’ll start implementing Kincaid as a 1A or 1B option sooner than later, and Kincaid will make plays.
Concern: Max Hairston’s demeanor and post-game reaction
Hairston allowed two touchdowns and four total catches on seven targets in his coverage area. The nonchalance he showed on the game-sealing first down was downright stunning. I am not nor will ever be an analyst who takes it personally when a player doesn’t feel like talking to the media after the game. I do think it can give us an indicator of where a player’s head is at. Apparently Hairston “stormed out” of the locker room after what was clearly a bad performance. He’s allowed to be upset. Of course.
The still very young cornerback needs to understand his job is very much a snap-to-snap gig. He needs to have amnesia out there. Prime example of this came in this contest when Hairston stayed stride for stride with a Patriots receiver on a deep ball and registered a pass breakup before allowing a first down on a dig the very next play. He needs to forget whatever happened on the last play, good or bad, and move forward to his next opportunity in coverage. Or to make a tackle in space.
And it’s almost if he’s playing too tentatively even if off-coverage. Hairston has freaky physical talent. Twitchy as it gets at the cornerback spot. But for as much as he could rely on that explosion in the SEC to make plays on the football when planting and driving on a comeback route toward the sideline, or in-breaker… he can’t regularly do that in the NFL. He has to be more situationally aware and mentally strong to accentuate all his robust skills. Those two elements are more concerning to me than his actual play, believe it or not.
If he can get right mentally, I truly believe Hairston will be fine.
Overreaction: Josh Allen’s decision-making
Contrary to popular belief in and around Western New York, among Bills Mafia, and, really, the entire football-watching population, Allen is not a flawless football player.
He’s not going to make the perfect decision 100% of the time.
And Allen did not become the superstar he is today because of his decision-making specialty anyway. Much more often than not, the Bills quarterback makes the right decision. The enormous sample size of his career tells us that. I’m not concerned about his clearly bad decision on the interception on Buffalo’s final drive of the Week 4 loss.
Concern: Terrel Bernard’s lack of explosiveness
Bernard is first on the team in tackles and third in stops (tackles that constitute a “loss” for the defense based on down and distance). But I can’t shake some of the reps I saw live — and on the in-stadium replay — from Bernard the past two weeks.
What were those reps exactly? Outside runs or quick throws to tight ends or receivers in which Bernard had a free run to the ball-carrier and simply couldn’t get to the football in time before the offensive player could turn upfield for a solid gain.
Sure, it could be Bernard still learning the intricacies of Jim Leonhard’s defense which is slowing the speed at which he reads and reacts to his keys. But he doesn’t appear as explosive or fast as he was even a few years ago. In coverage too.
Overreaction: WR screens are back!
Entering this Week 4 game, the Bills offense was below the league average in screen rate. Sure, the few thrown against the Patriots could conceivably move Buffalo closer to league average. But Allen isn’t utilizing screens at an alarmingly predictable frequency. And a screen — to a RB or WR — is a very viable play every team should have in its playbook and probably utilize every week.
Plus, Connor McGovern confirmed on WGR 550 this was not the called play in the huddle. It was an audible based on the look the Patriots defense gave the Bills. Do the Bills want to have something other than a quick screen to a WR dialed up if they see a max pressure look from the defense on third down? Yes.
