The 2026 Dolphins have had a tough schedule thus far. They have only faced 2 teams that currently aren’t in the playoff picture. One was week 1 against the Raiders when this young team was still wet behind their ears. The other was a win against their division rival Jets. They had a lead at halftime against the Pats and kept the most explosive offense in the league in check against the Lions. That schedule is a tough row to hoe but now gets a bit of a reprieve as they face a team that is actually
tanking in the Indianapolis Colts. Nothing will be easy though, as we will see later.
3 REASONS THE DOLPHINS CAN WIN
THE COLTS OFFENSE IS BAD
The Dolphins have been offensively challenged all season with a regressing OL, rookie WRs, an inexperienced QB that is now on IR, and the loss of their most dynamic threat in De’Von Achane. That’s a recipe for bad offensive football and for the first few games, it was. Despite a blip last week against Detroit, they had started to turn things around offensively. The Colts? They have no such excuses. They have one of the best RBs in football with Jonathan Taylor and added pieces like Keenan Allen this offseason to help the receiving unit. None of it has helped and now they have traded away some of the best weapons they had available. Both Allen and WR Josh Downs were traded at the deadline. The WRs left on the active roster are Deion Burks, Ashton Dulin, Anthony Gould, Laquon Treadwell, and former Dolphin Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. They still have TE Tyler Warren and the Dolphins have struggled with covering opposing TEs since… forever. But Warren has cooled off from a hot start to his rookie season. This year, he has only eclipsed 55 yards once and hasn’t found the end zone since week 2. Overall, the Colts average 4.5 yards per play, which is 2nd worst in the league. Taylor is still producing with 161 carries, 656 yards, and 8 rushing TDs. The Colts as a team are 10th in the league is rushing yards with 1037 yards and tied for 4th in rushing TDs with 11. But that is their entire offense. QB Daniel Jones is struggling with barely a 60% CP and a miserable 5.7 YPA. That YPA is tied for worst in the league. They have 6 passing TDs, tied with Miami and some others for league lowest. The Dolphins have faced 5 of the top 10 passing offenses in terms of completion percentage, 4 of them in the top 5. Only the Vikings are in the lower half. After the Dolphins kept a very good Detroit passing offense under 70%, they can absolutely keep up the momentum against a team that isn’t throwing the ball well at all. They may allow some underneath completions as Indy has been throwing short. This is not a scary pass offense at all and with the dearth of WR talent on the roster, Miami’s defense can focus on Taylor and Warren.
THE COLTS DEFENSE IS EQUALLY BAD
In every game this season, the Dolphins have faced a good overall team, a team with a weaker defense but a dominant offense, or a weaker offense with a dominant defense. This week, the Dolphins get none of the above. The Colts defense is bad across the board in most metrics. They are tied for last in yards per play allowed with 6.1. They allow 362 yards per game. While there isn’t a ranking for that stat specifically, the Dolphins have allowed 326 yards per game for a comparison. Their pass defense is middle of the pack in terms of yards per game allowed at 224.8. Only the Dolphins and Cardinals allow a worst passer rating against than Indy. They are tied with Miami for 2nd worst in YPA allowed. They are solid in CP allowed at 61.4% and are tied for 9th in terms of passes defensed with 44. But they are 2nd to last in INTs with 2 – only the Jets have fewer. They have 19 sacks on the season, but 4 of those belong to DeForest Buckner, who is now in San Fran. They are just below Miami in pressure percentage at 21.8%. In run defense, only the Raiders and Cowboys allow more yards per game than Indy, and only those teams plus the Bengals allow a higher YPC average. The Dolphins offense struggled against a supposed Lions team, but that defense has started to come together. Plus, they have a dangerous pass rush and have been good against the run. The Colts have none of that. The Dolphins and their run-early-and-often offense should have plenty of opportunities to be effective on the ground.
THE DOLPHINS DEFENSE JUST MAY HAVE TURNED A CORNER
Before the season, I read a tweet that stated Miami would probably have an adjustment period to the defense before it all started to click. Many times, that can take half the season. Half the season in and, lo and behold, the Dolphins defense had their best game of the season. The Lions offense is dangerous, but the Dolphins limited them to nearly 100 yards and 10 points off their season averages. The pass defense played as well as expected against their weaponry and the run defense, which had been faltering, stepped back up against arguably the league’s best RB. The pass rush, which was invisible early in the season, has stepped up in recent games with 25 pressures of their season total of 54 coming in the last 3 games. The stage is set for the Dolphins defense to have their signature game and show the development we’ve all been seeing. Unfortunately for them, they lost stalwart DT Zach Sieler for the season. However, sophomore Kenneth Grant has been stepping it up since his return from IR. He played his arguably best game of the season against the Lions and now will be forced to become a bigger part of the DL equation. The good news is the Colts have traded All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, and his replacement is rookie Jalen Farmer. The loss of Sieler will sting more in future games, but the stage is set for Grant and the others to have a solid, if not great, game.
3 REASONS THE DOLPHINS COULD LOSE
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
The Dolphins have not been a team that travels well this season. I mean, they are 1-7, so there aren’t a lot of positives to draw from overall. Now, there are some caveats to this. The 1st 2 games were on the road, and everyone was still in the learning process. One of those teams is the best NFC team. They went back on the road in week 4 to face the league’s best defense. That can skew the stats and make things seem worse than what they are now. They did get their only win of the season on the road against the Jets. That said, we know the offense will be limited now. The defense may have turned a corner, but they allowed the inept Vikings offense to produce 336 yards, which is their 2nd best output this season. They allowed the Jets to have their 2nd best output of the season. The fact is that we really don’t know if the Dolphins have truly grown and developed enough that they can go on the road and play at the levels we hope to see. The Colts, despite their issues, still have a couple dangerous playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins need to prove it first.
SPECIAL TEAMS, PENALTIES, AND THE MARGINS
The Dolphins are 31st in average starting field position, starting at their own 28.2. They are 2nd worst in starting field position allowed, allowing opponents to start at their own 36.7. That’s nearly an entire set of downs worth of field position on average. The Dolphins have 13 touchbacks on kickoffs, most in the league and a touchback percentage of 41.9%, the highest in the league. The next highest is 27.5%. The Dolphins have committed 71 penalties thus far, with 9 of them having been declined and 1 offsetting. 33 of those are offensive penalties. They have committed 9 false starts, tied for 9th fewest, but committed 19 holding penalties, 3rd most. Of the 71 penalties called, 19 of them came on 3rd down and 5 were on 4th down. That is basically 1 out of every 3 penalties called. They have 2 penalties for kicking short of the landing zone. Only 12 teams have done that all season, with Dallas (3) and Chicago (4) have more of those. Miami is 30th in net yards per punt (39.3), and 26th in FG% (75%). They allow the 2nd worst yards per punt at 50.1 and 19th in FG% against at 83.3%. It’s stuff like this that can kill any chance for a team to be successful. Miami can’t continue to give up field position and give the opponent free yardage. The Colts are almost as bad as the Dolphins in field position allowed for the opponent but are over 2 yards better with their own starting field position. They are tied for 6th best in penalties called with 54. They are 8th best in FG% at 91.7%. These are the little things that for teams like the Colts and Dolphins can be the difference between a win and a loss. If this game comes down to the margins, the Colts have an advantage.
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
When I originally drafted this post, Willis had not yet been placed on IR. I had a section about his health being an issue. It most definitely is now. Everyone who was tired of Willis will now get their chance to watch someone else. And while those fans may have visions of Kyle McCord becoming a superstar dancing in their heads, it is probably going to be anything but. The league has seen a few rags to riches stories of backup QBs getting a chance to start due to injury and becoming top players in the league; Tom Brady being the penultimate example. But the most likely outcome is more along the lines of Skyler Thompson, or the plethora of other backups who were… just backups. This isn’t a “bash Kyle McCord” section by any means. I hope he DOES become the next version of Brady or Purdy. But that would not and should not be the expectation. What IS the expectation is a LOT of checkdowns. I imagine Malik Washington, Greg Dulcich, and the RBs will get plenty of short, underneath targets. Perhaps they can get Chris Bell going with some manufactured touches underneath. Don’t expect to see McCord slinging the ball downfield like a man possessed. They will keep it very simple and very vanilla. From a statistical perspective, I would expect that if McCord has a higher CP, that his YPA will be lower. If he does have a big stat line, it will be from YAC. If the offense was more experienced, then perhaps we’d see the playbook opened a little more. But with 3 rookie WRs, young RBs, and a QB that has never taken an NFL snap, expect preseason level offense. And this is a concern for the Dolphins regarding a chance to win this game. The Colts are a bad team and with a healthy Willis, I’d expect a double-digit win. With a hobbled Willis, I’d still expect a win. With McCord, I don’t know if he can run the offense well enough to even score points. That’s just a fact of life with the situation. We can all hope for the best, but the unknown and inexperience factor make this game that SHOULD have been an opportunity for a win, a true toss-up, and very likely a loss.
I SAID WHAT I SAID
On Monday, I really liked this matchup for the Dolphins. On Tuesday evening, I am less confident in what the Dolphins can do. The Colts are a bad team that is heading in the wrong direction. But the Dolphins keep finding new and bigger obstacles to overcome. The news of Sieler being done plus Willis going on IR really puts a damper on what could have been an exciting week for watching the Dolphins. The best chance for the Dolphins to get a win is to get Gordon, Allen, and Wright all involved and run the ball a lot. Like 50+ total rushing attempts a lot. If the Dolphins have to pass the ball more than a handful of times, we’re looking at 1-8 and probably not another opportunity for a win until week 16 against the Chargers.
