Last year, the Missouri Tigers went 10-3 in a season that saw them finish as a top-25 team, but they weren’t a particularly scary offense. Brady Cook was an experienced QB that never quite got over the hump
and Luther Burden had a down year with injuries. The whole offense seemingly got injured going into or during the Alabama game, too, and the Tide defense pitched a shutout with Cook hobbling around and eventually having former Notre Dame flunkie, Drew Pyne, finish out the putrid performance.
This year, the Tigers pretty much did a complete personnel overhaul while keeping the same scheme and coaching staff, and are now 7th in the country, averaging 45 points per game. Offensive Coordinator Kirby Moore returns and is already getting some smoke as a possible head coach candidate (Arkansas actually just interviewed him this week) for his success as an OC the last few years. For his scheme, here’s what I wrote last year ahead of this matchup:
Offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, interestingly, is a Fresno State guy, and was the passing game coordinator and WR coach for Kalen DeBoer before getting promoted to OC after DeBoer left, then coming over to Missouri.
The Missouri offense has some themes from the Malzahn tree, but is strongly pistol-based. The rushing game features a lot of offset TE looks (again, this is where you see the old 2010s Auburn influence) for unique blocking combinations that typically stem off of either inside zone runs or stretch plays.
The passing game is heavily play-action based, with most of the routes built on that timing, targeting either a post, a curl, or a checkdown. It’s not a very horizontal offense, but does attack different vertical levels fairly well.
Missouri’s hanging a lot of points on everyone, but the caveat is the strength of schedule. Central Arkansas, Massachusetts, and Central Arkansas are cupcakes, and Kansas is a terrible “P4” school. The only team with a pulse they’ve played was South Carolina, and the Gamecocks have been a major disappointment this season (and also held Missouri under 30 points).
One of the main differences from a year ago is that Missouri brought in Beau Pribula from the transfer portal. Pribula has played the second-fiddle QB at Penn State the last few seasons, rushing for 571 yards and throwing for a little over 400 yards in some sort of weird change-of-pace rushing QB role for the Nittany Lions. Pribula transferred this offseason, and is now getting his shot to be a full time QB, and thus far, it’s working out for him. He’s completing 76% of his passes for 1203 yards and has 9 TDs to 3 interceptions. His rushing numbers also aren’t huge – only 121 rushing yards so far. He’s fast and slippery with a lighting-fast release and can make a lot of plays throwing out to the sidelines or scrambling for a quick gain. He can get into trouble bailing from his pocket to the right side, though, and hasn’t done a whole lot of throwing over the middle or pushing the ball downfield unless it’s a backshoulder fade.
For all of Pribula’s importance to the offense, though, the real engine is running back Ahmad Hardy. Hardy was a monster for Louisiana-Monroe a year ago and then transferred up to Missouri, where he’s become even more dominant. Through only 5 games, Hardy already has 730 rushing yards and 9 TDs, averaging an absurd 7.1 yards per carry. He leads the country in broken tackles, has breakaway speed, and is, quite honestly, just that dude. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be the #1 running back in the country.
And to top all of that off, his backup, Jamal Roberts, runs like a freight train that’s out to plant every defender face down in the dirt. When Hardy needs a break, Roberts will come in and has 350 yards on 7.3 (!) yards per carry.
It’s a punishing, dynamic duo, and very well could be the best running back tandem in college football.
Now, back to the passing game, the Tigers have done fine there, but it hasn’t been their main focus. TE Brett Norfleet returns and is one of Pribula’s main security blankets, while he’s only got 174 yards, he’s second on the team with 20 receptions, plus leads the group with 4 touchdowns.
The top receiver is Kevin Coleman, a transfer from Mississippi State, who has 386 yards on 39 catches, and his running mate, Marquis Johnson, is more of a downfield threat with 275 yards on 18 catches. They’re dependable targets, Coleman in particular excels at winning back-shoulder fade balls down the sidelines.
I worry about this matchup a little for Alabama’s defense. This is a very tough running team that’s going to challenge Alabama’s interior. However, they aren’t very horizontal, which has been some of the Tide’s issues this season. Pribula will definitely make some plays running around and pulling off quick QB keepers off of play fakes, too. They’ll extend a lot of drives, but I do wander if Missouri will be able to hit the big explosive plays to really put the game in jeopardy. This game is really going to test Deontae Lawson, Justin Jefferson, and Nikai Hill-Green. Can they hold up and make the tackles right up the gut? That’s going to be the key.
I think Missouri scores 28 in this one. It’ll feel worse, but the game will be shortened a bit.
