It’s been eight years since the annual Ohio State-Penn State dual has had such implications as it does this season, and this year, it actually is
how Tom Ryan would do it.The Buckeyes have surprised some with how strong their season has been; preseason, they were ranked number five; it was a strong showing at the national duals, which saw them handily take down (in succession) Wyoming, #10 Minnesota, #2 Nebraska, and #3 Iowa before gaining the #2 ranking and not letting it up since.
Ohio State boasts
six top five wrestlers, though only five are listed on their own pre-match notes as probable to wrestle; #1 157er Brandon Cannon has been out for a bit with injuries, and he’s likely not to be back before the Big Ten tournament.
Penn State is riding a record-setting win streak, its most recent victim the Michigan Wolverines a week ago. Ohio State is fresh off a dual against Iowa, where they took the final seven bouts en route to a senior day win.
The odds of this dual meet starting at a weight other than 125 are high; Ohio State’s highly ranked 125er, Nic Bouzakis, is known to be cutting quite a bit of weight, so he would benefit for any delay in the time between weigh ins and when he hits the mat. There’s also rumors that he may not wrestle both duals this weekend, and that the one he’ll wrestle is in Maryland on Sunday; the official university match notes, though, have Bouzakis listed as the only 125er on schedule to go in both duals.
As I’ve occasionally done in previews of duals of this magnitude, I’ve assigned a ranking to each weight, with how likely the PSUer is to win vs lose. The higher the ranking, the more confidence I have that the Penn State grappler will emerge victorious.
On paper, there’s just three bouts where the Buckeye will be favored against the Nittany Lions; Ryan, though, has in the past coached his wrestlers to wrestle differently in this dual matchup when they are closely matched, looking to mitigate bonus points (rather than win) the bouts where they’re most likely to be severely undermanned, and to steal a bout or two in which they’re not favored but could have a shot. As a result, even if the score is closer than most PSU fans would otherwise expect, the outcomes could be quite different come March, when these wrestlers might next meet up in the Bryce Jordan Center. Last year felt different in that Ohio State came to wrestle, but I’m expecting this year more of a reversion to the mean.
The ceiling for Penn State in this dual is quite high; the least number of matches they could lose is 1. The floor, too, for the Nittany Lions is higher than for any other team, as it would take everything going wrong to be in danger of losing this meet.
How To Watch
What: #1 Penn State vs #2 Ohio State
Where: Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA
When: Friday, February 13, 7pm EST
Audio: Free (via GoPSUSports)
Video: Big Ten Network
Lineup
125
This bout is the only #1 vs #2 in the lineup, and I went back and forth on the prediction of who would come out on top. In a vacuum, I’m confident that Luke will win any matchup with Bouzakis; he’s fast and technically sound, and superior to where he was last year. But funky things happen in matches of this magnitude, and Luke was pinned in this dual meet last year. If, as I expect, the dual meet starts at a later weight and Bouzakis’ cut isn’t affecting him as much (he was at 133 and lost to Davis there last year, after all), I think the Buckeye gets an early takedown that proves to be the difference maker, and stalls his way through the rest of the bout.
Prediction: Bouzakis by decision
Ranking of match (10 being most likely for PSUer to win, 1 being least): 4
Score: PSU 0, OSU 3
133 LBS
The Cael tax eventually comes for all high profile freshmen that start for the Nittany Lions early; it came for PJ Duke against the reigning national champion a few weeks ago, and odds are it comes for Marcus Blaze tonight. Blaze has beaten Davino in the past at the US Open, so he definitely can take him down here, but I’m betting on this being the one loss for the PSUer before getting revenge in March.
Prediction: Davino by decision
Ranking: 3
Score: PSU 0
141 LBS
Jesse Mendez is a two-time returning national champ that would be the odds-on favorite for the Hodge if it wasn’t for a certain Mitchell Mesenbrink. He lost to Beau Bartlett in this dual last year, but rebounded and won his second national title; this year, he’s got little competition at this weight. Braeden Davis was out with a “skin issue” last week after being pinned by Brock Hardy in the Nebraska dual; he likely comes out with some of the same fire this week as he did in the last dual at the BJC, but Mendez is so technically sound that it most likely won’t be enough. A victory may be keeping this to no bonus, though moral victories shouldn’t really be a thing in wrestling.
Prediction: Mendez by major decision
Ranking: 1
Score: PSU 0, OSU 10
149 LBS
The Van Ness Monster can have a tendency to be taken down early and need to get himself out of that jam later on; he’d more recently broken himself of that habit, but it feels back a bit recently (something that SVN was asked about and commented on in this week’s media availability). Even if that happens, it shouldn’t be a huge problem this week; I’m not so sure Stiles is as good as his ranking here, so there’s an (ever so small) chance for bonus for Shayne at this weight. But, I fear, as much of a chance of him digging himself enough of a hole that he can’t get out of.
Prediction: Van Ness by decision
Ranking: 5
Score: PSU 3, OSU 10
157 LBS
If Brandon Cannon was going in this bout, I’d expect a very different outcome; last year, he majored then-redshirting Joe Sealey, who stepped in for an injured Tyler Kasak. Sealey’s better this year, but Cannon is the one that’s injured, and likely going in his stead is a freshman, either one that’s a typical 157er or one listed as 149 lbs on the OSU site. There’s been speculation that Duke may sit out in this one too; if he goes, there’s a real possibility that this ends early via tech or pin, but I’m being conservative and predicting just a major, with the Buckeye slowing down the pace to frustrate Duke. I’d expect a similar outcome even if it’s Sealey against the Ohio State backup.
Prediction: Duke by major decision
Ranking: 9
Score: PSU 7, OSU 10
165 LBS
Mitchell Mesenbrink is the most dominant wrestler in the NCAA this year, and he’s up against the lowest ranked starter on the Buckeye’s roster. That’s a double recipe for bonus.
Prediction: Mesenbrink by tech fall
Ranking: 10
Score: PSU 12, OSU 10
174 LBS
Last year in this bout, Levi Haines gave up an early takedown before storming back and winning via decision because of a late takedown. He’s a better wrestler this year, with Kharchla ranked the same (and listed as a graduate senior for the second year in a row); I expect the outcome to be similar, homefully without giving up the early score.
Prediction: Levi by decision
Ranking: 6
Score: PSU 15, OSU 10
184 LBS
I’m very interested to see how Rocco Welsh responds to wrestling his former team, and I expect he comes out on fire. Last week, he absolutely dominated a top ten wrestler and almost scored bonus; that same wrestler beat OSU’s Fishback the week before. Fishback is a transfer from NC State that’s qualified for the NCAA tournament twice, and he’s much better this year. But he’s up against a returning finalist, with a bit of a grudge against his former team. This should be a good one.
Prediction: Welsh by decision
Ranking: 7
Score: PSU 18, OSU 10
197 LBS
Some Ohio State fans think this is a weight where they can steal one from the Nittany Lions. I think this proves how under the radar Josh Barr, a freaking returning national finalist ranked number one, really is. He’s been dominant since returning from injury, with all his wins coming by bonus (just like Mesenbrink, but unlike teammate Haines who is getting more Hodge buzz than this sophomore); Geog redshirted last year after finishing 6th at the Big Ten tournament as a freshman. This is another opportunity for bonus for the Penn Stater.
Prediction: Barr by major decision
Ranking: 8
Score: PSU 22, OSU 10
285 LBS
Cole had a shot in his bout against Ghadiali last week, and by this blogger’s eyes that bout should have ended 5-4 instead of 5-1. Ghadiali beat Feldman in sudden victory the week before, which to me indicates that Cole has a definite shot in this bout, but it will be uphill sledding. Feldman is a returning all-American and a national title contender at heavyweight, beat Mirasola 10-3 in this bout last year, and though Cole has the talent to win this one, it would absolutely be a big upset.
Prediction: Feldman by decision
Ranking: 2
Score: PSU 22, OSU 13
Overall score prediction: Penn State 22, Ohio State 13
*The Penn State athletic department, in its official capacity, uses Intermat’s Tournament Power Index in all its match literature; I’m using Intermat’s Dual Meet Rankings because this happens to be a dual. Penn State is #1 in both rankings; Ohio State is #2 in both rankings.
