Only a few short weeks ago, Auburn was the laughingstock of the SEC for scoring all of 3 points against Kentucky. That, plus the 5 SEC games before it, saw the Tigers average an utterly dreadful 15 points per
game that wound up with head coach Hugh Freeze getting the can pretty much as soon as that fateful Kentucky game ended.
In the two games since, Auburn hung 38 points on Vanderbilt in an overtime loss, then scored 62 on Mercer last week. Everyone obviously always feels better after a big win over an FCS cupcake, but the offensive output against Vanderbilt was the first encouraging moment for the Tiger offense since September.
A lot of that was just moving on from Freeze and solidifying the playcalling responsibility from their dumb 3-man play calling rotation and settling with Derrick Nix as the ONLY offensive coordinator. But another big change for the Tigers was moving on from QB Jackson Arnold and fully committing to former Stanford starter, Ashton Daniels.
Granted, Daniel was also the signal caller in that horrific 3-point game vs Kentucky, but, hey, he put up 353 passing yards with a couple of touchdowns through the air, plus another 89 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground. So we essentially have a two-game sample size of Daniels being absolutely terrible and looking like the best QB in the SEC. He then didn’t play last week against Mercer so as to still be able to redshirt the season and come back next year.
It’s hard to know what exactly this Auburn offense will wind up looking like next week. They’ve generally been very RPO-heavy in that same system that Hugh Freeze has run since his time at Ole Miss. They seemed to tone down the RPO and go with more empty looks in the win over Vanderbilt, but much of the offensive strategy was the same. The QB run drives the offense, and they throw a lot of quick curls and slants off of it for the bulk of the passing game.
In particular, Daniels brings a veteran presence as a guy who navigates the pocket patiently and then can make defenders miss in the open field. He had a bit of an interception problem at Stanford, but that’s yet to show up thus far at Auburn (again… Very tiny sample size).
In the backfield, running back Jeremiah Cobb has quietly been one of the best in the SEC. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry and nearly has 1000 yards on the season. He’s not the most powerful guy around, but he hits his top speed in a blink and rockets through the line of scrimmage with even a hint of a crease. If anything, Cobb is probably the guy on Auburn’s offense that makes me the most nervous. He’s the kind of player that that turns a missed edge-setting assignment into a 50-yard scamper.
At wide receiver, Auburn also has a pair of very talented players who have had lackluster seasons due to the overall team malaise. Cam Coleman gets all the attention, and he should. The former All-Everything recruit is a 6’3” athletic specimen who excels at winning downfield jump balls… And really just excels at most everything you could want a receiver to do. He’s got 682 yards and 5 touchdowns so far this season despite some rather horrific QB play for most of the year.
On the other side, Eric Singleton is a former multi-year starter and Freshman All-American for Georgia Tech who Auburn uses more as the short area YAC and screen guy. He’s a small, speedy dude, and actually leads the team with 55 catches, though his average is much worse than Coleman with only 508 total yards to show for it.
Auburn is a weird one. They’ve got some really talented players and a strong rushing attack, but have been held back by a totally broken scheme, poor QB play, and bad pass blocking (offensive tackle Mason Murphy has allowed 10 sacks by himself). Now that they’ve changed the playcaller and the QB, they might suddenly be a lot better? It’s hard to know, though, as, again, Daniels looked really good for one game, but has a history of having some issues with turnovers. Still, he’s a good runner. But Jackson Arnold was too, so I’m not sure how much has actually changed.
I do worry that Daniels’ scrambling ability and Cobb’s speed gives Alabama some matchup problems similar to their games against FSU, Vandy, and Missouri. If the Tide can keep Daniels from scrambling, then I think the Alabama secondary will mostly win their matchups, though Cam Coleman will likely win a play or two on sheer talent.
I think that Auburn winds up scoring a bit more than we’re comfortable with, but they won’t be matching their output against Vandy a few weeks ago. Lets go with 24 for the Tigers.
