It takes a lot of people working in concert to start a season as nightmarishly as Fiorentina has. With all the caveats about the difficulty of isolating individual threads within the fluid tapestry of any single game, the worst offenders have been at the back. Radu Drǎgușin, Luca Ranieri, Alex Jimenez, João Mário, Viery, and Víctor Valdepeñas haven’t impressed defensively. They’ve all suffered mental lapses that have been punished time and again. I’d argue that right now, though, the bigger problem
is David de Gea.
Let’s look at the numbers first. With the demise of fbref and Understat still down following a cyberattack, I’ve struggled to find statistics beyond the surface. The one that jumps out to me is that Fiorentina’s conceded 25 goals (2nd-worst) from an xG of 20.2 (9th-worst) according to WhoScored’s model; the differential between those numbers is 4.8, which is trails only hapless Monza. In short, Fiorentina’s leaked in 5 more goals than xG would predict.
That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, of course. 11 games is a tiny sample. Maybe opposing forwards have been finishing well above-average and will regress to the mean, which would look like statistical improvement rather than pure luck. xG is a tricky stat, too, as it only considers shots rather than real chances, many of which never lead to a shot. Without more detailed numbers (e.g. post-shot xG against, expected threat) there’s no way to contextualize Fiorentina’s xG against, which means it can offer a vague impression at best.
If you watch the games, though, you’ve seen it. De Gea’s errors have resulted in very soft goals in two straight games now. Against Juve, he dithered coming off his line to claim a cross, allowing Bremer to head home. Sure, Drǎgușin could’ve done a bit better, but that one’s on the goalkeeper too. Against Sassuolo, he badly mistimed his run out against Armand Laurienté, giving the Frenchman way too much space. He wasn’t the only guilty party in either goal but his role was amplified in both.
I’m not a goalkeeping expert by any stretch but to me, it looks like de Gea’s feeling every one of his 36 years. His still-incredible reflexes allow him to produce highlight saves (see: his performance against Inter Milan, his stop on Juan Cabal against Juventus). I worry that his legs are starting to go. He’s always been iffy claiming crosses and coming off his line to sweep up but the obvious hesitation in those situations speak of a player who knows what he ought to do but isn’t sure his body will cooperate. 36 isn’t ancient, especially for a goalkeeper in the modern era, but this might be the start of the decline.
To be clear, I don’t think de Gea’s going to deteriorate immediately. His experience allows him to anticipate situations, mitigating the lack of athleticism, and his shot-stopping is still solid at worst. As the club captain and the team’s most famous player, benching him or selling in January aren’t good solutions, particularly for a squad that’s dealt with as much chaos as Fiorentina’s. His backups Oliver Christensen and Luca Lezzerini probably aren’t at de Gea’s level and the drop off would put even more pressure on this stuttering back line.
Because Fiorentina’s fate this season is likely the comfort and ennui of the mid-table, it can afford a couple cheap goals leaked in by de Gea’s declining physical ability; unless his form tanks, there’s no reason to swap him out, especially since January purchases, especially ones aimed at short-term fixes, are notoriously overpriced and have uneven results. Outside an emergency, Fabio Paratici should leave his goalkeepers alone for the rest of the year.
After the season, though, he’ll have to make a major decision. De Gea’s under contract until 2028 and Fiorentina has an option to extend that another year. There was some interest in him this summer, likely for his famous name as much as anything else. There’s the added wrinkle of Tommaso Martinelli, who’s doing very well at Avellino on loan. In a perfect world, the one in my FM save, de Gea would gracefully cede the starting role to Martinelli and slot in as the world’s greatest mentor for his final season in Florence before bidding a cheerful farewell to Tuscany and returning to England or Spain.
Unfortunately, things probably won’t be that tidy. For one thing, de Gea’s the highest earner on the roster and Fabio Paratici has targeted other high earners for liquidation. His number one is also a Daniele Pradè signing and the DS desires nothing more than the complete dePradéfication of the Viola Park. Paratici’s also demonstrated no trust in Fiorentina’s youth development and may not think Martinelli’s ready for the big time. If so, he’ll dip into the player market for a new goalie in July 2027 at the earliest.
I hope that Paratici keeps his hands off the red button. Paolo Vanoli’s doing a good job of rebuilding this Viola plane in midair for the second consecutive year and based on recent performances, he should banish the specter of relegation even as Fiorentina currently hovers just 2 points above the drop zone. With nearly a third of the season gone, though, it’s hard to imagine this group mounting a push for the European places. Destabilizing morale by publicly shopping for the captain’s replacement could put that mid-table security at risk.
I’d like to be wrong in this analysis because Fiorentina goalkeeper David de Gea is a fun thing to write. Even so, I’ve acknowledged to myself that I need to watch his performances closely for the rest of the year. There’s a decent chance they’ll be his last for this club. And even if they’re below his own lofty standards, there’s something to be said for raging against the dying of the light, for clinging onto excellence even as your own body betrays you. That’s how most of the greats end up, after all. Nate Jackson’s line about the twilight of a professional athlete is something along the lines of, “You never retire. They just stop calling you.”
I think that’s what we’re seeing from David de Gea. He’s not washed or cooked or finished. He’ll still have saves that defy description. Games that fire the imagination. This is the announcement, though. The soft opening of the big closing. All of us of a certain age have received these moments in which our bodies cease to function as they used to. It’s awful. Watching it happen to someone else in front of thousands of people on a screen isn’t much better. The end is nigh. Repent ye, sinners. But not yet. Not quite yet.
