Matisse Thybulle has played a grand total of four games for the Portland Trail Blazers this season. The now-veteran wing is mere months away from unrestricted free agency with no sign he’s close to a return to the court.
Though not the only injury-impacted Blazer, the Australian national representative’s absence has been perplexing with the 28-year-old initially sidelined with a thumb injury and now dealing with knee tendinopathy.
Approaching Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline, part of me wondered whether
the Blazers would try to part with Thybulle. But the deadline came and went and Thybulle remained on the roster with 31 games still to play — 30 after last night.
If he does play again this season, I can’t see him suiting up in many more than the 15 games he appeared in last season. But there’s also the chance General Manager Joe Cronin taps Thybulle as one of the names to be bought out or waived to make way for one of the roster’s two-way contracted contributors Sidy Cissoko and Caleb Love.
Today we examine the best way forward for the Blazers and how they handle the oft-injured wing through the rest of the season and into the summer.
For those who’ve forgotten
Thybulle is a two-time All Defensive Team honoree who has never finished lower than the 98th percentile in steal rate and never lower than the 92nd percentile in block rate, among wings.
The 6-foot-5 Thybulle, who boasts a seven-foot wingspan, could have been built in a lab to play defense, packing quick-twitch lateral movement and defensive instincts capable of kicking in within milliseconds. One wonders whether the Blazers could have come closer to fulfilling their preseason defensive potential if Thybulle was able to play more than a handful of games.
On offense, he’s shown the ability to convert three-pointers, though less reliably than some of the league’s elite wings. Although, through the admittedly small sample of 15 games he managed last season, Thybulle did rank third among wings in non-corner threes at 45 percent. Perhaps something that could become a trend over time upon his return to the court.
Thybulle owns career averages of 4.9 points on 34.5 percent shooting from three, 2.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.6 steals. Importantly, since his trade from the Philadelphia 76ers to the the Blazers at the 2023 deadline, those averages have increased to 6.1 points on 37.3 percent shooting from three, 2.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.8 steals.
Numbers that if replicated on a consistent basis over the past 18 months, would no doubt have made for interesting viewing.
Buyout?
Thybulle and his $11.6 million expiring contract have been mentioned as a possible candidate for buyout or waiving. Not because he’s necessarily not good enough. But because the Blazers need to get Cissoko, and to a lesser extent Love, on the regular roster in order to keep them on the court. Cissoko has played 47 of his allowable 50 games so the matter is becoming urgent by the day.
Rayan Rupert and his minimum-level deal appears the most likely to make way, as I recently wrote. The French switcheroo would still allow Rupert to remain on the roster if he was willing to sign a two-way contract of his own.
Love, on the other hand, has suited up in 43 games. He was noticeably in street clothes last night, without any reported injury, which makes me wonder whether Cronin decides to ration the guard’s remaining seven games over the next two months. The rationing may be easier given Scoot Henderson’s return from injury last night.
Love might ultimately be fine to remain a two-way player if the backcourt maintains some semblance of health. If that changes, Thybulle and fellow injured wing Kris Murray are probably the two likely candidates to leave the franchise if they can’t make it back on the court themselves. Although Murray has probably shown enough to remain on the roster for the time being.
Free agency
Assuming Thybulle stays on the roster for the remainder of the season, there’s still a matter of his unrestricted free agency. If he’s able to get back on the court before the end of the season and contribute then he becomes a more attractive prospect, not only to the Blazers but the other 29 teams.
I doubt he gets anywhere near the non-taxpayer $15.1 million Mid-Level Exception, the equivalent of which he signed three years ago. But if he does get back on the court before the end of the season, I could see him earning in the per-annum range of $7 to $8 million.
That means most teams with interest in Thybulle could sign him with part of their own Mid-Level. It’s subsequently up to him if he wants to stay in the Pacific Northwest where he spent his high school and college years.
Conclusion
The Blazers already traded away one of their Australian national representatives before the deadline. I’d be inconsolable if they parted with a second in as many weeks. But in all seriousness, the next four months will be very telling for Thybulle and the Blazers.
The first of two forks in the road involves him remaining on the roster through April. Assuming Rayan Rupert makes way for Sidy Cissoko on the regular roster, the Blazers may look to Thybulle’s roster spot to make way for Caleb Love.
The key factor in promoting Love will be whether the likes of Scoot Henderson, Jrue Holiday, Blake Wesley and, fingers crossed, Shaedon Sharpe can stay on the court. If one or more of them can’t, Love may be called up to play more than the seven remaining games afforded him as a two-way contracted player, which could see one of Thybulle or Murray depart.
The second fork speaks to Thybulle’s ability to get back on the court and subsequently his value once free agency opens on July 1. If the Blazers can bring him back on a team-friendly deal, you do it.
At 28, Thybulle is still in his prime and if he’s able to get his body right, he still has it in him to be an elite defensive proposition. And if he’s able to improve on that three-point rate he’s enjoyed since leaving the 76ers, then all the better.
