I remember exactly where I was when the news broke that the Phillies were trading for Jesús Luzardo. I was at home, and I interrupted my busy work of listening to Christmas music to do a writeup (Wonderful Christmastime is a great song, and I won’t hear any arguments to the contrary). “A new arm under the Xmas tree,” wrote I. Well, it’s Xmas time again, and enough time has passed to know that the Phillies got one heck of a Christmas gift last year.
2025 Stats:
32 G, 183.2 IP, 3.92 ERA (2.9 FIP), 28.5
K%, 7.5 BB%, 0.78 HR/9, 5.3 fWAR
What went right
Early on in the 2025 season, Luzardo unveiled a sweeper, largely replacing his slider. This was not terribly novel; many moundsmen have introuced the pitch. But not many found such success with theirs. Luzardo’s slider was pedestrian, typically grading out as average or slightly below average. His sweeper, though, was elite. By Run Value, it was the best sweeper in baseball in 2025, tied with Garrett Crochet’s. No other pitchers hit double digits with their sweeper’s run value. Batters hit just .178 against Luzardo’s sweeper, and slugged just .264. And the xStats suggest that the batters were lucky to get even that.
Luzardo parlayed that mighty pitch into a very good, if uneven, debut season with the Phillies. His spectacular April (1.44 ERA, 5 ER across 5 starts) couldn’t last, and gave way to a messy, troubled May and June, but he found his form again in the second half of the campaign. He offered more innings to the Philadelphian cause than anyone save for Cristopher Sánchez. He was good at avoiding the long ball; only Sánchez posted a lower HR/9 among Phillies starters. While the win is (rightfully) now considered gauche among the sabermetrically inclined, Luzardo’s 15-7 record still says something. Namely, that Luzardo was both durable and good. And perhaps just as importantly, he was timely: a capable, inning-eating pitcher is never unwelcome, but the Phillies, who unexpectedly lost the services of Zack Wheeler and the form of Aaron Nola, particularly needed him.
There’s reason to believe that Luzardo might’ve been even better than he appeared in 2025. He had the highest BABIP against of any Phillies pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched (.324), and the discrepancy between his FIP and his ERA points in a similar direction. The prospect of a Luzardo that’s even deadlier than the one we saw in 2025 is appealing, to say the least.
What went wrong
After his torrid March and April, Luzardo looked like he might’ve been on his way to a Cy Young. Then came May 31st, and a date with Milwaukee. The Brew Crew tagged him for a dozen hits and as many runs, all earned. His next start saw the Blue Jays rack up 9 hits and 8 runs against him. He was inconsistent for a while after that, epitomized by an up and down June: 5 starts, three with 4 or more runs allowed, two 7-inning shutouts. The Phillies thought that pitch-tipping could be the cause of his woes. He also had issues pitching effectively from the stretch. What Luzardo could be at his best was never in doubt, but his wonky mechanical woes limited the amount of time that he actually was at his best.
The future with the Phillies
Luzardo is scheduled to hit free agency for the 2027 season. Let’s take things one step at a time, though. Luzardo will be a Phillie again next year (though his salary is pending arbitration). With Ranger Suárez looking likely to sign elsewhere, Wheeler recovering from his thoracic outlet decompression surgery, and Nola looking to return to form, Luzardo will likely enter the season as one of just two relatively sure arrows in the Philadelphia quiver. He was needed in 2025, and he’ll be needed to buoy the Phillie rotation in 2026. There’s every reason to believe he’ll be up to the task.
