Hello, Chicago Bears fans! Today, I’m going to do the first installment of articles during the offseason, where I look at benchmarks/milestones for individual Chicago Bears players for the coming 2026 season and give my prediction on whether they will overachieve or underachieve those benchmarks. Today, we will look at five over/under scenarios for the Bears’ individual achievements:
#1 Over / Under Caleb Williams, 4000 passing yards
Gooch Call: OVER!
That’s right – we start with the Big Enchilada. The one that Packers fans have held over our head
for decades. The Chicago Bears have never had a 4000-yard passer. But in 2024, during his rookie season, Caleb had 3541 yards passing, and last year, in his first year in the Ben Johnson offense, Caleb came about as close to being a 4000-yard passer without being a 4000-yard passer, posting 3942 yards in the regular season. With Caleb in year three of his NFL career and year two of the Ben Johnson offense, I expect him to get over the hump and finally wash away this talking point that has highlighted the historical ineptitude of Chicago Bears quarterbacks. In fact, not only do I expect him to eclipse 4000 yards in 2026, I expect him to pass the 4000-yard mark in game 16 – the number of games for the old NFL regular season schedule.
#2 Over / Under Kyler Gordon, 15 full games started
Gooch Call: UNDER!
I’d like to predict “over” here, but the fact of the matter is that Gordon’s injury bug has become a problem. Even before last year and the miniscule three games started for Gordon, he has constantly dealt with nagging injuries during his four-year career for the Chicago Bears. In fact, of those four years, Gordon has only matched 15 games started once – in 2024. While I think we will see a bounce back season for Gordon, the smart money is on him missing at least 4 games at some point in the season.
#3 Over / Under Austin Booker, 10 sacks
Gooch Call: OVER!
We’ve all worried about the pass rush for the Chicago Bears (which admittedly was anemic in the 2025 season), but what if the solution to our pass rushing woes was on the team all along? Booker had 4.5 sacks in 10 regular season games (1 sack in the postseason) after returning to the Bears lineup having suffered an injury in the preseason. Projected out over a 17-game regular season, that would be approximately 7 ½ sacks. But what many folks forget is that Booker had two sacks nullified by (questionable) penalties. Had he in fact posted 6.5 sacks in 10 regular season games, his projected output in 2025 over a full 17 games would have been 11 sacks. I think Austin Booker stays healthy this season and is the featured pass rusher across from Sweat on the Bears defense. Booker netting 12 sacks in 2026 isn’t as crazily optimistic as some might be inclined to think.
#4 Over / Under Dillon Thineman, 3 Interceptions
Gooch Call: OVER!
While Thineman didn’t post many interceptions with Oregon, I suspect we will see his usage in the Dennis Allen defense more akin to how he was used his freshman year at Purdue, when he recorded 6 interceptions in just 12 games. While I do not expect Thineman to reach the heights Kevin Byard set last season in leading the league with seven sacks, I think Thineman is going to pick off more passes than many may expect just looking at his 2024 and 2025 seasons. If I had to pick an exact number, I project Thineman for 4 interceptions in his rookie season.
#5 Over / Under Caleb Williams, 30 sacks taken
Gooch Call: OVER!
While it is true that Caleb Williams is an elite sack avoider (measured by pressure-to-sack ratio), expecting regression in the sack department after such a dramatic reduction in his sack totals from 2024 to 2025 is reasonable. I think the Bears have done a fine job introducing intriguing possibilities as starters and depth at the two positions on the offensive line, left offensive tackle and center, they had to fill in the 2026 offseason, but whether it is Bradbury or the rookie Logan Jones, the center position has taken a step back, and the Bears are unlikely to have Ozzie Trapilo back until late in 2026 – if they get him back this season at all. I’m projecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 sacks for Caleb – up from the 2025 season, but nowhere near the record number of sacks he took in 2024.
What is your take on these over/under predictions? What over/under predictions would you like to see next? Tell us in the comments below!
