Well, hate week ended in the worst possible way and we were left with no real answers as to the many, many, questions about the regression we’ve seen so far on the offensive side of the ball. To my eye, Gronowski looked better, in general, but the outcome was still quite bad. The run game looked ok, but that came with a lot of questionable play calling and the defense played very well, just not well enough to carry the team to a victory (which isn’t on them).
Thankfully, this week the Hawks will be
lining up against a team that The Athletic ranked 136th out of 136 in the FBS this week, and it couldn’t come at a better time. Let’s take a look at what the numbers have to say about the matchup between our beloved Iowa Hawkeyes and the Minutemen of UMass.
Series History
Saturday’s meeting will mark the first time Iowa and UMass have ever met on the gridiron. While this is the first meeting between the Hawkeyes and the Minutemen, UMass is 0-8 all-time against the Big Ten, including a 63-0 loss to Penn State back in ‘23. For a program desperately needing to build confidence after last week’s heartbreaking loss in Ames, this matchup is just what the Doctor ordered – Iowa is currently a 34.5 point favorite and will be looking to improve their record to 15-0 against non-P4 opponents since 2015.
Offense
Iowa – 286.0 ypg (65.5 passing, 220.5 rushing), 23.5 ppg
UMass – 330.0 ypg (228.0 passing, 102.0 rushing), 18.0 ppg
Through two games, Tim Lester’s offense has shown flashes of the ground-and-pound identity that made Iowa dangerous late last season. The Hawkeyes rank 48th nationally in rushing yards per game, powered by Xavier Williams with 148 rushing yards and Jaziun Patterson with 107 yards. However, the passing game remains well, let’s say lackluster.
UMass enters with decent offensive numbers and showed some life in their loss to FCS opponent Bryant last week. QB1 Brandon Rose is likely out after an injury against Bryant, with backup Grant Jordan stepping in to go 13/22 for 205 yards and a pick, he also ran for a score. The Minutemen’s ground game features Vanderbilt/UTSA transfer Rocko Griffin who has amassed 1,312 yards and 11 touchdowns through five collegiate seasons and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, tallying 117 yards on 20 carries, including one touchdown so far this year. It should also be noted that, at present, UMass has the 92nd rated passing (43 spots higher than Iowa) and the 94th ranked total offense (32 spots above Iowa) in all the land.
That being said, 26 of their 36 points on the season came against Bryant (a team currently ranked 108th in the FCS power rankings), so I’m pretty sure they won’t find much success against Iowa’s 25th ranked FBS defense.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa
Defense
Iowa – 147.0 ypg allowed (134.0 passing, 73.5 rushing), 11.5 ppg allowed
UMass – 433.0 ypg allowed (297.0 passing, 136.0 rushing), 34.5 ppg allowed
Phil Parker’s defense followed up a good performance against Albany, holding Great Danes to just 177 total yards, with a very good showing against the Clowns. The unit ranks 31st nationally in scoring defense, and 25th nationally in total defense, even with the secondary giving up a few chunk plays. We should expect to see them improve their sack totals (a paltry 1 through 2 games) against UMass, and hopefully we’ll see them force a turnover.
For UMass, the defensive numbers are pretty dire for first-year head coach Joe Harasymiak. The Minutemen are giving up 433.0 yards/game so far (399 to Bryant), placing them at 117th in the FBS and are allowing 34.5 points per game (which you might notice is the current spread). Most concerning for UMass is their red zone defense, which has allowed opponents to score on 100% of trips inside the 20, and even Iowa’s offense has managed to score on 100% of its (too few, 5/5) red zone opportunities through two games.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa – and it’s not particularly close.
Special Teams
Iowa – 44.5 ypp, 100% fgm, 18.3 ypkr, 14 yppr
UMass – 50.1 ypp, 75% fgm, 57.0 ypkr (they’ve had 1, and it was a good one), 3 yppr.
Drew Stevens remains effectively automatic on field goals, though he almost missed one last week. The return game was not great against ISU, but I think it’s safe to expect Kaden Wetjen will recover from the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day he had in Ames, and Rhys Dakin is unlikely to shank too many more punts.
UMass’ punter has a leg on him for sure and is likely to get a lot of work on Saturday, we can all appreciate that. CB TJ Magee returned the only punt UMass has received this year 57 yards, if he has any opportunities in Kinnick, well, that’ll really suck.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa
Numbers to Watch
10 – The sharps expect UMass to score at least 10 points against Iowa, and if they can manage that, people might be asking a few more questions about the defense than they have been of late.
11 – There’s really no other way to put it, Mark Gronowski needs to have a HUGE game against UMass or the calls for Hank Brown to, at least, split time are just going to start in earnes. He definitely looked better against ISU (and wasn’t helped by 4 drops by receivers), but if he doesn’t find a way to prove that Iowa can stretch the field, we’re going to see every single B18 team putting 8-9 in the box o pretty much every down, regardless of distance.
26 – Xavier Williams could be on tap for another big day tomorrow. I think it’s fair to say that he and Jaz (please stop putting TJ Washington back there on any down but 3rd) will have some decent sized holes to run through against a porous UMass defense.
45 – Iowa doesn’t hit the over very often, and I know that Kirk tends to ease off on what he views as overmatched opponents, but I also don’t envision this defense giving UMass many opportunities to score. Iowa should be more than capable of putting up 45+ on Saturday, if they can’t beat the over on their own I think we’ll all be right to be concerned (unless it’s quite obvious that Kirk is doing his best not to embarass an opponent).
Lines
Point spread: Iowa -34.5
Over/Under: 44.5
The spread here tells me that Vegas wants people to believe that Iowa will not be afraid to run up the score a little bit and putting 35 points on the lowest ranked team in the FBS shouldn’t be a big ask, but we’ve been here before. I’m not a betting man, but I’m not sure I’d put any money on Tim Lester calling the kind of game that will allow Iowa to put up 40+.
Prediction
Let’s be honest, if UMass is in this game past the 1st Iowa drive, we’re in trouble. Hell, if Iowa doesn’t hang half a hundred on the Minutemen there’s going to be a lot to talk about next week as we head into a Friday night tilt in Piscataway.
Prediction: Iowa 38, UMass 3
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
