We’ve made it. The college football season is underway, and the day this article goes up will be the last day of the year before Carolina football has played a game. My own (and that of several of my colleagues) pessimism aside, it’s the last time where all of us don’t know anything and can feel free to dream as big as our hearts and minds will allow. Everybody’s 0-0, baby, and that means there’s a chance that this team will do whatever you want it to.
Unfortunately, my job here is not to let my heart
and mind run free, but to glean whatever information I can about the actual football teams that will be taking the field at 5 PM Irish Time on Saturday. We’ve done an exhaustive job taking a look at this Tar Heel squad, position by position, so I won’t spend too much time rehashing those articles. I think they’re all worth reading! Here, we’re going to look more at the matchup as the Heels get ready to play the TCU Horned Frogs, the same team that briefly allowed fans a measure of hope before promptly squashing it and starting the carousel of disaster and embarrassment that was UNC Football’s 2025. But it’s a different year, and in 2026, teams look more different from one year to the next than they ever have before. Does that mean Carolina can have reason to hope? Let’s take a look.
TCU’s Offense against UNC’s Defense
TCU Head Coach Sonny Dykes lost his right-hand man, offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, to South Carolina this past offseason. Briles had coordinated offenses that ranked in the nation’s top 34 in efficiency the last three years, so combining that with the loss of three-year starting quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana means that Dykes had some rebuilding and reimagining to do. He hired Gordon Sammis from UConn to fill Briles’ spot after the Huskies scored better than 35 points a game last season, and together, they got Jaden Craig, a 6’3, 225-pound gunslinger out of Harvard, to be the Frogs’ new quarterback. Craig ranked top-5 in the FCS in big-time throws and completions over 20 air yards, so he’s constantly looking for big plays — whatever the criticisms of UNC’s defense last year, they did manage to avoid giving those up. On the other hand, Sammis’ offense is a little more intermediate-heavy in the passing game, so that’s somewhat worrying for the same reason.
Things look more familiar in the ball-carrier positions. Running back Jeremy Payne is back after leading TCU in carries (110), yards (623), and average (5.5) last year, and transitioning from an Air Raid offense to Sammis’ should afford him plenty of opportunity to improve on that volume while he tries to maintain that efficiency. His two primary backups have graduated, but sophomore Jon Denman showed some promise last year and will look to be a more consistent change of pace back in a more featured role. At receiver, last year’s leader Eric McAlister has graduated, so that’s 72 catches, 1190 yards, and 10 scores to replace. The primary candidate to do so will be last year’s second guy, Jordan Dwyer. Dwyer doesn’t have McAlister’s size or speed, but he’s got a physical build that he uses to his advantage as a route-runner and in contested-catch situations. TCU has a pretty good history of #1 receivers of late: Quentin Johnston, Savion Williams, and Jack Bech became high-level NFL Draft picks, and McAlister was first-team All-Big 12. Talk around the program is that Dwyer is ready to join that lineage — he’ll get a first test tomorrow going mano-a-mano with Jaiden Patterson in a man-heavy defense. After Dwyer, there’s a host of young players with essentially no live snaps, so if he can be bottled up, somebody is going to have to step up for TCU in an unfamiliar environment, and things could get spooky pretty quickly.
TCU’s tight ends room, similarly, has basically no production to speak of. The words I’ve seen about Sammis’ offense say that he plans to use them pretty heavily, including in 12 and 13-type personnel groupings, but I can’t really tell you what to expect from them other than that one of them, JuCo transfer Kari Ashley, made Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List this year with a broad jump of 11’4 at 6’4, 225 pounds.
The TCU offensive line, on the other hand, is an experienced and capable bunch, who Phil Steele ranks within the nation’s top 50 groups. Starters Ben Taylor-Whitfield and Cade Bennett return at left tackle and guard respectively. Both are good-not-great players who were better pass blocking than run blocking, though some of that might be scheme. Taylor-Whitfield was quite penalty-prone last year, so it might be to UNC’s advantage to put speed on him to try and force holds. They also grabbed big right guard Noah McKinney out of the portal from Oklahoma State, and he had a phenomenal season last year — that interior is going to be a big test for UNC’s defensive tackle duo of Leroy Jackson and Isaiah Johnson.
TCU’s Defense against UNC’s Offense
Without question, TCU’s deepest position group is the defensive line. The Frogs roster 23 players between the positions of defensive tackle and defensive end, and a fair chunk of them are going to play significant snaps, hoping to wear down opposing offensive lines by continuing to rotate in fresh legs without, they hope, too much drop-off from the ones to the twos to even some of the threes. They don’t have any real stars — the closest thing might be defensive tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh, who totaled 24 tackles including 6.5 for loss — but they’ve got a lot of guys who have played good football for them and for some other programs. Defensive tackle Markis Deal is a good player who plugs holes in the run game. Paul Oyewale is a strong veteran on the edge, and Zach Chapman has had a lot of good moments in his two years on the opposite edge. Koron Hayward was a good pass rusher for Western Kentucky last season. And in depth roles behind them, this laundry list from sister site Frogs O’ War says more than I could:
Returning in depth roles at defensive tackle are Perry Cole Jr., Floyd Guidry, Tristan Johnson, Connor Lingren, Kelten Mickell, Blake Robinett and Brody Whatley. True freshmen Maddox Flynt and Duncan McGhee are two newcomers at the position. Back for TCU at the EDGE spot are Travis Jackson, Jared Martin, John Schobel and Chad Woodfork. Cheta Ofili is a newcomer from Texas Tech, while true freshmen Jesse Ford and Carter Buck are both newcomers also. Ofili, a redshirt sophomore, played in nine games last season, but made tackles in just two.
As a group, this defensive line is going to be stronger against the run than the pass, but that doesn’t mean that Billy Edwards is going to be able to be super-comfortable. His ability to get the ball out quickly will help him avoid sacks, but he’ll probably be seeing a lot of color in his face for most of the evening.
Behind that line, though, things are a little muddier for TCU. Both of the Frogs’ starting linebackers last year were selected in this year’s NFL Draft, leaving a lot of production for them to replace. One of the spots seems solid, with two-year backup Max Carroll having been groomed for this moment during his underclassman years. It’s an old-school feel-good developmental story for Carroll, who collected 4 TFLs in just around 200 snaps last year but was a little liable as a pass defender. In the other spot is a familiar face for hardcore UNC fans: Michael Short, who was a backup linebacker for the Heels during Mack Brown’s tenure before transferring to Virginia Tech. He didn’t play much as a Hokie, either, but he appears to have a starting job now. With Carolina seemingly wanting to emphasize tight end Jelani Thurman this year, this duo, with its lack of experience, might allow that particular matchup to slant UNC’s way.
Finally, the TCU defensive backfield took a big blow when safety Jacob Fields was dismissed from the program ahead of opening week after allegedly assaulting a teammate in the locker room. Fields was the C-USA Defensive Player of the Year for Louisiana Tech last year and had apparently been having a standout training camp before his dismissal, looking to start and star at free safety after the departure of second-round draft pick Bud Clark. It looks like last year’s backup, Jordan Lester, will step in, and he has a few snaps under his belt as a redshirt junior, but he’s probably not going to give them better than average-level play. The good news for TCU is that his counterpart, Jamel Johnson, is a very good player, being named All-Big 12 Second Team after a 96-tackle, 8-PBU, 5-interception season last year and being named preseason All-Conference ahead of this season. He plays the run and the pass exceptionally well, so the aforementioned Thurman is going to have him to deal with as well as those linebackers — but he can only either guard a tight end or slot receiver. That said, TCU plays in base nickel, and they’ve got a couple of guys with some good snaps under their belt in that position including Kylin Jackson, who’s a pretty solid enforcer in the box. On the outside, much like UNC, TCU has one side figured out with returning standout Vernon Glover. The other side is a pretty big question mark, made up of a combination of lower-level transfers and former backups. Shipp versus Glover will be an exciting matchup to watch, but if UNC’s offense is going to succeed, it’ll have to include whoever starts on the other side taking advantage of green grass and a green player across from him.
Summary:
When you look at it position by position, there’s maybe one or two spots where UNC has the edge over the guys they’ll be playing. Out of 22. TCU is simply, at this point in time, a more talented team and a more established and better program, and that’s to say nothing of the difference on the sidelines. The Frogs have their own questions to answer, including at ball-catcher, linebacker, and the non-Glover cornerback spot, but those questions are about the difference between 8 and 10 wins — air that Bill Belichick has not even begun to sniff in college. There are some matchups UNC might be able to exploit, but there are a lot more for which TCU could do the same. With the available evidence, I don’t think this will be quite the drubbing that last season’s opener was, but I have a hard time imagining that it’s actually, attainably close.
Prediction: TCU 34, UNC 20
