As someone who has covered the New Jersey Devils for several years now and followed the team for far longer, and as someone who reads a lot of comments on social media, I’d like to think that I have my finger on the pulse of the fanbase most of the time. That doesn’t necessarily mean that I agree with the fanbase on every particular topic or story that pops up over the course of a season, but more often than not, I’d like to think that I’m on the same page with what most people who watch the team on a regular
basis are thinking when it comes to the Devils.
My takeaway from reading such comments this summer is that the Devils offseason has been somewhere between a disaster and disappointing. The reasoning behind this is because the Devils “failed to dump Ondrej Palat”, “failed to land a star player”, and Luke Hughes is still unsigned. I think there’s also a perceived canyon-sized gap between the Devils and, say, the two-time Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and the belief that if these two teams met in the playoffs, it would go similarly to how most playoff series have gone for Florida the last few years….with the Panthers bullying and emasculating their opponents en route to a series win.
Putting Florida aside for a moment, I can somewhat understand the trepidation going into this season. I also understand that negativity sells and the most vocal parts of any fanbase are the ones who are criticizing. Add in the Devils having a 4 month stretch of mediocre at best hockey post-Christmas through elimination that still needs to be explained and the only notable changes up front are the additions of Connor Brown, Evgenii Dadonov, and Arseni Gritsyuk, and I get it. Unless one thinks Gritsyuk is going to step in immediately be Kirill Kaprizov, which I would caution against levying those expectations on him, I don’t blame someone for thinking there’s not a difference maker there.
Still, I don’t necessarily buy into the doom-and-gloom prognostications when it comes to the Devils entering 2025-26. According to DraftKings, the Devils are -350 to make the playoffs, have the fourth best odds to win the Eastern Conference, and eighth best odds to win the Stanley Cup. I’m not saying that the Devils will do any of those things as presently constructed, but I think as more and more season preview thinkpieces come out, and considering opinions that include traditional hockey media, analytics-based media, and sportsbooks, the consensus opinion is that the Devils are definitely a playoff team. It’s just that they’re probably on that next tier behind teams like Florida. I think that is a fair and reasonable assessment until the Devils prove otherwise.
Whether or not the Devils can take any steps beyond being just a playoff team remains to be seen, but I think there are at least several reasons to be optimistic about where the Devils stand in the greater NHL landscape entering this upcoming season.
The Devils Young Players Probably Have Another Step or Two to Take in Their Development
I think the biggest mistake that people who are critical on how far the Devils can go is the assumption that what certain young players are right now is what they’re going to be for the rest of their careers.
It’s easy to forget that Jack Hughes is only 24 years old. That Nico Hischier is 26. That Jesper Bratt is 27. Luke Hughes and Seamus Casey haven’t even turned 22 yet. Simon Nemec is 21 years old.
We’ve seen players like Bratt and Hischier, who are veteran players at this point, continue to add new wrinkles and elements to their respective games as they get stronger, smarter, and more experienced playing in the hardest hockey league in the world. These players aren’t the same players they were three years ago. They’re certainly not the same players they were five years ago. Or eight years ago, when they were rookies during Taylor Hall’s Hart Trophy campaign. They’re significantly better players now than they were then. Bratt continues to raise the bar in terms of point production every season. Hischier found the back of the net more this past season while literally doing everything for the Devils in terms of two-way, all-situations play. Even last year, we saw players like Jack Hughes buy into Sheldon Keefe’s system, round out his defensive play, and earn time on the penalty kill. This is good, as the Devils best players need to be their best players for them to get where they want to go. We continue to see them make strides year after year.
No, not all Devils players have continued to show those signs of growth. Yes, it is concerning that Dawson Mercer has seemingly plateaued at 23 years old with two so-so seasons in a row. Mercer is at the age where, if he has those levels to gain as a player, he should be taking those steps. But its also probably too early to write him off as “this is what he’s always going to be”. He is young enough where there is still time for him to flip the script.
I’m not suggesting that Luke Hughes is going to turn into what Quinn Hughes is right now this season, or that someone like Seamus Casey will do enough to stick as a full-time NHL player this season. But I do think we’ve seen enough growth from some of these players already to suggest that there could be another step taken forward in 2025-26. We’ve seen the Hughes brothers continue to improve each season. We’ve seen Nemec have a strong postseason to end an otherwise disappointing 24-25 campaign on a high note.
I don’t know how much runway players like Hischier or Bratt have in terms of developing and continuing to get better, but I do think there’s more to improvement than sheer point production. It’s also about rounding out the other areas of your game where you can be relied upon in certain situations. We’ve seen Hischier become one of the best two-way players in the league, and Bratt plays in all situations as well. The more experience one has, the less likely one is to panic and the more likely they are to make the right hockey play.
Second Year In Sheldon Keefe’s System
My general rule of thumb when it comes to evaluating head coaches is that unless they’re egregiously terrible at their job, I tend to give them a pass in their first full year on the job.
Why? Because I do believe there is a learning curve when it comes to learning a new system, particularly one that is different than the previous one. Add that on top of the natural learning curve that comes with roster turnover and new teammates learning to play with each other and I do think this is a process that can take some time. And while it may sound like excuse making, I don’t think the Devils opening last season in Czechia and playing as condensed a schedule as they did in the early portion of last season helped matters even though they got off to a solid start.
Keefe took over for Mike Babcock early in the 2019-20 season, which was ultimately shortened by COVID. Toronto was successful in the 56-game “All Canada” season that they played, going 35-14-7, but I think its easy to chalk that season up in general as “stuff happens” between the realignment, lack of fans, and COVID restrictions. But in Toronto’s first full 82 game season under Keefe, they went 54-21-7. Second in the Atlantic division, second in goals scored, and comfortably in a playoff spot.
A lot of that offense came from Auston Matthews, who scored 60 goals himself and went on to win the Hart Trophy and Rocket Richard, and Toronto’s Big 4 forwards did what you’d expect from them. But they also got contributions down the lineup. 63 points from Michael Bunting out of nowhere. 51 points from Alex Kerfoot. Ilya Mikheyev with 32 points in 53 games. Ondrej Kase with 27 points in 50 games.
Is some of that smoke and mirrors? Perhaps. Someone has to play with Matthews or Tavares and someone will be the beneficiary in picking up those points. But my point is that the Devils core players, like Toronto’s, are familiar with what Keefe is demanding from them the longer they play under his tutelage. I’m not saying that the Devils have a 60 goal scorer on their roster (although I wouldn’t rule out Jack Hughes doing that if he plays all 82 games and goes nuclear one year), but there is room for growth. Heck, we’ve already talked about Bratt and Hischier taking another step last year, and that was in Year 1 under Keefe. Why can’t some of the other holdovers be more comfortable this season?
I also think its worth mentioning that unlike those Toronto teams, there’s a better baseline off of which to build. I think the Devils have a better blueline and better goaltending than what Keefe had for most of his Toronto tenure. I thought that last year and my opinion hasn’t changed. The Devils appear to be bringing back their entire blueline and their goaltending duo. They’re bringing back their Top Six forwards. Yes, they’ve revamped their bottom six, but it was a bottom six that frankly wasn’t very good to begin with. More importantly, the Devils have that continuity in key areas in their lineup. I think this continuity goes hand in hand with what I just wrote about the younger players having another step or two to take in their respective development as players.
The Devils Are Due For Better Injury Luck
The Devils had an uphill battle going into the playoff series last year versus Carolina, a team that is more experienced than them and has had their number.
What didn’t help matters were injuries.
It didn’t help matters that a team starved for offense lost Luke Hughes in Game 1 of the series. It didn’t help that veteran defensemen Brenden Dillon and Johnathan Kovacevic were knocked out relatively early in that series as well. It certainly didn’t help matters that Cody Glass got knocked out of a game due to friendly fire by Jacob Markstrom, who was taking a swing at someone on Carolina only to catch his own teammate instead.
And it definitely didn’t help matters that Jack Hughes’ season ended roughly six weeks earlier after sustaining another shoulder injury in Vegas.
Obviously, every team has to deal with injuries. Hockey is a physical game. And I don’t point out the Devils missing their best offensive player and half their blueline in a playoff series to make excuses for why they lost (never mind them barely getting Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler back in time because they both were injured late in the regular season). Rather, I point it out because of the timing, and how unfortunate it is. I think its silly to take the stance of “The Devils can’t win in the playoffs with Jack Hughes” when the only time we’ve seen him in the playoffs, he had 11 points in 12 games and was one of the Devils best forwards. But I can definitively say that the Devils can’t win without him. Not as presently constructed.
Is it blind faith that I’m just hoping that players like Jack will stay healthy for a playoff run? Or that Dougie won’t have a fourth season interrupted by injury? Or that the starting goaltender doesn’t miss six weeks like he did this past season? Perhaps. But what alternative do we have as Devils fans?
Some teams are luckier with injuries than others, both in terms of severity and timing. It’s not really the thing that a team can plan for in the offseason when building a roster. Acquiring players with a history of playing 81 or 82 games every year doesn’t mean they’re going to stay healthy. Conversely, players who are labeled as “injury prone” aren’t going to necessarily remain that way forever.
The Devils have certainly had more than their share of injuries the last few years. One would hope that over time, that sort of thing balances out.
The Rest of the Metropolitan Division Didn’t Do Enough To Concern Me That the Devils Playoff Spot is at Risk
I could be wrong in how I view the Metropolitan Division, but to me, Carolina is clearly the class of the division. And as you’re surely familiar with the old Ric Flair quote, “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.”
Carolina is the man right now and they probably had the best offseason of any team in the Metropolitan. I don’t know how much Nikolaj Ehlers will help them in terms of winning playoff games, but they have enough other playoff-style players on their roster where they can afford to take that risk. They also did a good job locking up key young players Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven on long-term deals. But more importantly from a Devils perspective, the framework of what makes Carolina so tough to play against is still intact. There will come a time where this Devils group is defined by whether or not they slay that Carolina dragon, but there is still time for them to change the narrative there.
Other than that though, I’m not sure what team or teams in the Metropolitan I’m supposed to feel threatened by.
Washington will be in the mix, for sure. They’re well coached and probably have the next best roster in the division. But they were also a team that rode unsustainable shooting benders and the vibes that came with Alexander Ovechkin chasing the goals record to 111 points. Everything went right for them (until they ran into Carolina in the playoffs). They were already one of the oldest teams in the league. I’m not going to say that they’re going to drop out of the playoffs entirely, but it goes noted that they barely have lower odds than the Rangers to win the Metropolitan division again. Washington is currently +500 on DraftKings, trailing Carolina at +130 and the Devils at +280.
I do think pundits expect the Rangers to bounce back and reclaim a playoff spot. They’re a year removed from winning the President’s Trophy, they have a new coach in Mike Sullivan, they have a recent history of getting a “new coach bump” in the first year under said new coach, last year was a year where everything went wrong for them, and they have a goalie capable of throwing up a .930 save percentage in any given season. All of this is true. I personally don’t love their blueline though, despite the addition of Vladislav Gavrikov, and one of the Rangers biggest issues last year was that they couldn’t defend. They might have a good pairing in Gavrikov and Adam Fox, but the jury is out whether or not they have a good defense, one to six.
So who does that leave in the Metro that I’m supposed to be intimidated by? A Penguins team that is clearly looking to tear down and sell the few quality assets they have remaining? A Flyers team that, in my opinion, downgraded at coach and is counting on Dan Vladar in net? An Islanders team that is heading in the right direction after moving on from Lou Lamoriello but still has to clean up the mess he left that roster in? Columbus is probably the most interesting of the also-rans in that they have young players capable of exploding and the team taking the next step as a result. They also have the cap space and draft capital to make pretty much any move they see fit, assuming they can convince players to go to Columbus.
That’s not to say that these teams didn’t make some worthwhile adds or had good summers themselves. Blue Jackets fans will say they expect Adam Fantilli to make the leap in Year 3, just as Flyers fans will say the same for Matvei Michkov in Year 2. Rangers fans will say everything went against them last year much like Devils fans said the same thing the year before. Nobody is necessarily wrong to believe that. But if we’re going to assume everyone else’s young players get better, why can’t the Devils say the same for their players. As I mentioned earlier, why can’t Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec take another big step forward?
The last thing I’ll add is that even though we didn’t see a lot of teams sell off players in the past calendar year, I think that mindset will change. Not everybody is going to be a contender in 2025-26. Coaches are going to get fired. General managers are going to get fired. And with a so-called generational talent in Gavin McKenna likely to be the 1st overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, I think its more likely than not that some of the teams cluttering up the mushy middle take a step back, sell off players at the deadline, and position themselves for more lottery ball combinations.
If I had to make a prediction right now, I’d take Florida, Toronto, and Tampa in the Top 3 in the Atlantic (not necessarily in that order) and Carolina, New Jersey, and Washington in the Metro (again, not necessarily in that order). I’d probably lean Ottawa and the Rangers getting the two Wild Card spots but I don’t feel too attached to either of those teams getting in.
