The Falcons squandered a golden opportunity to take control of the NFC South in Week 8, falling completely flat in a bad weather game against the Bucs. Now sitting at 3-5—along with the rest of the division—Atlanta is in a difficult place. Games against some of the AFC and NFC’s best await over the next month, sandwiched around the team’s Week 11 bye.
The first game in this sequence comes early Sunday morning in Madrid, as the Falcons take on the Bengals. Cincinnati is a bit volatile, but possesses
one of the best offenses in the NFL led by quarterback Joe Burrow and the elite receiver duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Right now, the Falcons are 3-point underdogs against the Bengals, per FanDuel. Atlanta needs a victory to stay afloat in the playoff hunt, but can it come against this Cincinnati team? Let’s take a closer look.
Falcons vs Bengals Week 9 predictions
The Bengals hold the NFL’s second-best scoring offense, best third-down offense, and are also top-10 in total yardage. This will be one of the biggest tests for Atlanta’s defense all season. The good news for the Falcons is that Cincinnati’s offense is very one-dimensional, with the vast majority of their production coming via the passing game. Over the past few weeks, Atlanta’s biggest issue has been stopping the run.
That shouldn’t be a problem in Week 9, as the Bengals are 30th in rushing yardage and 28th in yards per carry. So all eyes then turn to the Falcons ability to slow down Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I’m not sure how well the Falcons will fare, but having their full complement of cornerbacks available will be a big help. A.J. Terrell, C.J. Henderson, and Billy Bowman are back in the lineup together for the first time since September.
Joe Burrow has been fantastic, but he’s still vulnerable to pressure. With the Falcons (hopefully) getting star edge rusher James Pearce Jr. back in the lineup this weekend, the pass rush is the best path to victory. Atlanta has been outstanding generating interior pressure and pretty solid outside, but has lacked a true finisher to pile up sacks. Pearce brings that ability, and will hopefully bring a big boost to the defensive line on passing downs.
On the other side of the ball, the message is simple: the Falcons offense must get back on track, and can’t afford to start slow. Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a career-worst performance in a monsoon against the Bucs. The Bengals defense has been opportunistic and good at limiting scoring, but gives up a ton of yardage. This will be the softest defense the Falcons have faced in weeks, and they must take advantage.
Atlanta will need a good day from Penix and the passing game to keep pace with Burrow, but the biggest player to watch is probably Bijan Robinson. This game has the potential to be a “Bijan takeover” performance, with Cincinnati 29th in yards per carry allowed on defense. Bijan got a bit stuck in the mud against Tampa Bay, and I think he’ll have an explosive game in Madrid.
All in all, it likely comes down to the Falcons ability to limit the Bengals offensive chances by holding the ball as much as possible, and capitalizing on their own scoring opportunities. Cincinnati is beatable—the game last week against the Titans showed that—but you have to be able to keep up with them offensively. This is a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, and the offense as a whole.
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