It has been a cumbersome week for Juventus.
After suffering a 3-0 defeat at Atalanta in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals, Juventus found themselves trailing 2-0 at home to Lazio, only to pull one back via Weston McKennie and snatch a last-second equalizer courtesy of Pierre Kalulu to claim a 2-2 draw at the Allianz Stadium. The Bianconeri currently sit fourth in the Serie A table, three points behind Napoli, four behind Milan (who have a game in hand), and 12 behind league leaders Inter Milan.
Barring
an unprecedented turn of events in the league, Juventus only have one route to avoiding a second-straight trophyless season: winning their first UEFA Champions League title in three decades (third overall). But before they can start dreaming of lifting the trophy in Budapest, they’re going to have to find a way past the best team in Türkiye: Galatasaray.
Juventus and Galatasaray have faced off on precisely four occasions: Juve won 2-1 at home and lost 2-0 to Gala during the 2003-04 group stage. Ten years later, they were again drawn together in the group stage, with Gala drawing 2-2 in Turin before prevailing 1-0 in Istanbul and securing their spot in the knockout round at Juve’s expense courtesy of Wesley Sneijder’s late strike.
Similarly to how Sneijder had already been a thorn in Juve’s side from his time at Inter, Gala have plenty of players who have showcased their potency against Juventus like midfielder Lucas Torreira — who scored against the Bianconeri during his breakout 2017-18 season for Sampdoria — and star striker Victor Osimhen. Recognized as one of the world’s best strikers by the likes of Vítor Severino, Osimhen drove Napoli to the 2022-23 Scudetto with a league-high 26 goals before making the move to Gala in 2024, and with three goals and an assist in his last four games, he’s hitting top form at the right time.
Osimhen has cemented himself as the team’s starting center forward at the expense of club captain Mauro Icardi, who scored eight goals and two assists in his 13 Serie A appearances against Juve during his time at Inter, and who has scored in two of his last three matches. There’s also recent arrival Noa Lang, who helped PSV Eindhoven eliminate Juventus from the Champions League last year after assisting Ivan Perišić‘s opening goal in their second-leg victory.
They may play in a weaker domestic league, but Gala are no slouches. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, they’ve beaten Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Ajax, and Bodø/Glimt, and they also held Atlético Madrid and Manchester United to stalemates. But just exactly how do they match up with the Bianconeri? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Whereas Juve have been fighting it out for top-four finishes over the past few years and watching as their domestic rivals take turns lifting the Scudetto, Gala have won each of the last three Süper Lig titles and currently sit six points above second-placed Fenerbahçe, who have a game in hand. There’s no gainsaying that Serie A is a stronger league than the Süper Lig, so it’s only rational to compare the team’s statistics in the one competition where they overlap: the UEFA Champions League.
Juve find themselves ahead of Gala in the attacking department, scoring 14 goals in contrast to Gala’s 9 and racking up 6.1 shots on target per match in contrast to Gala’s 4.9: they’re also outranking them with 13.3 Expected Goals to Gala’s 12.1. Interestingly, 11 of Juve’s goals have come from an assist, whereas only 3 of Gala’s goals have featured an assist. However, it should be noted that Gala are generating more big chances per game (3.1 to 2.9) and missing more big chances (2.1 vs. 1.6).
In terms of possession, meanwhile, Gala are averaging 50.6% vs. Juve’s 48.8%, although Juve are doing a better of job of taking care of the ball, completing 85.3% of their 385.1 passes per 90 vs. Gala’s 84.3% for their 385.0. Whereas Juve have prioritized a patient build-up strategy under Luciano Spalletti, Gala are more willing to launch it forward for Osimhen to hold up and knock it on to a teammate. They’re completing 54.3% of their 20.4 long balls per 90 vs. Juve’s 58.9% for their 17.0 long balls per 90, as well as 5.1 accurate crosses per match to Gala’s 4.8.
Juve have been marginally better in defense with 10 goals conceded vs. Gala’s 11 and 3 clean sheets to their 2, but despite yielding fewer Expected Goals (11.7 vs. 13.8), they’re nevertheless relying more on their goalkeeper to come up clutch and deliver vital contributions, registering 3.6 saves per 90 to Gala’s 3.1. However, Gala are keeping things tidier in the two boxes: they’ve been awarded 3 penalties to Juve’s 0, whilst they’ve conceded 1 penalty to Juve’s 1.
If there’s one area where Galatasaray have the upper hand, however, it’s the off-the-ball side of the game. Under the watchful eye of Okan Buruk, Gala have been able to remain competitive in Europe and become a feisty opponent that is capable of pressing like a hungry pack of hyenas and getting stuck in with forcefulness and clarity. Gala are winning 49.5 duels per game (50.6% success rate) to Juve’s 42.9 (47.0%), whilst they’re also ranking ahead in terms of interceptions (9.0 vs. 6.5) and clearances (24.0 vs. 17.4).
Despite being far more willing to roll up their sleeves and get their hands dirty, Gala are actually proving to be better disciplined than Juve. Whilst they’ve received 15 yellow cards to Juve’s 14 and 1 red card to Juve’s 0, they’re nevertheless averaging 11.9 fouls per match vs. Juve’s 15.4. Moreover, Juve’s backline hasn’t exactly proven to be watertight — just this season, they’ve conceded three or more goals to Inter, Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta and two or more goals to Villarreal, Como, Bodø/Glimt, Lazio, and Napoli.
Whereas Juve’s defense has come undone time and time again when faced up against Europe’s top sides, Gala has held its own save a 5-1 demolition in Frankfurt in their opening matchday. Since then, they’ve conceded two or more goals on just four occasions, doing so just once in their last eight — at Manchester City nonetheless — and it’s precisely that defensive competence that has seen the likes of Gabriel Marcotti label Gala as a potential dark horse. If they can beat Liverpool, there’s no reason why they can’t beat Gala.
“I think the biggest difference between the two teams lies in the current state of their projects: Galatasaray is a well-established team that has won practically everything in Türkiye in the last four years, while Juventus is in the midst of a restructuring,” stated Turkish football expert Alejandro Parra. “This doesn’t mean Galatasaray is the favorite in the tie, but they are more or less at a similar level in European competition, so failing to advance would be a disappointment for both.”
“For Galatasaray, the key individual players will obviously be those who can make a difference, such as Osimhen, Lang, Leroy Sané, Gabriel Sara, Davinson Sánchez, or Mario Lemina, but especially lesser-known players like Bariş Alper Yilmaz or Yunus Akgün, who are more crucial than people realize in a system that thrives on physicality. One player I would keep a close eye on is Wilfried Singo, who, when in form, is a game-changer both at right-back and center-back.”
“In Europe, they are a curious case: in recent years, we’ve seen them draw against teams like Riga, lose against Sparta Prague in the Europa League, or against Young Boys in the Champions League, but then secure victories against Manchester United (2-3), Liverpool (1-0), Tottenham (3-2), or draw against Atlético Madrid (1-1). It seems like a topsy-turvy world, but they really step up against these big rivals, improving tactically on the defensive end and, especially when playing at home, forming a solid unit across all lines.”
Perhaps the other main advantage that Gala boasts is their potential for rotation: over the next three weeks, Gala will face three bottom-half sides in Eyüpspor, Konyaspor and Alanyaspor, in addition to their two matches vs. Juve. Juventus, meanwhile, will travel to Inter and Galatasaray before hosting sixth-placed Como and Galatasaray, followed by a trip to Roma.
Can Juventus return to the Champions League Round of 16 for the first time since 2021/22? Or will it be Galatasaray who returns to the Round of 16 after 12 years? Stay tuned for what promises to be a compelling fixture.
