When: Tuesday February 24 – 7:00 PM
Where: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville VA
TV: ACC Network
Opponent: Virginia Cavaliers
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): UVA 79-73, / UVA 78-71
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 19-8, 10-4
- Rankings: KP #25, BT #23, WAB +1.9 ranked 36
- NET: 26 (Q1: 5-5, Q2: 6-2, Q3: 4-0, Q4: 4-1) – 4th highest NET in the ACC
The Season So Far:
The Wolfpack is included in most, if not all, NCAA tournament bracket predictions and still has a possibility of a double bye in the ACC tournament. To date, SMU is NC State’s best win, the other four Q1 wins come with strings attached.
- UNC – Missing their best two (NBA bound) players.
- Clemson – Lost 4 in a row, seems to be tanking to position themselves for a high draft pick (nobody tell them this isn’t the NBA)
- FSU and Wake – Go Deacs and Seminoles! We hope they both can hang above NET 75 for the next couple of weeks. FSU finishes with Miami (H), GT (A), Pitt (A), SMU (H). Wake finishes with BC (A), SYR (H), UVA (A), and Cal (H).
The Pack still has two shots at signature
wins during the regular season, either of which would be the highest quality win of the season. Duke is 1-seed good and big Boozer is a lottery pick, but the Pack played poorly in the first game against UVA and has played much better since.
What’s On the Line?
UVA is NET 15 and ranked AP # 11. It is a Q1 game. This is also an opportunity to repay an embarrassing home loss.
Opponent Overview:
Ryan Odom might be having the best season of any first-year coach in the country, he’s already the most successful first year coach in UVA history. The Cavaliers have won 8 in row, they are 13-1 at home, they already have 24 wins, their only mildly odorous loss was Butler (NET 80, 15-13), and 3 of their last four games are at home. After playing NC State, they go to Cameron Indoor for a battle between the best two ACC teams, and then finish at home against Wake and VT.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 24-3, 11-2
- Rankings: KP #18, BT #18, WAB +5.8 ranked 13
- NET: 15 (Q1: 6-2, Q2: 6-1, Q3: 6-0, Q4: 6-0) – 3rd highest NET in the ACC
Player Notes
- Devin Tillis (5.1 / 3.1 / 1.4) got injured (“lower body injury”) against GT, and did not play against Miami. He is TBD for the game. He’s only started 1 game, but is averaging 17.4 mins.
- Dallin Hall and Chance Mallory are tied for best Assist / Turnover Ratio (3.4) in ACC play
- Ugonna Onyenso and Johann Grunloh are 1st and 2nd in blocked shots in ACC play
Previous game results: 61-76 UVA
Sam Lewis hit his career high with 23 (you’re welcome)
Tre Holloman got hurt in the first half, he did not play the second
It was over by halftime, UVA led 40-20.
- UVA’s Lewis had 20 (4-5 from 3PT), Thomas had 11 (3-5 from 3PT)
- As a team, UVA was 8-19 (42%) from 3PT.
- NC State shot 30.8% / 11.1% (1-9) / 42.9%
- Copeland hit the only Wolfpack 3PT shot
NC State came out of halftime strong and cut the lead to 8 at about the 15-minute mark but then went cold for six minutes and never got closer.
- UVA’s De Ridder took over the scoring burden from Lewis and scored 12 of his 14 in the second half.
- The Pack won the second half 41-36, but were too deep in the hole to catch up
For the game, Copeland led Wolfpack scoring with 15, McNeil 13, Breed 12. Williams and Lubin each had 7 pts / 5 reb.
What to watch for:
- NCST – 3PT defense / offense – Defend the 3PT line! In the first game UVA scored 51.3% of their points from 3PT. (They average 37.3%). 13 made 3PT was their 2nd highest in ACC play. Improve 3PT shooting! 5 made 3PT was the Pack’s second lowest made in ACC play. 8 players attempted 3PT shots, only Q, P2, and DW made any.
- NCST – Rebounding – Will need one of the Pack’s best rebounding games of the season. UVA is big, physical and usually has a 7-footer hanging out at the basket. NC State has to keep rebounding numbers within a stone’s throw.
- NCST – Needs to score 79 or more points – Other than the 70 point win against Wake, the Wolfpack scored 79 or more in every ACC win. (In ACC losses NC State scored 61 pts (UVA), 74 pts, 76 pts, 77 pts)
- NCST – Q Needs Greater than 6 Assists – In Miami, Louisville and UVA losses he had 5, 3, and 4 assists respectively, his 3 lowest assist totals in ACC play. Against Clemson, GT, and FSU he had 6 assists – we won 2, lost 1. Every other game he had at least 7.
- NCST – record watch – McNeil has 83 made 3PT shots after 27 games. He’s tracking for 95 in the regular season. DJ Horne’s record is 105 (88 reg. season, 17 post season)
- UVA – strength – Defense – 3rd ranked in ACC play, 1st in opponent FG% (39.9%), 1st in opponent 3PT% (29.1%), 1st in blocked shots
- UVA – weakness – 3PT% – 13th in ACC play
- UVA – strength – Rebounding – 1st in ACC play Combined Team Rebounds (41.1). 1st in offensive rebounds, 1st in defensive rebounds
- UVA – weakness – Turnovers – 12th in ACC play
Prediction:
After this game, NC State fans are going to say either, “That’s pretty much what I expected” or “WOW, I didn’t expect that!!” I’m predicting the latter. Wolfpack pulls off their biggest upset of the season, 80-69.
