Snakepit Roundtable: Impressive road trip

The Diamondbacks continued to impress on a 6-3 roadtrip. What’s the key for this success to continue?

James: Get healthy. Stay healthy. That’s a solid first step. Arizona’s biggest opponent over the last year has been the IL. Also, Michael Soroka has to continue to be the Michael Soroka that he has been, resembling when he first debuted many years ago.

Wesley: James is absolutely right on all counts, especially that last point. Michael Soroka really needs to continue pitching well and stay healthy, not for the team or anything, but so that we as a fanbase can come together and publicly shame James for being

so completely wrong about Soroka.

In all seriousness, aside from the team needing to stay healthy and continue playing well, the biggest thing I think is picking the right time to call up a Ryan Waldschmidt or LuJames Groover, or one of the many RHPs that Hazen signed over the offseason. At this point it is unrealistic to expect perfect health from this roster, so knowing the optimal time to call up our prospects is going to be important down the stretch 

Ben: I think the easiest answer certainly is health, but the team has played really solid, well-rounded baseball. The pitching – both in the rotation and from the bullpen – has been somewhere between good and very good, there are offensive sparks up and down the lineup, and the defense has been excellent with the team pacing the majors in defensive runs saved. I think how the pitching holds up will be the key to maintaining this success. There’s probably some negative regression in store for several important contributors – particularly Eduardo Rodriguez whose FIP and expected ERA (4.24 and 4.15) are so far beyond his actual ERA of 1.96 that he almost certainly can’t continue it at that level. 

Makakilo:  Two observations about the Diamondbacks (7-15 April games):

• 5.3 runs scored per game.  
• 15 shutdown performances by relief pitchers.  Their shutdowns were second most in the Majors during their road trip.

Preston: This success will not continue in the same ways. We’ve almost certainly seen the best of both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The offense needs to step up and be the offense that we’ve seen the last couple of years. Perdomo needs to start finding more open spaces. Ildemaro Vargas is not going to continue to post a wRC+ in the 180s; his career wRC+ is 80, and his BABIP is .415. The third and fourth most valuable Diamondbacks on the offensive side (by fWAR) this season are both on the IL. 

There’s been both good luck and bad luck, though. The second best xFIP on the team belongs to…Taylor Rashi? Paul Sewald has either been lucky (if you look at BABIP and contact) or relatively in line with expectations (if you look at xERA and xFIP).

Dare I say that we are seeing what a good team does? This team isn’t winning one way. The rotation, the bullpen, the offense, the defense…none of them are elite, but all of them have contributed. This is close to the “anybody, anytime” days of the recently disgraced Tony Clark, with the significant difference that this team is not a mirage. They are legitimately good, and can win in multiple ways.

Spencer: Play solid baseball. And trust pure talent and motivation over experience and “readiness” (Fernandez and Vargas vs Smith/Sanatana).

ISH95: They have to be able to weather whatever comes next. It’s a long season, with 140 some odd games, give or take, left to go. The answer to what makes for winning baseball the past two weeks will not be the answer for the next two. Adapt to the next challenge. It’s something the team has struggled with in the past. 

Merrill Kelly looked alright in his return. Any flash opinions?

James: I was pleased to see him gut out 5+ innings. I think he still looks rusty though. The ball to strike ratio would suggest the same (for Kelly). He’s going to need a bit more time to knock the rust off, which is fine and to be expected

Wesley: He did seem a bit rusty, but overall he looked really good, all things considered.

Ben: He looked all right. There wasn’t any noticeable drop in velocity or movement on his pitches and he looked relatively comfortable. I have faith he’ll continue to get more comfortable and more confident as the season progresses. 

Makakilo:  This season, his first game was comparable to his first game last season.  He pitched 5.1 innings in each, facing 24 batters (86 pitches) this season and 23 batters (85 pitches) last season.  My flash opinion is he is on track to pitch like he did last season.

Preston: He had a really bad inning that could have (and, for many D-backs’ pitchers, would have) snowballed into a 17-2 loss. He toughed through it and the Diamondbacks won. That’s the kind of veteran leadership the team needs.

Spencer: I’ve stopped discounting Kelly. He’s gonna be solid to great for years. Very impressive man. 

ISH95: It’s nice to have the best pitcher on the team back, even if he didn’t pitch to his normal standards. Rust is to be expected, especially since if my memory serves he only got one true rehab game, with the others being a sim game at Extended Spring Training and a long bullpen. 

Nolan Arenado has shown flashes of contribution recently. Mirage or might he be turning the corner toward Longoria type presence?

James: I never understood all the Arenado hate. Even the best players in the league go through spells like he did, especially as they get older. As long as he continues to be steady, I am not worried. The one thing I like about Arenado is that he tends not to get nervous and doesn’t try to be something he isn’t at the plate. He puts in the work and trusts the results will follow. It seems that now they are.

Wesley: I still stand by my prediction that he will bounce back offensively. I don’t think he’ll ever be the guy he was in his peak, but I think he has enough gas left in the tank to provide some positive WAR on both sides of the diamond. If he doesn’t bounce back, then you call up LuJames Groover, Tommy Troy, or one of the many good hitting middle infielders.

Makakilo:  During the road trip, his 8 RBIs led the team.  And his .208 BABIP shows he was relatively unlucky, so his performance could be higher.

On the other hand, on the road trip, his 15.4% hard hits was lower than his season average, suggesting it was a mirage.  

Overall, I’m optimistic that he will continue to make significant positive contributions.  

Preston: For what we are paying him, we’re getting value. He’s not the player he once was. He also has turned on some fastballs recently and hit them a long way. His bat speed isn’t bad. But I’d really like to see him draw some walks and stop chasing pitches a mile out of the zone. That’s not an age-related decline; that’s more of a pressing too hard decline.

Spencer: He old, man. But even old dogs still have tricks. He’s almost always defied some metrics, so I trust he can be productive. Something close to the middle ground of the polar sides we saw from Suarez. 

Ben: If our expectations for Arenado are 2023 Longoria, then I think those expectations will be met. In the first few weeks, Arenado has shown he can still be a very positive contributor in the field while having some contributions with the bat. Putting the two head-to-head emphasizes that as Arenado still finds his footing with a new team. The biggest red flag so far? His chase rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate are all sitting at career worst, but that might be a function of trying to force something rather than allowing the game to come to him more naturally.  

ISH95: Spencer’s right, the man is old and it shows. His defense, while still good, has clearly lost a step, and the bat hasn’t been there for a while. Can he maintain a decent balance of the two and be Longoria 2.0, yeah, probably. 

What’s your favorite TV show?

James: That’s a tough call for me as I have seen a ridiculous amount of television in my time as I review many shows/episodes. On the short list though would be such titles as:
Murdoch Mysteries
Death in Paradise

The West Wing (followed quite closely by another Aaron Sorkin gem, The Newsroom)

Lucifer
Babyloinfielder.

Wesley: I can’t answer a question as broad as that. Even if we narrow it down to a favorite in specific genres, I’d still have a hard time picking just one favorite. Favorite scripted live-action comedy? Hard to choose between ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’, ‘It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia’ ‘Wilfred’ ‘Brockmire’ along with another five or six shows I’m forgetting. Favorite sketch comedy show? Once again, it’s very hard to choose between ‘The Whitest Kids U Know’ ‘Key & Peele’ ‘Upright Citizens Brigade’ ‘Kids in the Hall’ ‘Chappelle’s Show’ ‘Mr. Show w/ Bob and David’ and that doesn’t even get it things like ‘The Muppet Show’ 

Although I didn’t exactly answer the question, I think you get my point. Comparing a comedy like ‘It’s Always Sunny’ to a dramatic thriller ‘Mr. Robot’ doesn’t do either show any favors.

Makakilo:  Death in Paradise.

Preston: I’ve recently enjoyed sharing The Good Place with my oldest; there’s something about sharing shows with people that mean a lot to you that makes them better. I personally love Bojack Horseman, but I also haven’t seen it since my life was in a place where I needed to see it, so I don’t know if holds up.

Spencer: Person of Interest has long been the answer here. It’s just excellent in every aspect (with one weird episode ending music choice). But currently on air? The Pitt, Ted Lasso, Shrinking and maybe Your Friends & Neighbors. 

Ben: I’m with everyone else – trying to choose just one TV show would be extremely difficult. The West Wing is regularly quoted in our household, The Office was long a comfort show for me, but there are so many shows that I’ve loved. 
ISH95: My colleagues are not wrong that this is nearly an impossible question to answer. However, nothing is actually impossible if you actually set your mind to it, so I will say Doctor Who, even though sometimes it seems as though the show and those behind it do in fact hate its viewers.