Michigan State and Purdue enter Thursday’s game in West Lafayette, IN (8 PM – Peacock) with identical 22-5 records. The Spartans and Boilermakers are also even in the Big Ten standings at 12-4 and in a three-way tie with Nebraska for third place in the conference. Nebraska hosts Maryland tonight. Illinois sits a game ahead in the win column at 13-4 prior to hosting first-place Michigan on Friday. So, the standings will be altered a bit before the weekend and MSU has a chance to turn things in their
favor as they work toward a top-four conference finish and double-bye in the Big Ten tournament.
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Let’s take a look at what the Spartans will be up against as they get set to face Purdue in Mackey Arena.
Purdue Overview
Purdue raced out to a perfect 8-0 start, which included wins over #25 Alabama and #13 Texas Tech, before being humbled a bit in an early December 81-58 home loss to #6 Iowa State. The Boilers responded with nine more wins a row before hitting a bit of a late January skid. Purdue dropped close games at UCLA (69-67), at home to Illinois (88-82, where the Illini got 46 points from Keaton Wagler), and at Indiana (72-67).
So far in February, Purdue is 5-1 with the only loss being a 91-80 decision to first-place Michigan in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers got back on track following the loss to the Wolverines with a 29 point drubbing of Indiana.
Perhaps the good news for Michigan State is that Purdue has proven to be somewhat vulnerable at home this year, but only against some of the best teams in the country (Iowa State, Illinois, Michigan). If the Spartans are going to come out of Mackey with a win, they will probably re-establish themselves as a top-10 team in the process.
The bad news is that Mackey Arena has been MSU’s kryptonite. A Google search indicates that Tom Izzo is only 8-16 in games played at Mackey, including 6-15 since the turn of the century, and the Spartans have lost seven in a row in West Lafayette. We have to go all the way back to 2014 for the Spartans’ last win at Purdue. Maybe the Spartans are due.
Purdue Rotation
The Boilers have some quality depth and regularly rotate nine players. The starting five boasts four seniors and only one transfer:
- #4 6-9 SR F – Trey Kaufman-Renn. 13.3 pts on 56.5% shooting & 9 rebs per game in 27.8 minutes.
- #45 6-11 SR C – Oscar Cluff. 10.1 pts on 72.1% shooting & 7.3 rebs per game in 23.2 minutes. Washington State & South Dakota State transfer; first year at Purdue.
- #0 6-3 SO G – C.J. Cox. 7.9 ppg on 43.4% shooting (35.1% 3P) in 23.9 minutes.
- #3 6-0 SR G – Braden Smith. 14.9 pts on 47.5% shooting (41.2% 3P) & 8.7 assists in 33.7 minutes.
- #2 6-5 SR G – Fletcher Loyer. 13.6 pts on 42.9% shooting (40.2% 3p) in 28.3 minutes.
Kaufman-Renn, Smith, and Loyer are in their fourth season together. The big man Cluff has proved to be a valuable transfer addition and Cox has increased his role from his freshman season. This group provides Purdue with a threat to score from anywhere on the floor. Kaufman-Renn and Cluff are reliable interior bucket-getters while Cox, but especially Smith and Loyer, are deadly three point shooters.
Four players regularly help Purdue off the bench. This is a younger group that includes three more proficient shooters and Jacobsen with some formidable interior size:
- #12 7-4 SO C – Daniel Jacobsen. 6.9 pts on 64.5% shooting and 3.8 rebounds in 15.4 minutes.
- #17 6-4 FR G – Omer Mayer. 6.1 pts on 43.2% shooting (38.3% 3P) in 14.9 minutes.
- #14 6-6 FR G – Jack Benter. 4.8 pts on 48.4% shooting (46% 3P) in 14.6 minutes.
- #24 6-3 SO G – Gicarri Harris. 5.2 pts on 39.8% shooting (33.8% 3P) in 16.9 minutes
Purdue Coaching
For this year at least Matt Painter has gone against the current trend and built his team through the high school recruiting ranks while adding just one experienced impact transfer.
Painter is also all Boilermaker. He played at Purdue, was an assistant in West Lafayette under Gene Keady, and is now in his 21st year leading Purdue.
Painter has guided the Boilermakers to five regular season Big Ten championships and two tournament championships. Purdue has gone to the NCAA tournament 16 times, advanced to the Sweet 16 eight times, the Elite 8 twice, and made it all the way to the 2024 championship game before falling to Connecticut.
Painter has averaged nearly 24 wins per season and has been named Big Ten Coach of the Year five times – second only to his mentor, Keady.
Scouting Purdue
The Spartans and Boilermakers are fairly similar when looking at some of the common statistics. In conference games only (through Sunday, February 22):
The Spartans’ advantages here are on the boards and at the free throw line. They are also a bit better defensively but will have to defend the three point line against Purdue, where they have struggled at times this season against good teams.
More similarities are revealed when looking at some of the more advanced metrics. As of February 22, Purdue was #7 in the KenPom overall rankings while MSU was #9. Purdue’s adjusted tempo is 64.6 while MSU is just slightly less slow at 65.5.
Looking at the evanmiya.com team ratings, Michigan State (4th in the B1G, 11th overall) is right behind Purdue (3rd/7th) in team relative ranking. Miya explains that a team’s total relative rating is the sum of its offensive and defensive rates. O-Rate reflects a team’s expected offensive efficiency. This number can be interpreted as the points per 100 possessions better than average expected when playing against an average D1 team. D-Rate reflects a team’s expected defensive efficiency. This number can be interpreted as the defensive points per 100 possessions better than average expected when playing against an average D1 team. However, each team’s O-Rate and D-Rate are actually based on how its offense and defense would perform against other similarly ranked teams. A higher rating is better in both cases.
Here is how MSU and Purdue compare to each other and all of the Big Ten team’s using Miya’s metrics (again, as of Sunday evening, February 22 – screenshot taken from evanmiya.com):
However, this game really presents as a strength vs. strength matchup with MSU’s 7th-ranked defensive efficiency (91.2) facing a stiff test against Purdue’s second-ranked offensive efficiency (131.4).
Keys to the Game for MSU
Defense hopefully travels and Michigan State will have to bring every bit of their best effort to West Lafayette. This can’t be a repeat of Minnesota or Wisconsin where MSU gives up a ton of threes as if they’re pennies being tossed in a wishing well.
The point guard battle between Jeremy Fears and Braden Smith will probably garner most of the pre-game headlines for this one, and that will be a fascinating battle, but Purdue’s other guard – Fletcher Loyer – may be an even bigger key. The Spartan tasked with defending Loyer won’t be able to leave him to help. If MSU loses track of Loyer, it could be a recipe for disaster if he’s drilling wide open threes.
If the Spartans can guard the three point line while still holding up inside, this seems to have the makings of a slower-paced game where every possession is valuable. This could be to Purdue’s advantage though. The Boilermakers, as evidenced by their assist to turnover ratio, take excellent care of the ball while turnovers have been a problem for MSU at times in February.
In short, Michigan State will need their best defensive effort on the road against a top team since a narrow 58-56 loss to Nebraska way back on January 2. They’re also going to need a significantly better offensive output than that game in Lincoln and that starts with taking care of the ball.
It may also be dependent on the Spartan bigs being better than Purdue’s. If Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, and Cam Ward can be a force on the offensive boards and convert contested interior shots, it could swing the game in MSU’s favor. A timely three from Jesse McCulloch wouldn’t hurt either.
In short, if this doesn’t go well for Michigan State, we’re looking at a repeat of the Wisconsin game. Or worse. However, if the Spartans can hold their own on the perimeter, take care of the ball, win the interior battle, and make enough shots, then we could be looking at an instant classic where the Spartans get a rare win in Mackey and move closer to the 3-seed line for the NCAA tournament.
What do you think TOC? Have we hit on the keys to the game? Or what have I missed? How do you see this one going – will the Spartans get their first win at Purdue in over a decade?
