We are just under a week away from the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and rumors persist about the Cowboys trying to trade up in the draft. The latest rumblings come from NFL insider Jordan Schultz, who specifically said the team is looking at a player the Giants are also hoping to draft.
As for who that player is, it’s anyone’s guess. The Giants’ biggest needs – offensive line, interior defensive line, and wide receiver – are practically the opposite of the Cowboys right now. Perhaps it’s Caleb Downs or Sonny Styles, two versatile Buckeyes that could fit into any defense.
Regardless of who the player is, though, one fact remains: the Cowboys should not trade up.
The science of draft value typically supports the idea that trading up in the draft, especially early on, is not a good idea. The miss rate on first-round picks is fairly high, for starters, and the higher you go in the first round the greater the miss rate. There’s some chicken-and-egg nuances here, of course: bad teams generally pick higher, and bad teams make it harder for good players to play good.
That said, it’s hard to ignore a fairly large mountain of evidence that suggests teams get it wrong in the first round just as much, if not more, than they get it right. For example, of the past 20 players to win Rookie of the Year honors (between offense and defense), seven of them were drafted outside of the top 10; four of them weren’t even first-round picks.
Just because you draft a player right at the top of the first round, there’s no guarantee they’re going to work out for you.
Not only is there data to suggest teams shouldn’t trade up, there is actually more data to suggest teams should trade down instead. Statistically speaking, acquiring more picks increases your odds of drafting good players. To borrow from the sport of hockey, it’s about shots on goal.
That’s not to mention that every draft picks turns into a young player who comes on a cost-controlled contract for a minimum of four years. The more picks you have, the more players you can get on your team for dirt cheap. And if you happen to have a knack for drafting well – as the Cowboys do – it can be the secret sauce to staying competitive even while paying your best players top dollar.
One of the best examples of this approach is, coincidentally, the Cowboys. Jerry Jones shocked everyone when he traded Herschel Walker to the Vikings, and was lambasted in the media for it. Everyone was forced to recant after when Dallas turned that bevvy of draft picks they got in return into Pro Bowlers up and down their roster, winning three Super Bowls in the process.
Jones cited that exact deal when he made the equally controversial move to ship off Micah Parsons nearly a year ago. That trade is the reason why the Cowboys even have the cache to trade up now, holding picks 12 and 20. As they reportedly weigh their options to move up, Dallas is effectively choosing between two shots at landing an impact player (with the potential to actually land two impact players) or one shot at landing exactly one impact player.
If the Cowboys do, in fact, trade up in the first round, it has to be for a player they are absolutely convinced will be a star – and they have to be right. Given the level of uncertainty around how this draft will play out past the first pick, it’s not hard to argue that this class lacks a ton of surefire hits. In fact, the potential to miss on a pick is arguably higher than it’s been the last few years.
What all of this comes down to is one simple truth: the Cowboys cannot, under any circumstances, trade up in this draft.
