When the Orioles traded for Trevor Rogers at the trade deadline in 2024, I wasn’t especially impressed. He had a high ERA and an injury history. When he pitched to a 7.11 ERA in his first four starts, then made his final five starts down in Triple-A, I was less impressed. 2024 Stacey would not believe that 2026 Stacey is advocating for the Orioles to sign Trevor Rogers to a hefty free agent contract, and yet here we are.
Starting in 2025, Rogers turned things around in a big way. He missed the start
of the season with a knee injury, then underwent a lengthy minor-league rehab. During that rehab, his numbers were terrible. But he was obviously working on things because after making his season debut with the Orioles on May 24th, he was incredible and never looked back.
You know the rest of that season. A 1.81 ERA in 18 starts. Awarded Most Valuable Oriole despite missing the first two months. People were calling to extend him then, but for me, at least, it felt early. I remembered 2024. I knew his shaky numbers with the Marlins before he arrived. I guess I was wrong.
He was the 2026 Opening Day pitcher and while that game was good, he got off to a rocky start. No one expected him to repeat his 1.81 ERA, but we sure didn’t expect that number to be 6.84 at the end of May. It was disappointing, but in retrospect, it seemed that his late April IL stint related to the flu really took him out.
It seemed to take him quite a while to fully recover. But once he did, he was back to the guy we wanted to see at the top of the Orioles’ rotation.
From June 4th through the end of the season, Rogers posted a 2.90 ERA over 20 starts. He struck out 119 in 121 innings. He walked 21. His fastball velocity had dipped earlier in the year and was back up to about 93 mph. He looked a lot like the pitcher the Orioles saw in 2025. The fans had quieted down about extending him when his ERA was over six, but they were back at it over the final two-thirds of the season. And rightly so.
When asked about his future at various times by the press, Rogers expressed his fondness for Baltimore but also stated that he doesn’t negotiate during the season. And why would he? He is a 28-year-old left-handed starting pitcher coming off two impressive seasons. He is arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the FA market this year (there is no arguing the first: Tarik Skubal).
This is Rogers’s time to lock down his big contract. First, he has to turn down the $23.15 million qualifying offer from the Orioles. He will do that. Then it’s on for him.
I don’t begrudge Rogers going after that big contract. But I think the Orioles are in a place to be the ones who re-sign him. We know that Mike Elias has not yet signed a free-agent pitcher to a big contract. There was a time when I believed he wouldn’t do that. But I don’t believe it now. He signed Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz to contract extensions. And he, of course, made the incredible signing of Pete Alonso last year. Alonso isn’t a pitcher, but it proves that Elias is willing to go big.
The Orioles need to sign or trade for a top pitcher for 2027. Between Bradish, Baz, and Brandon Young they have a solid mid-to-back of the rotation, at worst. Bradish has number one potential but struggled, and he will be coming off an injury after having a hernia repair in October. Baz was unreliable in 2026. And Young, who went beyond expectations last year, has to prove he can repeat his success.
If the Orioles don’t sign Rogers or similar, those three will be the top of the rotation. That leaves Cade Povich and Trey Gibson to round things out. And that can’t be the way that it goes for the Orioles. Not if they want any hope of competing.
Trevor Rogers is a known quantity. He is one of the top starting pitchers on the FA market. He is going to get his payday. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Rogers will get a five-year contract worth $115 million. Five years would take Rogers through his 33rd birthday. So you’re not looking at giving a guy a contract that will take him through until he’s old. I know it’s not my money, but I’d take that deal on Rogers without hesitation.
The Orioles have a lot of work to do if they want to contend in 2027. Upgrading the rotation is a requirement, and they can do by reuniting with the pitcher who has been so good for them the last two seasons.
