The 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament field will be announced at 7 PM Sunday evening on ESPN. The Minnesota Golden Gophers will not need to worry about whether or not they will hear their team named as one of the 68 teams in the field. Minnesota is a lock for the tournament for the first time since 2018. But, the bigger question for the Gophers as a team and all their fans is whether or not the Gophers will be a #4 seed, or a #5 seed. And there is a LOT riding on that decision. If the Gophers are
one of the top 16 teams in the NCAA field, then they would get to host the first and second rounds of the tournament at Williams Arena. As a #4 seed the Gophers would open against a #13 seed, and then in the second round if they would advance they would host a game against the winner of the #5 seed and the #12 seed. Being home for those two games is a huge advantage. The difference between being #16 and #17 in the field is such a thin line, but it comes with a monumental advantage to the team ranked #16. With the major conference tournaments completed as of last weekend, there should not be too much additional movement if any in the Top 16, so what these projections are now should be their final ones headed into Selection Sunday. So, where will Minnesota fall when the full brackets are announced on Sunday evening? Lets take a look at the most recent bracketology’s from several national media sources and see that they are thinking.
The Brackets:
ESPN: Gophers Seed #4
Other #4 Seeds: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Maryland
Projected Matchups: #4 Minnesota vs #13 UC Irvine; #5 North Carolina vs #12 Gonzaga
ESPN has had the Gophers as a #4 seed since the NCAA’s Top 16 reveal just over two weeks ago. Along with the Gophers they keep Maryland on the #4 line as well after their early exit at the Big Ten Tournament. Oklahoma falls to a #4 and Ohio State moves up to a #3 seed in this projection. The biggest jumper is West Virginia to the #4 line after the Mountaineers won the Big 12 Tournament which sent Michigan State down to the #5 line. They also have both North Carolina and Kentucky as #5 seeds in this projection, which as we will see, others have them ranked higher. If you project out the full 1-64 rankings of the field using the projected #1 seeds as a guide, it appears ESPN has the Gophers as the #13 overall team in the 4th #1 seed, South Carolina’s bracket.
CBS Sports: Gophers Seed #4
Other #4 Seeds: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Maryland
Projected Matchups: #4 Minnesota vs #13 Western Illinois; #5 Notre Dame vs #12 McNeese
CBS also has the Gophers as a #4 seed along with the other three teams in the ESPN bracket. They match up the Gophers with a #5 seed in Notre Dame this time instead of North Carolina. So in general the CBS and ESPN people agree. If you project out the full 1-64 rankings of the field using the projected #1 seeds as a guide, it appears ESPN has the Gophers as the #14 overall team in the 3rd #1 seed, Texas’ bracket.
Her Hoop Stats: Gophers Seed #4
Other #4 Seeds: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Maryland
Projected Matchups: #4 Minnesota vs #13 Colorado State; #5 Mississippi vs #12 Montana State
Another newly updated bracket, and another one where the Gophers remain at #4 and so do the other three projected #4 seeds. This is the third different bracket that has a different proposed #13 seed first round opponent and #5 seeded opponent in the second round for the Gophers, this time in Colorado State and Mississippi. This bracket has the Lady Rebels taking the last #5 seed instead of Notre Dame. If you project out the full 1-64 rankings of the field using the projected #1 seeds as a guide, it appears HHS has the Gophers as the #13 overall team in the 4th #1 seed, South Carolina’s bracket.
USA Today: Gophers Seed #5
Listed #4 Seeds: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina
Other #5 Seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Mississippi
Projected Matchups: #4 Oklahoma vs #13 McNeese; #5 Minnesota vs #12 Nebraska/Arizona State
USA Today is the first bracket to have the Gophers not in the #4 seed line, but in the #5 seed line. They would appear to have Oklahoma as the final #4 seed in this scenario and Minnesota as the highest ranked #5 seed. That very thin line situation we discussed in the open to this article. So far this is the bracket that gives North Carolina the biggest jump from the #5 line in all three previous all the way to the top #4 seed in this bracket. Wonder is someone just did the math wrong there. If you project out the full 1-64 rankings of the field using the projected #1 seeds as a guide, it appears USA Today has the Gophers as the #17 overall team in the 1st #1 seed, UCONN’s bracket.
The IX Sports: Gophers Seed #5
Listed #4 Seeds: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina
Other #5 Seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Mississippi
Projected Matchups: #4 West Virginia vs #13 Vermont; #5 Minnesota vs #12 James Madison
This one sees a very similar layout to the USA Today bracket with the exception that they swap West Virginia in for Oklahoma as the #4 seed in the Minnesota region. In this scenario they place the Mountaineers in line to meet the third #1 seed Texas in the opening round this ranking WVU #14, and the Gophers #19 in the field.
College Sports Madness: Gophers Seed #5
Listed #4 Seeds: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Mississippi, North Carolina
Other #5 Seeds: Michigan State, Maryland, Notre Dame
Projected Matchups: #4 Oklahoma vs #13 Green Bay; #5 Minnesota vs #12 South Dakota State
This bracket apparently discounts the Big Ten as it as BOTH Maryland and Michigan State on the #5 line with the Gophers and not a single Big Ten team as a #4, and wants to set up a true Upper Midwest regional with Minnesota, South Dakota State and Green Bay all headed to Norman. It is definitely the most different from any of the other five. But like the USA Today one it would appear to have Oklahoma as the #16 overall seed and Minnesota at #17.
The Comparison:
If you look at the sum of all six brackets above there are six different teams that are listed as potential #4 seeds, and an additional three teams who are listed as #5 seeds in a majority of the brackets. Below is a list of all those teams, their NET ranking, and their record in Quad 1 games that the NCAA should be looking at to compare and rank the group:
The Gophers are the highest ranked team of the group in the NET rankings but are bit lower than some of the schools when it comes to their Quad 1 winning percentage. Looking at these numbers it appears Oklahoma should be a lock for a #4 seed, not surprising as they were listed as a #3 as late as last week. Maryland should still have a lock on a #4 seed as well. When looking at the rest of the group, it would appear it should be a three horse race between Minnesota, West Virginia and North Carolina for the last two spots. Any of the three can have an argument, but I think Minnesota and West Virginia get the last two #4 seeds and Williams Arena will be rocking with NCAA Tournament basketball for the first time since 2005.
The full 68-team NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament field will be announced at 7 PM Sunday Night on ESPN. We will have a full breakdown of where the Gophers fit in the bracket later that night.
