In preparation for tonight’s Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs, we sat down with JR Wilco at our sister site Pounding the Rock to discuss what we’re looking out for from our respective opponents. If you want to engage in some light-hearted and kind (stressing this, don’t be obnoxious like Denver Nuggets fans were/are), you can do so at their site here.
J.R. Wilco
I think you’d agree that to say that you were down on Minnesota’s chances entering Game 6 would be a pretty serious understatement. Your
piece on Denver’s win over the Wolves in Game 5 was about as serious an indictment of your team’s performance as the government’s charges against Harish Chidambaran.
And yet you guys made Nikola Jokić look ordinary and Jamal Murray look putrid. Minny too the “next man up” mantra to another level. See, that cliche is supposed to mean that when a guy goes down, his replacement is ready to play in his place. It’s not supposed to mean that the replacement suddenly auditions to be a starter on the all star team! I went from being ecstatic that the Spurs wouldn’t play Denver to being afraid that they’ve be hard pressed to take down a team that’s currently under attack from the injury bug.
So tell me, a) how did you guys take down Denver while so shorthanded, b) what should I be most concerned about in Game 1, and what are you most afraid of, besides Wemby?
Thilo
Beating Denver in Game 6 came down to a few factors: paint touches, paint deterrence, and sheer, unadulterated hatred.
Before Ayo Dosumnu went down with a calf injury, his shot diet in his 43 point masterclass in Game 4 was functionally all layups outside of his 5/5 three point shooting. The rest of the Wolves team existed in a similarly slash-friendly environment.
There was, and this is no exaggeration, no rim protection whatsoever on the Nuggets roster to the point that Spencer Jones was the primary paint presence for Games 3-6. This enabled a TJ Shannon sighting (his only above-average skill at the NBA level is finding his way to the rim) and allowed the Timberwolves, one of the league’s most inconsistent offensive teams, to score over 110 in all but one game.
On the other side of things, Denver could not find a way to score at their normal level when run off the three point line. As much as we can point at Jamal Murray (and laugh), Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr turning back into pumpkins hurt just as much.
Funnily enough, Jaden McDaniels’ best defensive role is not as a perimeter stopper. While he’s more than capable there, he is arguably better suited as a help side defender (we’ll get to that later). To that point, I doubt we see a remotely similar strategy for San Antonio as we saw against Denver.
I’d say that role change for McDaniels is the biggest thing to be worried about. Outside of the obvious “we get to match your top-five player with our returning top-seven guy”, that’s the thing I hope would change.
A defensive matchup of Ayo on Fox, TJ on Vassell, and Gobert on Wemby, with Jaden roaming off of whoever of Castle or Champagnie is less intimidating could be incredibly fun, incredibly destructive, and disastrously low scoring.
As far as what’s the scariest in facing the Spurs, you guys just simply have more things you can count on than we do. While we have flexibility and house money, you have a winning formula that has been shaped by your whole season and has little to no restructuring needed.
For more concrete answers, the Wolves are already down a ton of initiators, and the defensive pressure the Spurs can put on guys who are already more used to and more prepared for facing third and fourth defensive options could instantly collapse the whole cobbled together formula the Wolves built so quickly.
That formula included a Game 6 lineup that was supersized, with Jaden McDaniels at the two, Naz Reid at the three, and both Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert filling out the space alongside TJ Shannon’s “go straight through them” play at point. The Spurs size comes primarily in the form of Wemby, how do the rest of the Spurs deal with that lineup and the size it brings?
J.R.
You say unadulterated hatred. I hear properly channeled distaste, because in my experience playing angry might work in spurts, but will wear you out over a full 48 minutes. Shoot, even half a basketball game would probably be too much. That said, the way your crew was able to stick around with a dwindling roster until the clock struck midnight on Denver was one of the more impressive things I’ve seen in the NBA this year. Watching those Nuggets turning into pumpkins and mice was as enjoyable as it was unexpected.
You say that McDaniels’ defense isn’t best suited for being a perimeter stopper, but I’m going to expect Fox and Castle and Harper to put enough pressure on the Wolves that he’s going to need to spend time out there on the regular, regardless of how much he would prefer to play weak side help.
As for the lineup you asked about, my primary concern with this series is Randle and Reid wrecking San Antonio from deep when they have the ball, and causing Wemby all kinds of problems as they defend. Honestly, besides Aaron Gordon, Julius probably played the best defense I saw on Victor all season. As for how San Antonio will deal with all that size, that’s the $64,000 question, and I’m so glad it’s being asked.
For so much of the season, Mitch Johnson has allowed the Spurs to play pretty ordinary sets without much imagination or complexity. Or to be more blunt, San Antonio’s offense has often been very straightforward and bordering on elementary. In defense of this strategy, it’s been effective. Why push the team to do more when a basic offense is enough to win? Well, the answer is: the playoffs. They’re here now and Minnesota’s defense and size might be exactly what forces the Spurs to pull out all the stops.
Now I’m not expecting them to start whizzing the ball around the court like the 2014 Spurs, but I wouldn’t complain if they did. Lacking that, I think San Antonio’s offense is at its best when Wemby is off the ball and the team takes advantage of the gravity his vertical threat creates. When teams are terrified of him getting downhill without the ball, or receiving passes anywhere close to the paint without a man bodying him, it opens up space for guys to shoot open threes and gash defenses with aggressive drives and timely cuts. That’s when defenses react to the pressure from the rest of the team such that Wemby gets single-teamed or even forgotten – which is obviously a death sentence.
Which brings me back to Wemby, and this time I won’t ask you to not use him as an answer to your question. With so much of your success against Denver being to attack the rim, and with Wemby being elite at protecting the paint and guarding multiple guys simultaneously, what do you see as the best chance that Minny has to produce points and make San Antonio’s defense uncomfortable?
Thilo
I could take this answer in so many different directions. The answer I want to give, or rather the thing that I think people can’t read about elsewhere, is Rudy Gobert’s impact as a passer on the short roll.
We often think of scoring in the paint as the only way to maximize drives. Either you lay it up or you don’t. Either you dunk it or you’re blocked, and so on.
Gobert has never been one to lay it up confidently, or even dunk it safely. Describing his offensive game as invisible was doing him a kindness for many, many years. When a player’s primary offensive impact is screen assists, you need to be a real basketball degenerate to give him some credit for that side of the ball.
However, a compliment that was once hard to give has now found itself to a more obvious, highlight-worthy place.
Taking a page from his mortal enemy, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert has evolved not as a play finisher but as a play extender. There was a single play in Game 6 that led to a TJ Shannon three pointer in the right corner that comes to mind.
Pointing out just one play implies that this was a special occurrence, but this happened throughout the series. The worry with Wemby is always as much about rim deterrence as it is actual block numbers. A past version of Gobert would’ve been more willing to flail wildly at the rim in an attempt to draw a foul or do anything once the original plan of “finish the pick and roll” was flushed.
Today’s version of Gobert can rethink and create a new plan.
What does this mean on a larger scale? Improvisation is alive and well in Minnesota. Each player that should be getting rotation minutes for the Wolves has some way to deal with the court ending eight or so feet further from the rim than they are used to.
Jaden McDaniels’ mid range was fantastic in Game 6. TJ Shannon is a blur in transition. Julius Randle has his elbow touches. The list goes on. The playoffs are often about good players losing their favorite options and having to make due with their third or fourth choice.
This is no different.
The “motion offense” has been a bit of a running joke in Wolves circles ever since Chris Finch arrived in Minnesota. As much as higher management has approached roster building, Finch individually has valued one skill above all else: consistency.
Whoever is guarded by Wemby will be responsible for pulling him from the rim. Even moreso, I assume that whoever the Wolves will want to attack on switches will be the target for four of five players on the court. For the Suns in 2024, that player was Devin Booker. Last series, it was Jamal Murray. Against the Spurs? My guess would be DeAaron Fox.
There are so many more questions I’d have, but I’m sure Mitch Johnson reads this, and I don’t want to give away too many answers! We will see how this game turns out!
