Nine days ago, the Toronto Blue Jays went to bed with a five-game division lead with just 11 games to go. Their magic number to clinching the AL East and likely the No. 1 seed was just six. Never would
anyone have thought, that in the days since, the Yankees would have gone 6-1 and the Blue Jays would go 1-6 to send us into the final Thursday of the season in a dead heat for the East.
Now, the Yankees don’t control their destiny just yet. Because of the tiebreaker, the Jays hold a de facto half-game lead. For the Yankees to pull off the heist of the century (or, I guess, the second-biggest heist after Cleveland) and skip the Wild Card Series, they’ll need to win one more game against Toronto in the last four days of the season. A combination of five Yankees wins or Blue Jays losses will do the trick. If Toronto does win tonight, though, the Yankees can clinch home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series with a win.
Looking to finish off a sweep of his former team, Carlos Rodón takes the mound for the final time in the regular season. It’s been a stellar season for the southpaw, as he enters play at 17-9 with a 3.04 ERA (134 ERA+) and 3.76 FIP in 32 starts over 189.1 innings, a new career high. While his breakout 2021 with the Southsiders is his best campaign in terms of run prevention, he’ll finish 2025 with 60 more innings pitched and is two strikeouts away from his second career 200 strikeout campaign.
After a shaky stretch in June and early July, Rodón has allowed two or fewer runs with at least five innings pitched in nine consecutive starts. Against the White Sox on August 29, he allowed just one run in 6+ innings. If he picks up his 18th win tonight, he and Fried will be the first pair of teammates to win 18+ games in MLB since Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in 2019.
Taking the bump for the White Sox, looking to play spoiler, is Davis Martin, who has been consistent for the ChiSox all season, pitching to a 4.03 ERA (104 ERA+) and 4.72 FIP in 138.1 innings. Martin is not only a rock in their rotation, but has also provided needed length for a dreadful bullpen. In 23 of his 25 outings this season, he’s completed five innings. One of the two he didn’t? August 28 against the Yankees, when he was chased after a season-low 3.2 innings, after Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. mashed early homers off of him.
Martin’s profile is one that the Yankees should be able to get a hold of. After some recent strikeout struggles, it’ll be nice to have a guy with one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. He’s pretty good at getting groundballs, but the other peripherals are graded mediocre to bad. His six-pitch mix features a very effective changeup and both a cutter and curveball that get whiffs, but his sinker and slider get crushed, while his four-seamer is just okay as his main pitch.
It’s a very familiar Yankees lineup tonight, although it’s the first time it’s been deployed. Grisham leads off, followed by Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, and Chisholm. They switch up the bottom three, with Volpe batting seventh, Wells eighth, and McMahon ninth.
Chase Meidroth and Curtis Mead start it off once again for the ChiSox, Kyle Teel re-enters the lineup batting sixth, and we see Derek Hill for the first time this series, batting ninth. The dangerous Colson Montgomery slides back to third in the order.
Note that the weather could play a factor in tonight’s game. I’d be shocked if the game wasn’t played tonight, considering the only alternative would be a potentially disastrous makeup game on Monday, but the forecast is bleak. All the more important to get out to an early lead.
How to Watch:
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. EDT
TV broadcast: YES Network (NYY) | CHSN (CHW)
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | ESPN Chicago WMVP 1000 AM (CHW)
Online stream: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market only)
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