As the top AFC Wild Card team, the Houston Texans must go on the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers after they won the AFC North on Sunday Night Football. After that? Their path to the Super Bowl is completely up in the air.
This marks Houston’s first-ever playoff appearance as a Wild Card team; all eight of their previous postseason trips came as AFC South champions. That distinction instead belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have won the division for just the third time in franchise history.
With that settled, the AFC playoff picture has fully taken shape. Few could have predicted this order, but here’s how the AFC playoffs stack up:
- Denver Broncos (14-3)
- New England Patriots (14-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
- Houston Texans (12-5)
- Buffalo Bills (12-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Denver gets a bye over New England based on best win percentage in common games. New England will host the Chargers, losers of two straight. Jacksonville’s win over Tennessee earned them the right to play the Bills in a marquee matchup where they are the underdog.
Then there are the Texans, who will head on the road to face a team they finished two wins ahead of in the standings. Despite that, Houston opened as a three-point favorite.
If the Texans can steal a win in Pittsburgh, their next matchup (and where it’s played) will hinge entirely on the other Wild Card results. And while it’s usually bad luck to overlook the Steelers, that’s exactly what we’re going to do here, briefly.
Each potential Divisional Round opponent presents a different set of challenges.
If division winners New England and Jacksonville both advance, Houston would be forced to travel to Denver and play every remaining game on the road. The Texans already suffered a last-second loss to the Broncos this season and do not match up well against Denver’s pass rush. That said, the Broncos’ offense averages just 23 points per game, 14th in the league.
Jacksonville may be the hottest and most complete team in the AFC. While TIAA Bank Field doesn’t carry the same intimidation factor as Mile High or Gillette, the Jaguars are arguably the opponent Houston would most want to avoid early in the postseason.
Then there’s New England: a dominant run game, an efficient offense, and a top-10 defense. The Patriots are built for a playoff run and enter the postseason with considerable momentum. However, if the Chargers can pull off the upset, Houston would face the winner of the Jacksonville–Buffalo matchup and potentially host a Divisional Round game if Buffalo advances.
While the other division winners pose significant challenges, they remain largely unproven in the postseason. That’s where Buffalo and Los Angeles stand apart. Both teams are led by quarterbacks with playoff experience and a track record of winning in January. Still, Houston would gladly welcome a second-round home matchup against either Wild Card opponent, having defeated both during the regular season.
