This Sunday, the Houston Texans end their regular season with a tilt against the Indianapolis Colts. For a good bit of the season, this game seemed like it would hold the key to the Texans’ season. However, by virtue of Houston’s victory in LA last week, the Texans are in the playoffs and the Colts look to avoid a losing season after starting the year 8-2. While the Texans have a playoff spot locked up, they do not know who, or even where they will play. Depending on the actions on Sunday, they could
play anywhere from Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, New England, Denver or maybe…Houston. So much is still up in the air for the Texans.
For one, the AFC South is still unsettled. Houston is looking to be the 1st team to win the AFC South three straight times since the Peyton Manning Colts of the 2000s. Historically, Houston wins back-to-back titles, but then craters and misses the playoffs. Houston has always entered the playoffs as a division champion, with the subsequent home game that tends to always be that Saturday afternoon to open the NFL playoffs. Their current 8-game win streak has the Texans back in the AFC South discussion.
However, Houston does not control its own destiny as far as the division goes. They sit one game back of Jacksonville, who has also locked up a playoff berth. If the Jags take care of business against the Titans in Nashville this Sunday, they lock up the AFC South and will be no worse than the 3 seed. Potentially, the Jags could end up as the 1 seed if the Broncos and Patriots both lose Sunday. Even if the Jags tie the Titans, the AFC South is theirs. Yet, if Jacksonville loses and Houston wins, Houston gets the division crown, the 3-seed and at least one home playoff game (probably again on Saturday afternoon).
Thus, you have an interesting predicament. The Texans have already indicated that they will play their starters this Sunday, even if the chances for winning the AFC South are only 20% (depending on which source you read). Yes, Jacksonville has derped a division crown before in Nashville (remember 2023). Of course, that Jacksonville team was in the midst of an all-time gag job, while this variation of the Glitter Kitties might be the strongest Jacksonville squad since their 1999 team. Still, by mere percentages, Houston doesn’t figure to end up any better than the 5th seed, unless the Titans play out of their minds and Jacksonville reverts to their classic form.
Not that any team wants to deliberately lose a game, but Houston might have some considerations for resting starters for the playoff run. In their last game against the Chargers, Lassiter, Al-Shaair and Stingley all had to miss time in the game due to injury concerns. Al-Shaair missed the Raiders game due to injury and Lassiter has fought various leg ailments in the latter part of the season. Any significant injury, especially to those players will likely mean they are out for the playoffs, which is not good news for team that will lean very, very heavily on its defense. Houston is already way down in the depth chart for its interior defensive linemen, and further attrition will not bode well for this squad.
Then again, Houston won’t want to pass up the chance for a home game. Under Ryans, the Texans are 2-0 in home playoff games, winning by an average of 24 points. For their two road games, Houston has lost both by an average of 16 points. If Houston could win the AFC South, they would be the 3 seed, which, depending on what happens in other playoffs games, could open the door for to host multiple home dates. Resting starters would reduce the chances for Houston to get that division crown, even if they are playing a weakened Colts team playing out the string.
Another factor to consider is that this season, the AFC lacks that truly dominant team. The traditional AFC powers are either out of the playoff race (Chiefs), or are in a weakened state (Ravens, Bills). The contenders for the top seed in the AFC (Denver, New England, Jacksonville) are having strong regular seasons, but there are questions about how their regular season performance will translate into the post-season. This season, the best thing that a team could do is just get into the dance with as strong a roster as possible, letting the chips fall where they may. If Houston can bring as healthy and strong a defense as possible, combined with a QB that can get hot, they are in as good a position to win the conference as any. If they come into the playoffs weakened due to key injuries in the final game, those chances fall significantly.
Thus, the coaching staff for the Texans finds themselves in a difficult balance. There are legitimate reasons to go all out to achieve team goals and improving the playoff positioning. However, there are some significant risks. The most recent injury report shows several key starters out of practice and their status will be closely watched coming into the Sunday regular season finale. The Colts, by starting Riley Leonard, seem to indicate they are waving the white flag, but no game in the NFL is that easy.
Likely Houston will be aggressive in that if key players are able to go, they will play, regardless of how banged up they are. Yet, if there are any concerns in the game, it would not shock anyone to see a quick hook. Ideally, Houston can jump out to a huge lead early and then work in substitutes as the game progresses, netting Houston a win, keeping players sharp, but also avoiding the catastrophic injury. Then again, anything can happen on any given Sunday. Should be a fun game, but more than a few fans will hold their collective breaths watching key players perform without suffering any major injury.
