30.5. It’s a number Phoenix Suns fans became very familiar with throughout last season because it represented the team’s preseason over/under for wins. Sure, it was a difficult number to project. Phoenix had spent the summer reshaping its roster, trading away Kevin Durant and waiving Bradley Beal. The projection was rooted as much in uncertainty as it was in the perceived talent walking out the door.
The Suns didn’t merely clear that number. They obliterated it. Phoenix surpassed its preseason win
total by 15 games, earning its 31st victory on February 3 with more than two months still remaining in the regular season. I believe Degeneration X has a phrase that could be directed towards the sportsbooks.
And now the line has been set for the 2026–27 Suns.
After an offseason in which the team exchanged Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Amir Coffey, and Isaiah Livers for Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard, rookie Koa Peat, and Cam Spencer, the projected FanDuel win total sits at 38.5.
According to the sportsbooks, the Suns are expected to finish seven wins worse than they did a season ago. You can point to several reasons. Maybe there’s a belief that the Western Conference got stronger, although I don’t necessarily agree with that. Maybe there’s a perception that the Suns got worse, and I definitely don’t agree with that.
So 38.5 becomes the new number. The new benchmark. The latest expectation for Phoenix to exceed. Because the market is saying the Suns are a sub .500 team, something only the bottom six teams in the Western Conference accomplished last season. Maybe I’m naive. I simply don’t see it.
Of course, sportsbooks aren’t trying to predict the future. They’re trying to balance action, and perception plays a role in that. Phoenix still carries the baggage of recent disappointments, while other teams are generating offseason buzz through splashier moves. That’s fine. The Suns spent last season outperforming expectations instead of chasing them. If this roster stays healthy and continues to build on the identity it established a year ago, 38.5 feels less like a ceiling and more like another number waiting to be left in the rearview mirror.
