At the opening of Commissioner’s Cup play, I posited that the Minnesota Lynx could become the first-ever two-time Cup champions.
It’s not impossible for the 2024 Cup winners to still complete that feat. But, the 2022 champs made Minnesota’s task much more difficult.
The Las Vegas Aces, instead, are in pole position to represent the Western Conference in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game and become the first franchise to raise the trophy (and collect the cash) for a second time.
With a statement
win over the Lynx on Saturday night, the Aces advanced to an undefeated 5-0 in Cup games. They’ll now look to win their seventh-straight game and clinch their spot in the Cup final with a win over the Dallas Wings on Monday night (8 p.m. ET, USA Network).
The Wings had the opportunity to make the Western Conference Cup race more interesting until a Saturday night loss to the Portland Fire, suffered without Paige Bueckers, gave Dallas two Cup losses. Bueckers, who is dealing with an ankle sprain, remains questionable for Monday’s match.
Vegas’ previous trip to Dallas was their last loss, when a monster triple-double from Jessica Shepard, plus Azzi Fudd throwing flames in her first WNBA start, helped the Wings pull away for the win. As the Aces are a team always eager to conjure up extra motivation, that loss, on top of the Cup-based incentives, should have them arriving ready to dominate, unfazed by whether or not Bueckers is in the lineup.
Last time around, Dallas lit up Vegas, resulting in the Aces’ second-worst defensive performance of the season. That loss, however, wasn’t much of a defensive wake-up call. In fact, the Aces’ previous game, their crucial Cup win over the Lynx, was the worst defensive outing of the season.
So, maybe defense does NOT win the Cup?
If the offense is electric, the defense can be inconsistent.
Vegas now has the best offense in league, with a 113.4 offensive rating, scoring a league-high 92.1 points per game.
If maintained, that would be the best offensive rating in WNBA history, eclipsing the 113.0 mark established in 2023…by the Aces. That season, Vegas, then the defending Cup champs, returned to the Cup final, only to be defeated by the New York Liberty, their would-be opponent if they earn one more Cup win.
Considering they are the defending champs, driven by the best player, and best offensive player, in the league in A’ja Wilson, the Aces’ offensive power and proficiency isn’t shocking. But after an uneven 2025 regular season that featured some uninspiring stretches of offense, Vegas has demonstrated sharper offensive process, evidenced in their increase in assists. The Aces’ 23.3 assists per game is on pace to be the highest in franchise history, helping the team then shoot a franchise-best 48.8 percent on all field goals. The team’s current 3-point percentage of 37.9 percent would also be the all-time organization mark.
Mostly simply, basketball is about makes and misses, and the Aces are making. And so, they’re winning.
Certainly, one could question the sustainability of the Aces’ hot-shooting offense. Wilson and Chennedy Carter are both shooting better than 50 percent—almost 55 percent for A’ja and better than 52 percent for Chennedy—rom 3. Then, Chelsea Gray’s draining nearly 45 percent of her triples, highlighted by her WNBA record-tying nine 3 outburst against the Portland Fire.
Yet, Jewell Loyd, who, while no longer the full-fledged Gold Mamba, can shoot much better from deep. After shooting 38.2 percent from 3 last season, she is currently hitting just 27.3 percent of her 3s, and, adjusted for minutes, she’s the Aces’ highest-volume shooter.
Even with their excellence from behind the arc, the Aces also aren’t over-reliant on 3s. Only 28.6 percent of their points come from long range, which ranks ninth in the league. Instead, their dominance begins on the inside. Per game, they’re scoring an average of 42 points in the paint, which is the second-most in the league. They’re also maximizing opportunities, taking the third-most shots per game at 70.1. Their surplus of shot attempts is aided by their success at generating and then cashing in on second chances, as they lead the WNBA with 14.8 second-chance points per game.
As those numbers are indicative of A’ja’s strengths, all that seems pretty sustainable.
Although improved, Dallas doesn’t have enough defensive resistance to slow down Vegas for four quarters. To at least put on hold the Aces’ Cup clincher, the Wings will need to score with them. That’s possible, but if Paige is absent, that lift becomes heavier.
I’m expecting the Aces to romp to victory that returns them to the Commissioner’s Cup stage. What about you?
Is another Aces-vs.-Liberty Cup final fait accompli? Could the Wings, possibly without Paige, win again against the Aces and, presuming they take care of business against the Portland Fire (8 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass), revive the Lynx’s Cup hopes? Let us know in the comments.
