Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight sluggers Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita will go to war this weekend (Sat., Oct. 24, 2026) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for UFC 333.
Two fights into his career, Pico has lived up to his reputation as a do-or-die action fighter. He suffered one of the year’s nastiest knockouts in his debut versus Lerone Murphy, but his drubbing of fellow Bellator OG Patricio Pitbull was both an impressive rebound and display of potential. Ahead
of his 20th professional fight, the question remains: can Pico put it all together and become a true contender?
Keita may be replacing the injured Arnold Allen, but he’s no softball opponent. The former two-division Oktagon champion faltered in an uneventful debut to the crafty Nathaniel Wood, but his rebound knockout reminded fans why they were so excited about his signing in the first place.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Pico vs. Keita Betting Odds
- Aaron Pico victory: +100
- Aaron Pico via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Aaron Pico via submission: TBD
- Aaron Pico via decision: TBD
- Losene Keita victory: -125
- Losene Keita via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Losene Keita via submission: TBD
- Losene Keita via decision: TBD
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Pico Wins
Pico is a remarkably accomplished wrestler with a deep boxing background to boot. There’s a reason he was signing deals with Nike at the age of 18 prior to even his professional debut — he has the credentials of an all-time great fighter. In the cage, we’ve seen pieces of that greatness, but Pico has yet to fully put it all together in a consistent fashion.
His beatdown of Pitbull was a step in the right direction though.
To win this fight, Pico has to walk a tightrope that has troubled him his entire career. He has the boxing skill to engage with Keita on the feet, but standup has to remain a means to an end. His goal should be to set up the takedown and collect control time, because Keita is very dangerous in the standup. If Pico grows too confident or too excited on the feet, he’s in for another bad knockout loss.
Can Pico smartly engage and wrestle versus a high-level opponent? He’s not really a decision fighter, as just 15% of his bouts end on the scorecards regardless of victory or defeat. This is Pico’s great opportunity to prove that he can stick to the script and avoid a firefight, which is a necessary skill for any would-be champion.
How Keita Wins
Keita is a bona fide knockout artist. Belgium’s “Black Panther” is an outstanding athlete who imposes his physicality on opponents, stalking them around the Octagon and drawing out offense. When shots are coming his way, Keita has tremendous eyes for slipping and returning fire in devastating fashion.
In this matchup, Keita is faced with the kind of opponent he enjoys: one who engages. Pico has great long range weapons like his jab and round kicks, yet I’m not sure he’s mentally capable of playing keep away. He’s a pocket boxer, and that’s where Keita erases his opposition.
Keita’s goal then is to pressure the wrestler and convince him to follow his natural instincts. Pico wants to fight, and whatever safe strategy has been imparted upon him by his coaches can be forgotten quickly. If Keita really gets in his face and aggressively attacks any attempt to jab him away, Pico will try to wrestle or try to trade. So long as Keita has the takedown defense to deal with the former, the latter is suddenly inevitable.
Pico vs. Keita Prediction
Aaron Pico is a lifetime martial artist approaching his 10th year as a professional fighter. He’s been an incredible athlete since he was a teenager; physicality has never held him back. Yet, after 19 trips to the cage, the highlight of his entire career is the win over Patricio Pitbull, a smaller and older foe who still managed to tag him quite a few times in the first round.
For all the skill on display, that Pitbull win really didn’t impress me. Several times, Pitbull landed in the first round, and you could see Pico visibly freeze for the briefest of moments. He doesn’t take shots well, and I see no reason to believe that flaw is going to suddenly improve now. Meanwhile, Keita is not 39 nor does he stand at 5’6”. He’s taller and longer than Pico, who has been around so long that he’s no longer the wunderkind — he’s two years older than Keita!
“Black Panther” finds the chin and the finish early.
