Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight rivals Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 15, 2026) inside Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pa., for UFC 330.
Despite his undeniable greatness, it doesn’t feel like Makhachev should be encroaching upon the win streak of Anderson Silva just yet. Perhaps it’s because the first half of his win streak took place on the undercard and included a handful of unremarkable decisions.
Or, perhaps the shadow of Khabib Nurmagomedov
is just that extensive? Whatever the cause, a decade unbeaten and 16-straight wins is nothing to scoff at.
Garry, conversely, has been on UFC’s roster for five years and didn’t waste much time before diving into the upper level of competition. In the last couple years, he’s defeated several established veterans, two elite strikers and one former champion to definitively prove that “The Future” has arrived.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Makhachev vs. Garry Betting Odds
- Islam Makhachev victory: -370
- Islam Makhachev via TKO/KO/DQ: +1100
- Islam Makhachev via submission: +220
- Islam Makhachev via decision: +135
- Ian Machado Garry victory: +265
- Ian Machado Garry via TKO/KO/DQ: +1100
- Ian Machado Garry via submission: +4500
- Ian Machado Garry via decision: +420
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Makhachev Wins
Makhachev is likely the most well-rounded fighter produced by the Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov school. Obviously, he’s an exceptional wrestler with a deep pool of techniques, but he’s also an excellent submission fighter with a slick front choke attack. In addition, his kickboxing has been tested on several occasions by excellent competition, and he keeps rising to the challenge.
To win this fight smoothly, Makhachev has to time his shots well. Garry’s footwork is the first and more important layer to his takedown defense. He’s quite good at circling laterally and even hiding his legs while moving forward behind his jab. Makhachev’s job is to strike enough that takedown entries open up without letting Garry really establish his range in the process.
As we saw in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight, that’s easier said than done. One takeaway from that bout that’s important here is Rakhmonov struggled to take down his fellow tall opponent in the clinch. He found more success by shooting below the waist, which could be an important adjustment for Makhachev as well.
I’d like to see Makhachev letting his left leg fly here. He’s a strong kicker, and blasting into the open side will be available throughout the bout. Often, fighters are eager to kick back after taking a shin to the forearms, and that could be his opportunity to catch Garry on one leg with a takedown entry.
How Garry Wins
Garry is a well-rounded and tactical fighter. He’s a sharp kickboxer first and foremost, one who excels at maximizing every inch of his considerable reach and height. At the same time, he’s crafty enough on the canvas to ground Michael Page and reverse Rakhmonov, as well as resist the wrestling of Belal Muhammad.
This may be a hot take, but I don’t believe Garry wins this fight by being evasive. If he employs the run-and-gun strategy he used against Geoff Neal versus Makhachev, he’s really counting on that perfect knee landing. Garry doesn’t usually do a ton of damage when he’s running around the outside, which means he’ll be trying to outpoint an elite wrestler to whom he’s conceded the center of the Octagon.
Does that sound like a recipe for success?
Instead, I’d like to see Garry reasonably aggressive, which does not mean lunging into right hands and giving up easy takedowns. He should be actively hand-fighting and jabbing at Makhachev, throwing straight punches to the body, and firing his right kick into the open side. I’d be particularly interested in seeing Garry kick at the inner calf/shin and pair that with the high kick, as both offensive options are difficult to counter with takedowns.
To score the upset, Garry has to lead the dance rather than enter the cage with a reactive strategy.
Makhachev vs. Garry Prediction
I am torn on this main event matchup. On one hand, Makhachev is one of the winningest fighters in UFC history, and picking against him is statistically stupid. Plus, he just beat Jack Della Maddalena with absolute ease. At the same time, I cannot help but question JDM’s performance in that loss. He didn’t manage to test Makhachev at all, and thus I don’t feel sold yet on Makhachev being an unstoppable force up at Welterweight.
Despite all his accomplishments, the questions linger. After all these years, I still feel Makhachev’s best win is Charles Oliveira.
As for the underdog Garry, he’s come to the Octagon with a smart strategy every step of the way. He took Rakhmonov to the brink, and I consider pre-injury Rakhmonov to be an obviously championship-level fighter. At 28 years of age, Garry is only getting better … but we still have to admit that this is a real step up against the best fighter out there right now.
I don’t think Makhachev submits Garry, nor do I expect Garry to knockout the Russian great. The great question in my mind is whether or not Garry can scramble effectively when — not if — he’s taken down. If he can avoid being pinned for long periods of time, then the size, range and youth of Garry should wear down Makhachev and allow him to build success over time. If not, it will be Garry who finishes the fight worn down by his opponent’s strength and wrestling prowess.
I think it comes down to the wire.
