Before reading this update, you may want to look at this preseason article. It looked at six outfielders who could most exceed expectations. It concluded that Corbin Carroll was the most likely and that maybe two would exceed expectations.
Current status of the players.
Jordan Lawlar broke his wrist. Waldschmidt stayed in the minors. So four players remain.Corbin Carroll is the right fielder, and Alex Thomas is the center fielder. Tim Tawa and Jorge Barrosa are playing the in the outfield to make
up for Lawlar’s absence. Let’s look at those four players to see whether they are exceeding preseason expectations.
Corbin Carroll. My preseason expectation was high. That expectation was the same OBP, SLG, and OAA as last season, and 34 homers (3 more than last season). Also, there are concerns about his recovery from the broken hamate bone.
Batting. His OBP and SLG exceeded my high expectations. He is on track for more homers than last season. In addition, he hit two triples in the first ten games. His impact went beyond expectations. In four of the Diamondbacks first five wins, his RBIs made the game-winning difference. The WPA totaled 1.02 for his top-ten plate appearances. He is playing at an All-Star level.
Let’s look at those four games:
- 30 March, 4 RBIs, D-backs won 9-6.
- 31 March, 2 RBIs, D-backs won 7-5.
- 1 April, 1 RBI, D-backs won 1-0.
- 5 April, 1 RBI and two singles where he crossed the plate, Dbacks won 6-5.
Defense. He is accumulating OAAs at a pace much higher than last season. Perhaps he will be a candidate for a gold glove.
Alek Thomas. My preseason expectation was batting as good as the 2025 league average OBP and SLG, and 6 OAA (the average of his 2023 and 2024 seasons).
Batting. His OBP and SLG are less than past seasons, and lower than 2025 league averages. On the other hand, his potential can be seen because his 4 RBIs are tied with Fernandez and Vargas for second highest on the Diamondbacks. His top-four plate appearance have a WPA totaling 0.26.
Defense. He is accumulating OAAs at a pace much higher than his excellent 2023 and 2024 seasons. His defense in center field is making a huge positive contribution to the Diamondbacks.
Jorge Barrosa. My preseason expectation was batting as good as the 2025 league average OBP and SLG, and 2 OAA
Batting. His .462 SLG is exceeding preseason expectations. His .231 OBP is close the expectations. So far this season, his SLG and OBP are higher than Tim Tawa’s SLG and OBP. His two doubles added a total of 0.14 WPA. Although he received no added WPA for crossing the plate, in the tenth inning of the game on 5 April, as the ghost runner he scored the winning run.
Defense. So far, Baseball Savant shows zero OAA. However, that zero may only indicate that he has not yet accumulated more than 0.5 OAA. It is too soon to draw conclusions about his defense.
Tim Tawa. If he becomes an everyday player, then he will exceed my preseason expectation of a bench player. Before looking at his actual innings played per game, I decided that averaging 0.7 innings per Diamondbacks game would exceed expectations. Tim Tawa started the season as a bench player, averaging 1.8 innings per game. In games 6 through 10, he averaged 6.0 innings per games, very close to being an everyday player. Currently, he is close to exceeding preseason expectations.
The following table compare the four outfielders. Data from Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and MLB com.
Summary.
Corbin Carroll is exceeding preseason expectations for batting and defense. In four of the Diamondbacks first five wins, his RBIs made the game-winning difference. Also, he may be a candidate for a Gold Glove.
Jorge Barrosa’s SLG is exceeding preseason expectations. It’s too soon to decide on his defense.
Alek Thomas’ defense in center field is exceeding preseason expectations. His defense in center field is making a huge positive contribution.
Tim Tawa is close to achieving everyday player status, which would exceed preseason expectations.
