The Cubs trail the Brewers by 6.5 games in the NL Central. Milwaukee has 26 games remaining and the Cubs hav 27.
While it’s still possible the Cubs could get hot and the Brewers slip and the Cubs catch them, the more likely postseason scenario for the Cubs is as a wild card team.
So I thought this afternoon would be a good time to look at the four teams noted in the headline and their remaining schedules. The Cubs currently lead the Padres by two games, are four games ahead of the Mets and nine games ahead of the Reds.
The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a wild-card spot is thus 19. Home games in boldface.
Cubs (15 home, 12 road)
at Rockies (2), Braves (3), Nationals (3), at Braves (3), Rays (3), at Pirates (3), at Reds (4), Mets (3), Cardinals (3)
Per Tankathon, the Cubs have the second-easiest remaining schedule. Of the 27 games remaining, just seven (the series vs. the Reds and Mets) are against teams currently with winning records.
The Cubs have no remaining games outside the Central or Eastern time zone.
Padres (16 home, 11 road)
at Twins (2), Orioles (3), at Rockies (3), Reds (3), Rockies (4), at Mets (3), at White Sox (3), Brewers (3), Diamondbacks (3)
The seven games the Padres have remaining against the Rockies are the biggest reason for the Padres’ strength of remaining schedule, listed as the easiest by Tankathon (upcoming opponents have a .435 combined winning percentage).
The thing that might hurt the Padres is a brutal travel schedule. Starting Sunday they travel from Minnesota to San Diego to Denver to San Diego to New York to Chicago to San Diego in a 23-day span, and they will play in all four time zones during that span.
The Padres trail the Dodgers by two games in the NL West but as you can see, those teams don’t meet again.
Mets (11 home, 16 road)
Marlins (2), at Tigers (3), at Reds (3), at Phillies (4), Rangers (3), Padres (3), Nationals (3), at Cubs (3), at Marlins (3)
The Mets have a much worse record on the road (28-37) than at home (45-25) so this road-heavy schedule could hurt them down the stretch. Also, of their 27 remaining games, 16 are against teams currently with winning records. That’s the seventh-toughest remaining schedule, per Tankathon.
Reds (15 home, 12 road)
Cardinals (2), Blue Jays (3), Mets (3), at Padres (3), at Athletics (3), at Cardinals (3), Cubs (4), Pirates (3), at Brewers (3)
The Reds also have a tough schedule (second-toughest per Tankathon), with 16 of their 27 remaining games against teams currently with winning records. They also have a difficult travel schedule — from Sept. 7 to 18 they will fly from Cincinnati to San Diego to Sacramento to St. Louis to Cincinnati. And they have lost four in a row and seven of their last eight.
It should be noted that the Giants, who swept the Cubs this week, have won six straight and are now just a game behind the Reds (and are also a game under .500). It’s unlikely they come back, just as it’s unlikely for the Reds. But the Giants are not completely done yet.
