Shortstop Xander Bogaerts signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the San Diego Padres prior to the 2023 season. After a decade with the Boston Red Sox, Bogaerts hit the free-agent market. He rejected an initial four-year, $90 million offer, followed by a six-year, $162 million offer from the Red Sox. By turning down offers of $22.5 million a year for four years and $27 million a year for six years, Bogaerts made it clear that a long-term deal was the only option for a team wanting to sign him.
Gaslamp Ball’s Lincoln Zudnick began his Padres roster review after the Friars were eliminated from the playoffs. His grade for Bogaerts, a C+, reflected the shortstop’s decidedly mediocre performance in a Padres uniform. It would be hard to argue with the grade. Bogaerts arrived in San Diego and has never resembled the player he was in Boston. Taking into account injuries that significantly affected his performance in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, the past season was basically injury-free, yet it was his worst offensive season yet.
A look at the underlying numbersshows a career-low effectiveness against offspeed pitches. After hitting .318 versus offspeed in 2025, Bogaerts had a .138 batting average in 2026. Looking back over past seasons, offspeed and breaking pitches have challenged Bogaerts in the past but never to the extent as in this past season.
After being unable to bring his average above .212 for any month following April, Bogaerts and the Padres’ hitting coaches brought the split grip into Bogaerts’ approach. For the month of September, Bogaerts hit .315 with a .479 slugging percentage.
He carried that over into the postseason, hitting .286/.348/.476 in the six games.
The big question remains: what happened to Bogaerts’ power after arriving in San Diego?
His bat speed and exit velocity remain consistent. His launch angle and sweet spot numbers have taken the biggest drop over the past three seasons, but his hard-hit percentage also remains consistent.
The defense is still good
With average to below-average arm strength, Bogaerts is still an above-average shortstop. Over his four seasons with the Padres, his Outs Above Average have always been three or above, even during the two seasons when injuries curtailed his effectiveness. He will be in his age 34 season in 2027, past his prime and having to work much harder to stay in his position. No doubt that will change at some point before the end of the contract, and his position will need to change.
One thing seems clear: he is not an option for DH with his offensive struggles. First base would be a likely spot for the future, a subject not yet publicly addressed.
Getting the most out of the investment
Per Fangraphs, which places a dollar value on players in their stats pages, Bogaerts was worth $36.8 million in his first season with the Padres (2023). Since then, his value has been $16.3 million (2024), $25.9 million (2025), and $21.1 million for the past season. The average annual value for his contract is $25.45 million.
Most of his value has been placed on the defensive side since his 2023 season.
Manager Craig Stammen obviously recognized the need to move the veteran down in the batting order as his struggles went on for most of the season. At the bottom third of the batting order, Bogaerts can be more effective as he has consistently had an on-base average over .300 and mostly above .320 as a Padre. His strikeout rate is consistent, and he had his highest walk rate this past season.
Minimizing the damage
There is no arguing that the Padres have a payroll weighed down by two aging veterans with crippling contracts. Both Manny Machado and Bogaerts will be well past their productive years by the time the two contracts expire in 2033.
Making the most of that investment will be the challenge the organization has to deal with in the coming seasons. Machado is still highly productive, despite having his worst season offensively. Bogaerts will need to be open to change in order for the team to minimize the damage done by signing a player who has not been able to repeat his previous success.
