The Washington Commanders 2026 schedule hasn’t been released for long, yet it has already been broken down every which way. That was certainly the case here at Hogs Haven, where Scott Jennings and I have been writing about it virtually none stop since the official NFL schedule release on Thursday evening.
That includes game-by-game predictions, trends and analysis of how the schedule could help or hurt the Commander situation in 2026.
Now we’re on to the deep dive portion of the NFL schedule analysis,
which happens after the analytics folks wrap their tech-savvy minds around it.
There has been some interesting observations about the Commanders schedule and others, with terms like rest differential. That’s the amount of rest heading into a game compared to another team and then combined into a 17-game total.
Arif Hasan broke down rest differential for the entire league.
Brian Burke of ESPNAnalytics also created some charts regarding rest differential from a historic perspective. Commanders fans will like the look of that and some other notes about this 2026 slate.
Will any of these factoids mention matter more than Washington team health and cohesion or the opponents faced? Especially during a rough stretch to start the season? Methinks not.
But they are interesting and something to ponder as we digest the Commanders schedule overall during a slow period in the NFL calendar.
According to Burke, the Commanders have a plus-11 rest differential. (Hasan has it at 10.5). Either way, Dallas, Buffalo and Chicago round out the top four — and one of the highest totals since 2002.
That seems like an overall positive – more on that later – and is tied to facing teams coming off a bye and facing teams on their short weeks.
Last year, the Commanders faced four teams coming off a bye. That’s the highest total since 2002, but other teams have dealt with that number.
Washington didn’t deal with it well, though injuries and a lost season probably played a bigger factor that, and went 1-3 against teams coming off byes.
Overall, however, teams dealt with opponents off a bye decently well.
While the Commanders won’t deal with teams off a bye week this year, Washington will have at least two road games on short rest. They’ll travel to the New York Giants in Week 10 for Thursday Night Football. And they’ll play at Arizona after facing Cincinnati at home on Monday Night Football. Flex scheduling could play a factor in all this near the season’s end as well.
Here’s a more football-minded way to look at it. Based on DVOA projections, There are few teams with a more difficult stretch over the season’s first half, when the Commanders play the Eagles (twice), Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers and Rams.
Bottom line: Washington must find 2024 form, stay healthy, beat some good teams and deal with these little scheduling quirks to reach their ultimate goals.
