We’re a few hours away from a brand new season of San Francisco Giants baseball. Over the last four years, the Giants have gone 321-327. The hope, then, is that starting tonight — when the Giants host the New York Yankees at 5:05 p.m. PT on Netflix — the Giants can put together a campaign that’s more than two games off of the center line for the first time since 2021 which, was also their last winning season.
To prepare you for tonight’s matchup, here are 26 predictions for the Giants 2026 season.
They’re mostly (though not entirely) optimistic, because if you’re a Giants fan who doesn’t have optimism on March 25, when will you have it? And they’re mostly not incredibly bold, because … well … look … yes I’m optimistic, but I’m trying to also be realistic here. And we’ll make them quick (editor’s note: no, apparently, we will not), because it’s Opening Day, you’ve got things to do!
1. Willy Adames and Rafael Devers start the season hot
There’s no denying that Willy Adames and Rafael Devers are two of the team’s best hitters. There’s also no denying that their respective introductions to the fanbase last year didn’t go as planned. Adames, fresh off signing the (then) largest contract in franchise history, was hitting .193/.281/.303 a week into June. Devers, who came over later that month in a blockbuster trade with the Boston Red Sox, hit 21-100 with 36 strikeouts in his first 28 games following the deal.
Just for good measure, they were — among players who made the Opening Day roster — the two coldest hitters on the team in Cactus League play, with respective OPS figures of .438 and .510.
I’m saying it doesn’t matter, and they hit the ground running. Starting tonight. Speaking of which…
2. Someone plays 160 games
A year ago, Devers became the rare player who appeared in 163 games, thanks to the schedule at the time of the trade. It was the fourth time in his career he played at least 150 games. Adames? 160 games last year, and 161 the year prior. Matt Chapman has played in 150 games on four different occasions, while Heliot Ramos got into 157 games a year ago.
160 is a large number of games, and the smart money says that everyone will get dinged up enough that it doesn’t happen. But I don’t listen to the smart money. Which, unfortunately, explains a lot about me.
3. The Giants have more debuts this year than last year
Last year, six different Giants made their Major League debut, with an even split between position players and pitchers: hitters Christian Koss, Bryce Eldridge, and Drew Gilbert, and arms Carson Whisenhunt, Carson Seymour, and Joel Peguero.
I think we’ll get more this year. That’s perhaps slightly bold, given that the Giants didn’t make any Rule 5 protections this season, though they did make a Rule 5 selection in Daniel Susac, who made the Opening Day roster and thus, barring something truly unexpected, will be the first Giant to debut this season.
The bulk of the young, unproven players in camp this year (like the aforementioned Carsons) have already made their debuts, though there were a few standouts — Victor Bericoto, anyone? — who are still waiting for the first call. San Francisco has a set enough roster that this may be a bold prediction, but there’s also talent in the pipeline.
4. Logan Webb throws multiple complete game shutouts
I think Logan Webb ends the year still searching for his elusive first no-hitter, but along the way, I’ll say he makes it through nine donut innings on multiple occasions. Webb has just two such games in his career — once each in 2024 and 2025 — and, subsequently, has led the National League in them in each of the past two years.
5. Adrian Houser is replaced
This prediction looked smarter a few weeks ago, when it was accompanied by a rosier prediction: Hayden Birdsong ends the year as the team’s No. 2 starter. Since then, Birdsong was shut down and scheduled for Tommy John surgery, ending his 2026 before it began.
I still think that Houser ends the year outside of the rotation, and not because of injury. The Giants will give him every chance to stick, since he’s on a two-year deal, and I think he’ll be fine. Not good, per se, but fine. But at some point, something better will come along — maybe the development of Whisenhunt, Seymour, Trevor McDonald, or Blade Tidwell; maybe a trade; maybe a reliever who gets a chance to stretch out — and the Ginats will shift Houser to a different role (or the same role, with a different team).
On that note…
6. The rotation looks worse entering the offseason than last year
The Giants rotation doesn’t project to be good, but it’s not hard to see how it could overperform and be an asset. But even if that happens, the team has quite an issue ahead of them: after patching two spots in the rotation this past winter, they’ll enter the next offseason in at least the same situation, with Robbie and Tyler Mahle entering free agency. I already predicted that Houser will lose his spot in the starting five, but that doesn’t guarantee the Giants find a suitable replacement, as we all saw with Jordan Hicks a year ago. There’s a very real world in which the Giants enter the offseason with a rotation of Webb, Landen Roupp, and a trio of question marks.
7. They have three All-Stars
This one just feels right. The Giants have a quartet of clear All-Star talents in Webb, Adames, Devers, and Chapman. Patrick Bailey is an All-Star level catcher, though he doesn’t hit well enough to get recognized as such. Ryan Walker has been an All-Star level reliever in the past. Heliot Ramos has been a literal All-Star, and Luis Arráez has been three times. Harrison Bader and Jung Hoo Lee have it in them if everything breaks right.
Most of those players won’t be All-Stars this year. But three of them will be.
8. We see Tim Lincecum
Everyone’s favorite Giant, Tim Lincecum, has mostly been absent at 24 Willie Mays Plaza since retiring. That’s always been part of Timmy’s lore: I’m not sure there’s ever been a Giant who was more personable and fan friendly, yet I’m also not sure there’s ever been a Giant who so badly wanted to hide from the spotlight of stardom. He is, at once, as comfortable and uncomfortable as you can be with the idea of being adored by the masses.
That will never change. Fans clamoring for Lincecum to show up at the ballpark on a regular basis like Mays did and Barry Bonds does, will always be disappointed. You won’t see him yukking it up with Kruk and Kuip in the broadcast booth once a month, or running drills with Buster Posey in Scottsdale. The dam will never break, but at some point I expect someone to come along and meagerly splash some water from one side of it onto the other. Maybe it’s a Wall of Fame ceremony, maybe it’s to celebrate Brandon Belt, or maybe it’s entirely out of the blue, but I think we see the long hair and soul-healing smile of Tim Lincecum sometime this year.
Above all else, I hope he’s doing OK.
9. ABS has no impact on Patrick Bailey’s defense
When it was announced that the automated balls and strikes challenge system was coming to Major League Baseball, fans flocked to question how it would impact Bailey’s all-world framing statistics. I always felt like the answer was “not at all.” While Bailey has been known to egregiously steal a strike or two, the bulk of his framing value — to my eye — comes from the 50/50 balls. It sounds silly to say, but a lot of Bailey’s defensive wizardry comes in the form of helping umpires get the correct call, not the incorrect one. A good framer is less invested in getting the pitches four inches off the plate called for strikes, and more determined to insure that the ones that just tickle the edge of the zone are properly called. With only two failed challenges allowed, it’s hard to see that skill being notably diminished under the new system.
10. The bullpen will look dramatically different at the end of the year
There’s always a lot of turnover in the bullpen. That’s the case for all 30 teams. Players surprise, for better and for worse; injuries abound; and guys need rest and reset time.
I predict an especially heavy turnover year for the Giants bullpen. I think the eight arms in the ‘pen for Game No. 162 will have more than 50% turnover from the octet that will be behind the outfield wall at Oracle Park tonight. And along those lines…
11. We get more bullpen heat
I’ll admit it: the Giants had me worried this offseason with their bullpen plan of action. They still do, admittedly, though that fear has been slightly reduced. I wasn’t a fan of the way the front office — which had already traded Camilo Doval and lost Randy Rodríguez for the year — targeted crafty finesse relievers, instead of chasing the electric stuff that defines every good modern bullpen. My fears were compounded when the team traded Kai-Wei Teng right before camp, and then Birdsong suffered his season-ending injury, and then they reassigned Gregory Santos and his triple-digit heater to Minor League camp.
But they happily surprised me with their Opening Day roster, which included the admissions of both Keaton Winn and Caleb Kilian. I suspect those two will stick, and more heat will join them (and Erik Miller). Santos will likely get called up at some point, and Joel Peguero will get healthy eventually. Will Bednar will likely factor into the mix eventually, and perhaps Blade Tidwell moves from the AAA rotation to the MLB bullpen. Spencer Miles probably gets returned by the Toronto Blue Jays some day. As a result, by the end of the year, I project the bullpen to be modernized, with a whole slew of flame-throwing arms.
While we’re on the subject…
12. Gregory Santos will be their best reliever
I want to make it clear that this is a positive Santos prediction, not a negative Walker one. I think Walker will have a fantastic year, and I believe he’ll stay in the closer role all year long, and deservedly so.
But I also think that, by the end of the year, the reliever you think is best on the team is Santos. Perhaps it sounds like I’m a little high on the aforementioned 100-mph fastball. Maybe it seems as though I’m being very bold by predicting an NRI who has already been reassigned ends the year as the star of the ‘pen. You might think I’m just clinging to an old belief in someone who was once one of the top prospects in the system, despite that being many years ago, before getting designated for assignment and playing for two other franchises before returning home.
No. It’s just an understanding that Santos, when healthy and in rhythm, is really good. He only has one healthy season (2023 with the Chicago White Sox), but in that year he ranked 11th out of all MLB relievers in FIP (2.65) and 15th in fWAR (1.5). His average fastball velocity (98.8 mph) was 98th percentile out of all MLB pitchers, while his walk rate (5.9%) was 85th percentile, and his barrel rate (1.5%) was 100th percentile. It is, frankly, a staggering profile.
He didn’t have the best spring, which is understandable: he’s only pitched 26.2 innings over the last two seasons, between both the Majors and the Minors. He has rust. But his injuries weren’t to his arm, and he’s only 26 years old. Expecting Santos to stay healthy might be a bold prediction; thinking he’ll excel if healthy, on the other hand, is a very mild one.
13. Rafael Devers is a Gold Glove finalist
Count me among those who were very impressed by how well — and quickly — Devers caught on at first base last year. And count me among those who think that anyone who can play third base in the Majors — even play it poorly, as Devers did — can handle first fairly gracefully. Give him a full season at the bag, and working with Ron Washington, and I think Devers will end the year as an asset at the corner, rather than a liability.
14. Harrison Bader and Luis Arráez go in different directions
It’s pretty obvious why the Giants went after Bader and Arráez this offseason, and made the pair the only two position players they signed to Major League deals. Both provide things the team desperately needed: in Bader’s case, center field defense and a third outfielder that isn’t a massive question mark; in Arráez’s case, a contact maven who can provide offense without regularly striking out, and frustrate opposing pitchers.
Yet while both offer some clear skills that the team desperately needs, they also have some glaring red flags in their respective games, and it’s why the market never fully materialized for either player (even in a modest offseason, Bader and Arráez earned just the 16th and 24th largest total contracts, respectively, among position players).
For Bader, the red flag comes from healthy pessimism that he can’t repeat his 2025 offensive performance. He hit so well last year (122 wRC+) that he ended up being a critical part of a sensational Philadelphia Phillies offense. But that came after a three-year run of hitting .239/.284/.360, for a wRC+ of 80. In other words, after three straight years of hitting like Bailey, Bader suddenly hit like Chapman in his age-31 season. The defensive savant has credited those improvements to a changed swing, but I’m dubious that it’s anything sustainable. His underlying statistics didn’t look much different, and still paint a fairly grim picture, and it’s easy to look at his success and see a lot of luck at play: he had a .359 BABIP, after entering the year with a career mark of just .292. Subsequently, his batting average (.277) outpaced his expected average (.220) by an outrageous 57 points, while his slugging (.449) was ahead of his expected slugging (.374) by a full 75 points. All while rocking a strikeout rate (27.1%) that was 7.4 percentage points ahead of his mark during his prior three years.
As for Arráez, the known concern is his poor second base defense, but I’m more worried about the declining numbers on offense. His wRC+ has gone from 131 in 2023, to 109 in 2024, to 104 a year ago, while his batting average has dipped from .354 to .314 to .292. If those trend lines continue, he’ll be a below-average hitter in 2026, with no defensive or baserunning value to make up for it.
The worst case scenario for each player is still a valuable addition to the Giants. Bader is good enough defensively to be a huge part of the team no matter how he hits, even if he eventually becomes a fourth outfielder. And Arráez is competitive enough with his at-bats that he’ll always provide something the Giants need in the batter’s box.
So my cop-out prediction is this: the red flags portend struggles for one of those players, but not for both of them. I don’t know which one. But the Giants will end the season either looking for a starting center fielder so Bader can be a defensive replacement, while bemoaning the fact that they can’t afford to re-sign Arráez, or they’ll end it geeked about Bader being their All-Star-level man in the middle, while wondering what the hell they should do at the keystone. Actually, let me amend that last point…
15. They figure out second base
The Giants haven’t hidden their concerns at second base, but they haven’t fully addressed them, either. They didn’t make a run at Bo Bichette in free agency. They flirted with trades for Brendan Donovan and CJ Abrams, but ultimately landed on a one-year deal for Arráez, with Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss backing him up.
I’m assuming there’s a belief within the organization that they only need a stopgap at the position for a few years. Four of their best prospects — Josuar González, Luis Hernández, Jhonny Level, and Gavin Kilen — play shortstop, which means at least one of them is likely to move to the other side of the bag, either to facilitate roster logistics or cover up defensive deficiencies. But none of those four have played about Low-A, so they need to figure something out for at least another year after this one, and probably two.
I predict they do exactly that. Perhaps Arráez rebounds offensively while showing off improved defense after a spring in the desert with Washington, and the team extends him before the year ends. Maybe he craters, and Schmitt or Koss takes the job and runs with it. Don’t sleep on Rodríguez, either: he may be the third-string catcher, but he was initially developed as a third baseman, spent much of spring at second, and has one hell of a bat. And hell, who knows … maybe they revisit those Abrams discussions at the trade deadline.
16. Kyle Harrison dominates them
My favorite move of the offseason didn’t involve the Giants at all: it was the Red Sox trading Kyle Harrison to the Milwaukee Brewers. Harrison, once the top prospect in the organization, hadn’t done well in his short stint with the BoSox, and now his fortunes have reversed. Instead of being in an organization that doesn’t value the pitches he throws the best, he gets new life with a team known for spinning gold out of hay bales of pitching prospects.
I expect big things for Harrison. He’s still just 24, and I haven’t forgotten the way he set Minor League records while tearing through the farm system. If there’s a place where he can succeed, it’s unequivocally Milwaukee.
So far, that’s what he’s done. Harrison not only made the Opening Day roster, but did so as part of the Brewers’ rotation. He’ll get a chance to prove himself every fifth day, and if he lines up to face the Gians this year … well … I expect that to go very, very well for him, and very poorly for the Giants. It just makes sense.
It should be noted that the Devers trade was, without question, a good one for the Giants. No amount of Harrison success will change that. But … if Harrison has a breakout season for the Brew Crew, it won’t reflect well on the Giants. While it won’t make them regret the trade in the slightest, it will open up the door for criticism. Why was their development team unable to get the most out of Harrison, when another team could? Why didn’t they push for a different prospect package and make their homegrown ace-in-the-making untouchable?
And as long as we’re talking about old friends…
17. Luis Matos has a big year … somewhere
As expected, the Giants designated Matos for assignment on Wednesday. He didn’t make the Opening Day roster, and he didn’t have options, and so his Giants story likely ends.
San Francisco waited until the 11th hour to DFA Matos, in hopes that he can sneak through waivers, but I doubt he does. He’d make a lot of sense on a bad team that can give him run, or on a team dealing with spring injuries that needs a fill-in, or on a team that just lost Jurickson Profar to a 162-game suspension, just to name a few.
And I think he has a big year. This is not rooted in anything analytical: it’s really hard to look at Matos’ stats and underlying metrics and find a reason for optimism. Instead, it’s just a vibes and hope-based bold prediction, that the Matos who has shown flashes over the years finally puts it all together. There are certainly crazier things than a just-turned-24-year-old former top prospect figuring things out, even if it’s hard to envision how that would actually happen.
18. They swing another big deadline deal
I think the Giants are mostly done spending money. They still owe nearly half a billion to Devers, Adames, and Chapman, and their ownership group is openly, if not proudly, hesitant to dole out big contracts. And at some point they have to start planning for either a Logan Webb extension, or a big free agent to minimize the blowback after letting Webb sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
So I don’t expect the Giants to redo the Devers trade this summer, and take Bryce Harper or Fernando Tatis Jr. off someone’s hands, though I’d love to see that. But I still think they make a big trade. Likely that means giving up a few of their best prospects for a young, cost-controlled talent, but if they struggle in the standings, it could mean parting ways with some of their MLB-level players, and really re-upping the farm. And yet, despite that…
19. They have a top-five farm by the end of the year
This one is a fairly bold prediction. The Giants’ farm system has been steadily trending in the right direction, but they’re still a ways away from being in the top five. And while they’ll get a boost from having the No. 4 overall pick in July’s draft, they’ll likely take an even bigger hit, as top prospect Bryce Eldridge will almost certainly graduate this year.
But farms are built on top-end talent, and I think the Giants will replace Eldridge the increased development of González and Hernández. I project the former is a top-five prospect at year’s end, and the latter a top-25. With players like Level, Kilen, Bo Davidson, Dakota Jordan, and Parks Harber threatening to rise the ranks as well, to make no mention of their cast of exciting young pitchers, it’s not inconceivable that the team could end the year with a farm system positively bursting with potential, even without Eldridge. And while I’ve got you here…
20. Bryce Eldridge has a distinctly mediocre season
Eldridge is unquestionably one of the top prospects in baseball. Yet there’s a reason that every projection system expects him to be, at best, an average bat with a sky-high strikeout rate. And there’s a reason he’s beginning the year in AAA.
He’ll be back in the Majors soon enough, and he’ll be must-watch TV when he is. And really, this prediction is less about throwing cold water on the Eldridge hype, and more about resetting your expectations. The lefty won’t turn 22 until a few days before the World Series, and will watch hundreds and hundreds of players older than he is get drafted in July.
Sure, we might all be dreaming of him anchoring the heart of the lineup with Devers, but here’s the reality: if Eldridge hits at the league average this season, that’s the type of performance that will have people writing sentences like this ahead of the 2027 season: Eldridge held his own as a 21-year getting his first taste of MLB pitching, so we can expect him to break out with a star-level performance this year.
That’s just how it goes. Eldridge is going to face the best pitchers in the world, who will have a scouting report on him. He’ll see pitches and gameplans that he’s never been exposed to before. He’ll struggle to tread water. And if he holds his own, just at an average level, that will be a sign of how good he is, not how bad he is.
21. There are more Tommy John surgeries coming down the line
The Giants have lost two of their most exciting pitchers to Tommy John surgery in the last eight months: Rodríguez last fall, and Birdsong this spring. Despite that, they’ve been remarkably good at keeping their pitchers from needing TJ over the years. That can’t last forever, and I fear that more such surgeries are in their future, be it at he Major League or Minor League levels. I’m not going to predict anyone in particular, though, as that would be supremely grim. Hey, let’s talk about something happier.
22. They have five 20-homer hitters
Last year, Adames finally broke the 30-home run curse that had lasted nearly two decades. This year, I predict the Giants have a remarkably balanced attack with the long ball, with a quintet putting the ball over the fence at least 20 times. Adames and Devers are locks if healthy: neither player has ever failed to hit 20 homers in a full season. Chapman is a near-lock. I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to project Ramos to pop for 20.
That still leaves one more spot though. I don’t know who it will be, but there are options. If Eldridge is called up sometime before June, he has a great chance of getting there. If either Schmitt or Jerar Encarnación gets consistent playing time, they could do it. Bader had 17 a year ago, so it’s not entirely inconceivable. Arráez surprisingly just got there if you combine his last three seasons…
Moving on.
23. Heliot Ramos rebounds in the right ways
The worst-kept secret in baseball is my undying belief in Ramos. If belief paid real dividends, you wouldn’t be reading this silly 5,000-word article, because I’d have retired to a beach somewhere after 2024. But 2025 was not just a step backwards for the now-26 year old, but it was an odd season. Much was made of his atrocious defensive play, and his uncharacteristic blunders on the basepaths, both of which are well document. But what flew under the radar was his regression against left-handed pitchers. After crushing southpaws at a historic pace in 2024 — he had a .370/.439/.750 slash line, for a 222 wRC+ — Ramos fell back to earth in 2025, hitting just .254/.323/.420, good for a 107 wRC+.
But also flying under the radar was his emergence against righties. Ramos looked like he had potential to slip into a platoon in 2024, when he only hit .240/.286/.387, with an 89 wRC+ against same-handed pitchers. Remarkably, in 2025, he hit them nearly as well as lefties, slashing .257/.330/.392, with a 106 wRC+.
The result was that, while Ramos’ overall offensive package took a step backwards, he was the rare hitter who was comfortably above league-average against both right-handers and left-handers. The success against righties came in a huge sample size (more than 500 plate appearances), which gives us a lot of reason to believe it’s sustainable. I think we’ll see a rebound against left-handed hitters … not to the Aaron Judge-esque 1.189 OPS that he posted two years ago, but to something in between his 2024 and 2025. That, combined with sustained above-average hitting against righties, would make him one of the top hitters in baseball.
Perhaps more importantly, I think the defense recovers. It seems very clear that Ramos’ struggles in the grass a year ago were primarily mental, and both he and his coaches have said all the right things about him this spring. He has all the tools, he just needs to make them work. There’s a big year waiting for him.
24. Daniel Susac survives the year, but…
Most Rule 5 picks don’t last on their new team all year, and that’s doubly true for catchers. But I think Susac will be the exception to the rule. The Giants are fairly enamored with him, and they don’t need great production from their backup catcher, given how heavily they’ll rely on Bailey. They’ve been impressed with his defense, and his power — which is either excellent or underwhelming, depending on who you ask — was eye-opening in Spring Training, where his exit velocities were highly notable.
Susac has the makings of the rare Rule 5 pick who both has too much potential to not hoard, and is good enough to stick on talent alone. He entered the spring in pole position for the role due to his Rule 5 status, but ended the spring having won the job simply by outplaying veteran Eric Haase and Rodríguez, one of the top prospects.
Which brings us to the “but…” This one’s a double prediction: I think Susac survives the year and plays well, but Rodríguez also becomes a huge part of the team at some point, be it as a second baseman, a third catcher, a fourth outfielder, or a super-utility player. There’s room at the table for both of them.
25. Tony Vitello doesn’t get thrown out early on
There’s been a lot of discussion about when Tony Vitello will get his first career ejection. He’s a manager who leads with a lot of energy, and wears emotions on his sleeve. He’s not afraid to mix things up. Those are the traits of someone who will get thrown out early and often.
I don’t buy the early part, though. Probably not the often part, either. For all his outward emotion, Vitello doesn’t strike me as the sort to pump up his team by getting ejected. I kind of feel like he’d view that as abandoning them. Especially in the early going, when he’s still establishing himself, he’ll want to make sure that he’s right there with his players, and not leaving them out on the grassy, playful battlefield.
Then again, MLB umps have more fragile egos than the ones in the SEC, so he may be in for a rude surprise at some point…
26. The Giants finish second in the NL West, and make the postseason
We end with the happiest prediction of all: postseason baseball returns to San Francisco. This prediction is partially optimism about the Giants, and partially pessimism about the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. I’ll stop short of saying they catch the Dodgers — wouldn’t that be fun, though? — but I think the curse of mediocrity is broken, and the Giants return to the postseason.
Happy Opening Day, everyone. Enjoy the optimism, even if it lasts for just a few hours.
