This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Green Bay Packers. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
The Blueprint for an Upset
I will be clear about this up front: no one is picking Cleveland to win this game, and deservedly so. Nonetheless, to keep our sanity this early in the season, we need to come up with a blueprint for the Browns to pull off an upset. The Browns already have have the recipe with their defense, Cleveland ranks
first on defense after two weeks, allowing a league-low 191.5 yards per game. Their run defense (45.5 yards per game) is absurd, and passing-wise, they’re only allowing 146 yards through the air per game.
What I have seen through these two weeks with the Browns has been…different. Last year, and even the year before that (when Cleveland was a top unit), I criticized the team for not adapting to opposing offenses playing off of their aggressiveness. I get the sense that the Bengals and Ravens could already see how good Cleveland’s defensive front was, to the point where Lamar Jackson didn’t even try to run for most of that game, even when the offense was stagnant. Now, unfortunately, after multiple short field opportunities, Jackson eventually found the one mismatch that Cleveland couldn’t patch up: with Denzel Ward out with cramps, Cameron Mitchell struggled. Hopefully, Ward won’t have issues this week.
The issues are all on the offensive side of the ball, as well as special teams. The number of egregious mistakes by these units is killing the spirit of the team, when in reality, virtually “doing nothing” would at least allow the defense to keep them in a game. Now, of course, I’m not saying the Browns should strive to be a boring, ball control offense only. They need to find an identity that fuels them. The best way to quickly get there might rely heavily on one guy: RB Quinshon Judkins. It might seem crazy to pin everything on a rookie running back, but there was clearly a different element to when he touched the ball last week vs. the team’s other running backs.
The Browns will also hopefully get Jack Conklin back this week. Prior to the season, we were all excited about the offensive line getting back to the zone blocking scheme and Kevin Stefanski’s offense. The problem is, the group has been making way too many mistakes. One guy misses something, and the whole play gets blown up. The backup running backs aren’t delivering the best blocks. Teams aren’t respecting the run, and therefore, the playaction game isn’t working.
Cleveland can have a domino effect of success on offense if they can get the ground game going with Judkins. It opens everything up and will help this receiving group that isn’t as talented as most groups in the league. The problem is, I don’t know “when” it will click. Could it be this week? Next week? The week after? Whenever the little things are in sync, the mistakes will be reduced, and we can see this Browns team begin to play complementary football.
Quick Hitters
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz talked about how Jordan Love is different than some quarterbacks, as their offense tries to find the big play rather than focusing on the highest possible completion percentage:
“I mean, that’s just built into what they do. I mean, when it’s all said and done, on first and second down they’re a run play action team. And when they play action, they want to take shots. And you look at (Jordan) Love and look at his completion percentage, and it’s not eye popping the way some guys are. A lot of guys, 75%, 70%. And it’s not that he’s an inaccurate passer, it’s reflective of how many deep shots he takes. And they’re very surgical with those. They use their run to set up that stuff. It doesn’t work if you’re not a good running offense, and it goes back to Jacobs. Their run creates their opportunities to push the ball down the field on those first and second downs. And that’s just sort of built into the way they do things.”
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees seems to attribute some of the offensive line’s struggles to not only guys being out, but that chemistry of the starting five basically not playing together these first two games, after preparing all of camp together:
“Yeah, we felt like we had it during training camp. I mean, that position group…it’s five guys, but it’s really one, right? I mean, they have to see things the same way, they have to work together in combination, both run and pass. So, I do think, as the year goes on, you start to get more comfortable with the guy that’s next to you. You start to be able to feel and play off one another. But again, we’ve had that group for the majority of training camp. Cornelius (Lucas) is a guy who’s taken a lot of reps for us throughout camp, whether it be on a day where maybe somebody was limited or just moving on both sides. So, confidence in that, but it will continue to build and grow within that group.”
Some other notes to look forward to:
- It is critical that the Browns have the right gameplan for Micah Parsons, who has been on a tear for these first two games. If Cleveland allows Parsons to do what a Roquan Smith was able to do last week, for example, then the offense is going to be stuck in mud all game again. This is where you certainly miss the days of Joe Thomas. On one hand, it seems like just yesterday that when didn’t have to worry about the team’s top pass rushers each week. In reality, though, it’s been eight years since the Browns have had a reliable left tackle, which seems crazy now.
- The Browns elevated WR Kaden Davis and CB Dom Jones from the practice squad for Sunday’s game. Considering the receiver position is healthy, we’re assuming that the team wants to bolster special teams and have Davis as a gunner. Could Jones also be a gunner? Or, is the team trying to address the nickelback issue, and giving Jones a shot there this week?
- DeAndre Carter cleared the concussion protocol, and will be available to return kicks. Andre Szmyt was removed from the injury report, so he should be fine. And lastly, Corey Bojorquez must be ok enough to punt too. The only player not available for Cleveland still is DT Mike Hall Jr. With the way the team’s defensive tackles are playing, though, there’s no rush to get him on the field.
- Jerry Jeudy, out of everyone on the Browns’ roster, is the top player who needs to step up in my opinion. I’ve counted four drops from him in these first two games, and two of them directly or indirectly led to interceptions. We’re counting on him rising to the occasion and being a No. 1 receiver, and right now, he doesn’t even look like a good No. 2 receiver. We know he can run the routes very well; he just needs to get back into a groove, and fast.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Chris Pokorny: “Despite last week’s debacle, I know the Browns have a chance to turn the corner at some point with a unique style of shutdown defense, and a methodical offense. With how good the Packers’ defense has been through two weeks too, though, I can’t exactly pick this to be Cleveland’s first upset. I’ll at least pick them to keep it close at home.” Packers 23, Browns 20
Jared Mueller: “Similar to the Bengals game, and what they wanted to do against the Ravens, the Browns try to control the clock with the short passing game and a bigger use of Quinshon Judkins in Week 3. Keeping the ball out of Jordan Love’s hands with the potent offense he has around him is key, but Cleveland also cannot be predictable or the offense will get smothered once again. No way I’m picking the Browns here, but a big upset could turn the narrative around quickly.” Packers 24, Browns 17
Barry Shuck: “Discussing this game is like the supervisor in the movie “Office Space.” “Yeah, I’m going to need you to come in tomorrow, oh, and Sunday, too.” So, yeah. Cleveland against the Packers. Yeah, so we’re going to need the Browns players to play out of their skin on Sunday, okay? The Browns have zero running game; in fact, they are ranked #26, but that’s okay because the Packers are #2 against the run. What this means is that QB Joe Flacco has thrown it 45 times in both losses and will throw it 50 times since Green Bay is middle of the pack in terms of stopping the pass. Did I mention that the Pack is 2-0 and has beaten two good teams already? “Yeah, well, we might need the team to stay after the game on Sunday and do a quick workout in the parking lot.” Browns’ defense is for real this year, but they are just on the field too long and wear out in the last quarter.” Packers 30, Browns 13
Curtiss Brown: “No one is talking about how this could potentially be a trap game for the Green Bay Packers. Considering that the Packers play the Dallas Cowboys next week (which is Micah Parsons’s homecoming game to the state of Texas), the Packers could easily overlook the Browns and end up dropping this game. Green Bay’s offense is good but their offensive line is a bit of a question mark, and their passing game has been boom or bust. The Packers aren’t afraid to throw the ball down the field and QB Jordan Love has thrown the ball deep more than usual. Love isn’t afraid to spread the wealth but he has shown some tendencies to do too much. Defensively, Green Bay’s pass rush is stout (same as Cleveland’s). The only way Cleveland can have a chance of winning is if they keep Jordan Love off the field and sustain drives on offense. Also, Green Bay’s special teams hasn’t been great just like Cleveland’s so that battle will be close to watch. This has trap game written all over it because of Green Bay’s Sunday night game looming next week. Close game to start but Green Bay wins on a last minute drive.” Packers 24, Browns 19
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
