Luis Arraez is a player of extremes. When you look at his Baseball Savant page, all of his stats are either in the top 5 percentile of the bottom 5 percentile. His outlier skillset has made him a polarizing
player and a guy fans love to talk about.
He has won three batting titles in his career and is only 28 years old, but his market will not be as strong as you would think. That lesser market could be an opportunity for Paul Toboni and the Nats, who are in need of a first baseman. We will talk about why Arraez is so polarizing, and discuss his strengths and weaknesses. At the end, you can all decide if he is a fit for the Nats.
The first reason why his market might be slow is that he is coming off a down year. His .292 batting average and .719 OPS were both career lows. While .292 is a great batting average for most hitters, Arraez needs to be over .300 to have value due to the rest of his profile. Arraez was making as much contact as ever, but he was hitting more ground balls and using the middle of the field less.
Don’t get it twisted, Luis Arraez is the best pure contact hitter in all of baseball. He struck out only 3.1% of the time last season, which is totally bonkers. Striking out 21 times in 620 at bats is just totally nuts in an era where pitchers are throwing harder than ever. Arraez also whiffed just 5.3 percent of the time. To put that into context, Daylen Lile, who is a good contact hitter in his own right whiffed 18.9 percent of the time.
One crazy fact I found out about Arraez is that he has gone to bed a .300 career hitter every night of his career. Only 11 guys in MLB history can say that. He is a .317 career hitter and it is easy to see why based on his approach.
With all of this in mind, as well as the fact he is a young free agent, why is he not getting more interest? Well, he is pretty much a one trick pony. It is a cool and valuable trait, but Arraez is as one dimensional as you can get in the MLB.
Arraez is not a power guy, with just 36 career homers in 840 MLB games. He will occasionally run into a homer, with 8 dingers last year, as well as a 10 homer campaign in 2023. Power is not a big part of his game though. However, the lack of power is not the real issue with Arraez. His biggest problem is his lack of speed or defense.
Luis Arraez started his career as a second baseman, but has been playing more first base over the last couple years. He has never graded out well at either position and is probably a better fit for DH. For a guy who makes so much contact, it is a shame that Arraez can’t really run. His sprint speed is in the 25th percentile.
If Arraez were fast, he would be much more highly sought after. Due to his lack of speed, he cannot take advantage of his contact skills as much. He cannot run out many infield hits and his career high in steals is only 11. Arraez is pretty much a clogger, but most of his hits are singles. It really is a tough profile to wrap your head around.
Paul Toboni is an analytically minded guy, so there is a chance he just would not touch Arraez due to his one dimensional skillset that does not generate a ton of WAR. However, innovators love to zig while others zag. There is a chance that Toboni and his staff could unlock something in Arraez.
Arraez does not have much power, but given his wizardry of the barrel, there could be a couple tweaks that might make him a 15 homer guy. When Daniel Murphy came to DC, he was not much of a power guy. However, he emphasized turning on mistake pitches and it made him a 25 homer bat.
I also think Arraez has gotten to a point where he might not be striking out enough. That may not make sense, but follow me. Just like how power hitters can sell out for power too much, I think Arraez might be selling out for contact.
He knows he can hit basically any pitch, so he is swinging at everything. Earlier in his career, Arraez was not like this. In his last year in Minnesota back in 2022, Arraez had a 24.1% chase rate, which is very good. However, that number was above 34% in 2025.
Could a slow market be a wake up call for Arraez to make changes? Arraez is a solid hitter in his current state, but not good enough to overcome his deficiencies. If he can get back to what his approach was in Minnesota, it would make him more effective in my opinion. In the last two seasons, Arraez has been making more contact than ever, but the quality of contact is a lot worse.
So would I sign Luis Arraez? Well, it depends on the price. I would love him on a one year deal, but I think he probably still gets a multi-year deal. Anything more than two years is pretty dicey for me. At 2-years $20 million, I would probably give it a shot though.
Arraez would also be a clunky fit with the Nats. The Nats are already a very poor defensive team and Arraez would not make that better. Even at first base, he is not good with the glove. He would get some time at DH, but he does not have the power of a prototypical DH. The Nats also need power in the lineup. Over the last couple years, the Nats have been towards the bottom of the league in homers, something Arraez would not help with.
There are so many weaknesses in the profile, but at the end of the day, the dude can hit. The Nats could do way worse at first base. I would prefer him over Josh Bell due to the fact Arraez is not as streaky of a hitter. Maybe the Nats could sign both and play one at DH and the other at first base.
The Nats are going to sign a first baseman of some sort this offseason. Both Paul Toboni and Blake Butera have hinted at it. There is no obvious in house solution, so the need is clear as day. He is an enigmatic player, but I would certainly be intrigued by the idea of Luis Arraez on the Nats.
