It was always going to be a difficult matchup for this year’s Arizona Wildcats. An entire roster of almost entirely new players. An entire staff of new coaches. A decided disadvantage when it comes to pulling
players from the transfer portal in the best of times. Then, leading scorer Micky Perdue was injured prior to the loss against UCF.
“Just injured her wrist, unfortunately, and we’re kind of just still waiting on a firm time frame,” said Arizona head coach Becky Burke. “I don’t think anything is solidified right now, but, yeah, like again, this week was so important for practice to just have some more practice—some more practices—without Micky. UCF was our first game without her, still trying to navigate 24 hours earlier the news. So it’s something that we’re still working through.”
This week’s injury reports have two players out for Arizona. Perdue and the only returning Wildcat Montaya Dew sit there like blinking warning signs. TCU is missing senior forward Aaliyah Roberson and freshman center Sarah Portlock, neither of whom have played this year.
The impact of those missing players is negligible for the Horned Frogs, who have plenty of frontcourt size and talent without them. For Arizona, the two losses are devastating. Perdue was leading the Wildcats with 17.1 points per game before her injury. If Dew had been healthy this season, she would have been the only Wildcat with extensive Power 4 experience.
Up Next for Arizona Women’s Basketball
Arizona Wildcats @ TCU Horned Frogs
When: Saturday, Jan. 17 @ 3 p.m. MST
Where:
Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 1400 AM (KTUC)
Stats: Arizona Live Stats
There was one bright spot this week, though. Arizona has had a full week off since its last game. The Wildcats could focus on improving themselves and then move on to looking at TCU and only TCU.
“We’ve had a good couple days to work on a lot of stuff offensively, sharpen up some flow issues, and then get a ton of shots up,” Burke said on Wednesday. “So that’s been nice to have a couple days at the beginning of this week to really just focus on ourselves before we start to prep for TCU.”
There are considerable challenges, though. Everyone knows about triple-double machine Olivia Miles, one of the biggest gets in last year’s portal haul. Some of the other transfers are just as vital, though.
The 6-foot-7 Clara Silva came to Fort Worth after having little impact at Kentucky her freshman season. She has gone from 12.5 minutes and 4.0 points per game in Lexington to 23.6 minutes and 10.2 points per game with the Horned Frogs. She’s shooting 64.3 percent, up from 56.5 percent last season. She contributes 7.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Her block percentage of 7.7 is in the 98th percentile of Division I, according to Her Hoop Stats.
“She’s really good at pick and roll situations,” Burke said. “She’s really, really good playing, playing off of Miles, and, you know, those who have a really good dynamic with one another. So she’s really good at hitting the dump down roll. She’s really good at posting back to the basket when she feels like she has a mismatch. She can run the floor well. She rebounds it extremely well on the offensive glass, getting over three a game. So, I think she’s just a really well rounded post player, which we’ve seen a lot of well rounded post players so far in our league that have been maybe, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. We haven’t seen one that’s 6-7. So I’m excited for the opportunity and the challenge, and get Achol [Magot] some minutes in this game, and get some size on size.”
The 6-foot-7 Magot is definitely an option against the size of Silva, who is a traditional center. Silva isn’t taking 3s this year, getting 90.7 percent of her points from 2-point distance and the other 9.3 percent from free throws. However, someone will have to contend with the versatility of Marta Suarez.
Suarez is a 6-foot-3 forward who spent three years at Tennessee, transferred to California for two years, and is now at TCU for a fifth year on the court and sixth year in college basketball. The Spanish player started her college career in 2020-21, the year Arizona made the national championship game.
Suarez really upped her game as part of the Golden Bears, but she’s even better this year. As a sixth-year grad student, it shouldn’t be a surprise.
She’s hitting 48.3 percent of her shots, including 38.2 percent of her 3-pointers. She takes 6.1 shots per game from beyond the arc. She’s also good for 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 steals in her 30.3 minutes per game. Except for the rebounds, those are all career highs.
It’s her size that may require Arizona to get creative. It may require a lineup that includes two bigs and makes as much use of Magot as possible inside. The concern will be keeping the foul-prone center on the floor against Silva. Magot has played just 4.2 minutes per game this year. Part of that is the fact that Arizona played so many small mid-major teams in nonconference. Part of it comes down to defensive struggles, though. She commits 15.8 personal fouls per 40 minutes and fouled out against Texas Tech in just 10 minutes.
If Magot can contain her fouls, that might allow Burke to use 6-foot-1 Daniah Trammell or 6-foot-2 Nora Francois on Suarez. They give up far less size against the forward than Arizona’s guards. They also have enough athleticism that could allow them to stay with the versatile player a bit better than some of the other possibilities. Blessing ‘Adde’ Adebanjo could also be an option, but she also needs to contain her 8.5 fouls per 4o minutes.
If Trammell is forced to go up against Silva or 6-foot-7 reserve Kennedy Basham, she is excited for the opportunity.
“Just be more physical and be more consistent,” Trammell said. “I don’t back down from any challenges. So if anything, I’m just gonna walk to the game and be blessed that I even have this opportunity to go against a ranked team. So I’m just gonna go out there and just play and do me and just try my best to stay on the floor.”
It takes a lot to overcome TCU. Utah is the only team to find a way this season and the Utes did it at home. West Virginia came close in Morgantown, falling on a last-second 3-pointer by Suarez in TCU’s last game.
Arizona Wildcats @ TCU Horned Frogs by the numbers
Records: Arizona is 10-6 overall and 1-4 in Big 12 play. TCU is 17-1 overall and 5-1 in conference play.
Poll rankings: TCU is ranked No. 10 in the AP poll and No. 8 in the USA Today/WBCA coaches poll.
Net rating: TCU is ranked No. 7 in the NET, which leads the Big 12. It played a nonconference schedule ranked 251 of 363 DI teams and has an overall SOS of 66. Arizona is ranked No. 137, which is next-to-last in the Big 12. Its nonconference SOS ranked 352 and overall SOS ranks 181.
Her Hoop Stats ratings: TCU is ranked sixth according to the HHS ratings. Its offense is ranked seventh and its defense is ranked sixth. Arizona is ranked 94th overall, 95th on offense, and 103rd on defense.
Massey ratings: TCU is ranked seventh by Massey Ratings. It has the No. 23 offense and No. 9 defense. Its overall SOS is 40th. Arizona is ranked 88th overall, 58th on offense, and 84th on defense. Its overall SOS is 108th.
Projections: Massey ratings give TCU an 87 percent win probability in Fort Worth. The most likely score is 75-61. HHS has the matchup even more lopsided. The stats service gives TCU a win probability of at least 95.5 percent no matter where the game is played. In Fort Worth, that number is 98.2 percent. The points favor TCU 84.6 to 55, for a winning margin of 29.6 and a point total of 139.5 (difference due to rounding).
