On Monday, Zach Barnett
of FootballScoop.com made an interesting observation that “total offense was down to its lowest point in a generation last season”.
Barnett cites this past season’s North Texas offense and goes on about Baylor offenses of yore. But for our purposes, we want to get to the root of why this trend is happening.
Tulsa Head Coach Tre Lamb chimed in on Twitter and really got the ball rolling.
Lamb makes some good points (especially #2), but he missed a few reasons for the drop in offensive
production.
DEFENSIVE ADAPTATIONS AND LACK OF NEW OFFENSIVE INNOVATIONS
In the olden days, it was the offensive coaches who were the intellectual brainiacs and the defensive coaches were the blood-thirsty Neanderthals who just taught his players to “hit someone”. But thanks to deep-thinkers like Nick Saban, it is the defenses that are playing the 3-D chess.
- The Saban defenses are said to be among the most difficult to learn. But when it is learned, BOY, is it dangerous. The most vital components of modern college defenses are the nickelbacks, dimes, and hybrids. In short, it is having guys who can perform multiple tasks. Those who can succeed on the fly in different situations hold the most value. Additionally, defenses are more effective at disguising coverages and the movements up front can confound an offensive line. In short, defenses have become more sophisticated.
- When the RPO became fashionable a few years ago, it left many a DC scratching his head. However as it always is every time an offensive mind comes up with a unique attack, the defensive guys catch up and learn how to defend the new game plans. Since then, the eggheads on offense have not really come up with anything all that fresh or original.
- Another point on RPO and its evolution: many of those plays are short-gainers. Still today, we see many teams that dink & dunk their way down the field – often for under 5 yards per play – to systematically move the chains and chew up the game clock. Which leads me to…
RECENT RULE CHANGES
For better or for worst, the NCAA decided that college football needs to be more of an NFL Jr.
- One recent change has the clock running after first downs, except in the last two minutes of each half.
- Penalties at the end of the first and third quarters (aka untimed downs) carry over to the first play of the next quarter.
- The play clock is typically 40 seconds, but it is set to 25 seconds after certain stoppages, such as a change of possession or a timeout.
- The “match-up” provision of the defensive substitution rule is absolutely an advantage for the defense. If the offense substitutes, officials will not allow the ball to be snapped until the defense has been given an opportunity to substitute and the outgoing player leaves the field.
THE TRANSFER PORTAL
This one works both ways (offense & defense) and are related to the first category above.
- It is difficult to get some continuity on offense when so many guys are bolting after a year or two. Achieving rhythm between quarterback and skill players is a real thing. And the more time they spend together, the better. Additionally when a team brings in new players, they need to learn a new offense, new teammates, new sets, new terminology, etc.
- On the other side of the ball, the transfer portal is an excellent tool to pilfer a player who might fit a distinct role on defense. If you need a guy who has a certain skill set such as short yardage defense, 3rd and long, dime coverage on tight ends, or whatever situation, it is pretty easy for a “Have” team to convince a player on a “Have-Not” team to come play a role on their defense.
WORKING HYPOTHESES
I have no stats to back either of these thoughts up. Thus, they are just suppositions for now.
- HOLDING – Blocking has changed a lot in that last decade or so. And so too is how the zebras call it. It seems every time a defensive lineman gets pancaked, a flag comes out whether it was holding or not. Because of hypersensitive officials, offensive linemen have to be more careful about how they block. Also a side effect of stiffer holding calls is the development of smaller faster edge rushers – where most of the holding calls originate. This ties into the point above about “specialists” on defense.
- 4TH DOWN – The trend for 4th down conversion rates and attempt frequency has been steadily rising over the last decade, reaching historic highs in the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That would seem to be an contradictory explanation for lower scoring. But the big thing here is that it runs more clock. Secondly – and this really is a theory – maybe it is about field position. Sometimes pinning an opponent deep is a more effective strategy.
Let us know your thoughts in Comments.
