In a recent article for CBS Sports, College Football analyst Tom Fornelli set out to make a bold prediction about what 2026 has in store for every team in the Big Ten. The fact that he called them bold predictions was not false advertising, as he had several throughout the article, but had a particularly bold one when it came to Rutgers.
His prediction? That the Greg Schiano era would come to an end at Rutgers.
“If you understand how important Schiano is to the program, you understand how BOLD this
prediction is. The problem Schiano faces is that the Knights are only 31-41 in this second stint and have made a bowl game three times in six seasons (and one of those was with a 5-7 record). That includes a mark of 15-39 in the Big Ten. This year’s schedule does Rutgers few favors. They’ll play Indiana, USC, Michigan, and Penn State. Sportsbooks have their win total posted at 4.5, which seems reasonable. If they play to expectations, I can see Rutgers deciding it’s time to move on after the season ends.“
In his statement, Fornelli clearly states how bold he thinks a move like this would be, but he still made the prediction regardless. While it is important to note that Schiano’s second stint as head coach at Rutgers has been less successful, the improvement from when he arrived in 2019-2020 through now is undeniable. On top of that, he has arguably faced a bigger uphill battle in his second stint than in his first with the implementation of NIL, the Transfer Portal, and the all-around difficulty of winning in the current Big Ten as a whole.
That’s not to say there isn’t a single reason to consider moving on, especially if the Knights don’t reach a bowl game in 2026.Rutgers has fallen short of expectations in 2024 and especially 2025, with Schiano being the driving force behind a few of those blunders. (2024 vs Illinois ring a bell?) In addition, we know that Rutgers athletic director Keli Zinn won’t put up with losing forever.
Still, moving on from Schiano if the team doesn’t exceed expectations in 2026, more than likely isn’t going to happen. First of all, that depends on the team not exceeding current expectations, which are already really low to begin with, with their projected win total being set at 4.5 games, and they have several toss-up games to prove doubters wrong. Secondly, the Scarlet Knights have a lot of intriguing and exciting prospects climbing up the ladder. Thirdly, Rutgers will be on the hook for a 17,296,875 million dollar buyout if they decide to move on after 2026, as Schiano signed an extension in 2023, locking him in until 2029. The financial issues of Rutgers athletics are well-documented, and that fact alone will likely move them away from such a move.
