Fresh off its first win of the season (albeit in the Conference League against a badly overmatched Sigma), Fiorentina heads to the capital for an entirely different challenge against Serie A joint-leader Roma. The match will be played on Sunday, 5 October 2025, at 14:00 GMT/10:00 EST, at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. The forecast calls for a warm, sunny day in the capital, muggier than it strictly speaking should be for autumn.
Three things to watch for
1. Cracking Serie A’s best defense. Gian Piero Gasperini has hit the ground
running in Rome not due to an overpowering attack but the league’s stingiest defense: the Giallorossi have only conceded once so far in Serie A (against Torino), although Lille also put one by them on Thursday. Gasp’s always been underrated as a defensive tactician and the numbers don’t lie.
Roma presses high and wins the ball back in dangerous areas, as you’d expect. They’ve been particularly good at cutting out passes rather than going into tackles, which immediately makes me think that Marin Pongračić‘s wayward passing at the back will be a major problem. It might make sense to go long from the back early and often, relying on Moise Kean and whoever’s up front with him to win their battles; taking away situations in which Roma can win the ball high by pressing might be the best attacking decision Stefano Pioli can make, other than making his guys win their duels. If they do, Fiorentina can cause problems. Otherwise, it’ll be bad.
Scoring against these guys isn’t some insurmountable task, to be clear. They’ve only conceded once but Opta’s model puts their xG against at 4.1. A lot of that is goalkeeper Mile Svilar, who might be the best in Italy right now and already looks like a bargain after signing a contract extension this summer. I believe in Kean, despite his abject performances thus far, and think he can get something going against this back 3. But to crack this defense, Fiorentina will have to be dialed in for 90 minutes, which hasn’t really been the case even once so far.
2. Keeping a lid on Roma’s attack. In contrast to the defense, Roma’s attack has been relatively poor, scoring just 5 goals. That’s 2 more than Fiorentina, to be fair, but is still a very low number, especially for a Gasperini team that’s shelled out €130 million on forwards (assuming the club redeems Evan Ferguson and Leon Bailey) over the past 2 summers.
Part of that is availability, of course. Paulo Dybala and Bailey are both out injured right now, leaving Matías Soulé to shoulder more of the creative load than he perhaps should. Ferguson’s looked very good but hasn’t scored yet and Artem Dovbyk drifts in and out. Captain Stephan El Shaarawy has been the most consistent attacker so far. Gasperini’s system is also unique, requiring everyone to be on the same page. It’s not surprising that it hasn’t entirely filtered through yet.
What Roma will do well is keep the ball in dangerous positions, which will force the Viola defense to shift around or risk losing the runners from deep which are the hallmark of every Gasperini attack. You can see all the principles; it’s just that final ball that’s lacking. Hopefully, keeping Soulé shackled will prevent Roma’s attack from really functioning. He’s the creative hub, and if he’s quiet, Fiorentina’s odds of keeping this scoreline low increase dramatically.
3. Fiorentina’s mentality. The winless start to the Serie A season has resulted in some soul-searching. From the persistent discussions about Pioli’s job security to Robin Gosens’ heartfelt Instagram statement, it’s clear that everyone is feeling the heat. That’s not necessarily a bad thing: a team of Fiorentina’s stature cannot and should not accept this situation and everyone ought to be doing everything in their power to reverse it.
The question, of course, is how the players react on the pitch. It’s always difficult to know if it’s the manager laying out bad ideas or the players executing them poorly but it’s obvious to anyone watching that there’s an interruption in service somewhere along the line. Maybe the win against Sigma heralds a new start, with Pioli changing his plans to fit the guys at his disposal, or the players buying all the way into the mister’s demands, or a bit of both.
If that win was just a matter of talent, rather than tactics and belief, though, Roma will make it very clear. The Giallorossi already look like a very good team, one that should qualify for the Champions League, and is more than capable of punishing any opponent that isn’t 10 toes down. We’ll find out if that’s Fiorentina on Sunday. The result doesn’t matter so much as the nature of the game and how the Viola approach it.
Possible lineups
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Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
The bookies have the visitors as favorites for obvious reasons. These clubs are at opposite ends of the standings and fully deserve to be where they are. Fiorentina’s mild advantage from playing at home isn’t enough to offset its own incompetence through these first couple months, especially when compared to Roma’s sturdiness. If I’m honest, I’m surprised the odds are as close as they are and, were I a gambling man (I’m not and neither should be you), I’d take the under on 2.5 goals. This looks like a low-scoring affair between teams that have scored 8 goals between them this season.
I’ll take Fiorentina to squeak out a win in reprehensible fashion (32% possession, 7 total shots, 2 on target) thanks to Moise Kean finally getting untracked and David de Gea standing on his head as Roma pepper his goal with shots but somehow fail to finish. It doesn’t bode particularly well that such an undeserving win is the closest to optimism I can get in the eternally sunny TMBGD but it’s not like the Viola have given me any reason to expect anything other than pain.
Forza Viola!
