It’s safe to say we are on the roller coaster ride that is the baseball season. This early season has been filled with ups and downs. It’s fun that no matter how baseball changes, how many ways we can analyze it, it’s still a lot the same game. Oh sure, if this were 50 or 60 years ago, Cubs starter Edward Cabrera would probably have thrown (at least) another inning or two. After all, when your starter has allowed just one hit and one walk over six, you keep running him out there.
Just for kicks, I
went all of the way back to 1969 to see what Ferguson Jenkins did on Opening Day. It was a perfect compare and contrast to the modern game. Fergie threw only eight innings on Opening Day that year. Was it great restraint by the famed Leo Durocher? Well, not really. Fergie allowed five runs in eight innings of work (he didn’t walk anyone, though). Also, let’s be clear. Fergie started the ninth, pitching with a three-run lead. He allowed two singles and a three-run homer. That finished Fergie’s day after throwing 109 pitches. The Cubs did score two in the bottom of the 11th (after allowing one in the top) to walk it off.
The game changes. Teams don’t rely on starters anywhere near as much as we used to. They hope that more pitches can be thrown at or near max effort. They hope that more pitchers, when effective, can pitch much longer into their careers. We know that first thing is happening more and more. We think maybe that second thing is happening. Less is being asked of starters. And yet, little is more valuable than a strong start from your starter. The Cubs have had two quality starts in the young season and they’ve won both games. They lost the other two.
Eleven teams came through the first weekend of the season without a quality start. Those teams combined for a record of 12-24. That record is buoyed by the Brewers who, annoyingly, swept their opening series without a single QS. Of course, the White Sox didn’t have one either in that series. So I guess that was a wash, at least for starting pitching. The Nationals didn’t have one over the weekend either, but did beat the Phillies in Philadelphia, 13-2. Clearly, no one has told the Nationals that they are supposed to be God-awful. For that matter, no one has told Joey Wiemer that he’s not going to be the MVP. Who doesn’t love an early season line of .800/.846/1.600? I think that’s maybe some kind of record pace.
I’ll be a broken record here early. Because it’s early. Very little of this matters much. It would definitely matter a lot if Cade Horton and Edward Cabrera were elite. We have reason to believe one is and hope that the other can be. It would definitely matter a lot if Matthew Boyd and Shōta Imanaga were bad. I think we fear that one is and expect the other to be at least decent, coming off of an All-Star season. Drawing conclusions in April is a fool’s errand. Doing so in March is a waste of time.
The Cubs got a good pitching performance and the bats shined. More of both, please. And hey, even when one has an off night, there isn’t any particular rule that says both have to be off. I like to think of baseball having four quadrants. These two wins are in the best quadrant which is good pitching/good hitting. So let’s hope that those other two quadrants (good hitting/poor pitching, and poor hitting/good pitching) eke out some wins too. The best teams can win games in all three of the better quadrants (it’s an unusual scenario to win a game with poor/poor performance). And let’s hope the Cubs spend an awful lot of time in that best quadrant. They’ve got a lot of winning to do and a lot of working out who the best 26 are. And there are only 158 games left to get all of that done.
Three Stars:
- Edward Cabrera. Six innings, five strikeouts and just one walk. No runs and only a single hit. I only had one eye on it at the time, but I didn’t think the one hit looked particularly crushed.
- Ian Happ had a solo homer and a walk. This is the third straight game he’s homered in, matching a career high. It very well could have been four had the wind not knocked down a crushed ball in the opener.
- On the third game in three days, with two more to follow, Colin Rea got nine outs with a huge lead. In the modern game, you use a ton of pen. In early games, that’s particularly exacerbated. With Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd to follow, who knows what you get? Giving everyone else a night off allows you to go much more aggressively at the next two. The Cubs high-leverage relievers have seen no leverage at all yet.
- Honorable mention to the whole offense. Nine hits, seven walks. Angels starter Ryan Johnson was really shaky and the Cubs had a very patient approach to that. Happ only stands out for the homer. Otherwise, the Cubs offense just showed a steady, relentless approach and wore the Angels down. And their troubles were complicated by the early conditions at Wrigley Field on a pop fly that almost certainly should have been caught and led to two runs.
Game 4, March 30: Cubs 7, Angels 2 (2-2)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Edward Cabrera (.174). 6 IP, 19 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, 5 K (W 1-0)
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.122). 1-4, 2 RBI
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.075). 1-4, BB, HR, RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.039). 1-4, BB
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.014). 0-2
- Kid: Matt Shaw (.001). 1-2
WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly batted with runners on first and second and two outs in the first, the Cubs up one. He skied one into shallow center. The Angels failed to make a play on the ball and Pete Crow-Armstrong motored around from first to make this into a two-run single. (.155)
*Angels Play of the Game: Ryan Johnson faced Alex Bregman with a runner on first and no outs in the first inning, the game scoreless. He got Bregman to pop out for the first out. (.035)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Alex Bregman received 124 of 148 votes.
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the Angels. Jameson Taillon makes his season debut. Last year he was 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA in 23 starts. Taillon’s numbers as a Cub do not in any way justify the negative perception of his value. In his age-34 season last year, he dealt with some injuries but was pretty effective when healthy. At this point in his career, it’s hard to imagine he can’t be a fifth starter who produces more good starts than bad and provides value to this team.
The Angels start 27-year-old José Soriano. Soriano started Opening Day this year for the Angels. He threw six scoreless and struck out seven in Houston. He’s pitched in parts of three seasons for the Angels previously, having an 18-21 record and a 3.82 ERA across 92 appearances (52 starts). Could the 27-year-old Dominican product be finding himself? We shall see. He didn’t face the Cubs last year. He threw five unremarkable innings against them in July 2024. Michael Busch took him deep and Miguel Amaya had a pair of hits. Plan to see Miguel back in the lineup to try to continue his hot start at the plate.
How about the first back-to-back wins of the season?
