The Stanford Cardinal (3-4) will travel over 3,000 miles to face the Miami Hurricanes (5-1) at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, October 25th at 7pm on ESPN. The Cardinal are coming off of an upset of the FSU Seminoles in a late game while Miami has to bounce back after a loss to Louisville at home.
This will be the very first matchup for Miami and Stanford, two programs that have been playing football for over 100 years who have failed to meet prior to 2025. Miami has a 96% chance of victory per ESPN.
The Doppler
The SP+ from Bill Connelly has Miami as the 13th best team in FBS while Stanford is 101st overall. The ‘Canes are 13th on offense, 24th on defense, and 13th in kicking. The Cardinal are 106th in offense, 86th in defense, and 97th in kicking.
Miami’s 3rd down offense is 32nd in FBS at just under 45%. The ‘Canes 4th down offense is 24th at 66%. The Cardinal 3rd down offense is 113th at 33% and their 4th down offense is 17th at 69%.
The key there will be to keep Stanford to 4th and more than 1-2 yards. The Miami 3rd down defense is 20th in FBS allowing only 32% of opponents to convert. The Stanford 3rd down defense is 51st at 37%.
When it comes to turnover margin per game, Stanford is 93rd in the country at -0.4 while Miami is 52nd at +0.2. Carson Beck’s four INT performance cratered the UM TOM/G data point.
Penalty yards per game for Stanford shows them at 66th in FBS with 53 yards per game in flags while Miami is 110th at 66 yards per game. Mario’s Culture is at a new low in being flagged and flagged at horrible times for stupid actions.
Stanford has shown limited pop in their return game while their punter is solid and PK Emmet Kennedy is perfect on PAT’s while missing only two FG’s this season. Miami has flirted with pop in their return game and Carter Davis is perfect on PAT’s and FG’s this season.
The Film
The Stanford Cardinal knocked off the FSU Seminoles on Saturday, October 18th in an upset win. This could be the final nail in Mike Norvell’s coffin even with a massive buyout looming over the ‘Noles heads. The Cardinal held on to their 20-13 win with some bizarre final plays but they don’t ask how, they ask how many.
FSU finished 9-of-21 on money downs, while Stanford went 6-of-16 which is fairly even math. The ‘Noles were flagged for 79 penalty yards while the Cards were flagged for only 47. The only turnover went FSU’s way with Stanford throwing an interception. FSU kicker Jake Weinberg missed a FG attempt which forced the ‘Noles to have to go for a touchdown in the final seconds rather than setting up a FG.
STANFORD OFFENSE
QB Ben Gulbranson threw one TD and one INT on only 6.9 yards per attempt before being knocked out of the game. QB Elijah Brown averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt and will likely start vs. Miami.
RB Cole Tabb averaged 4.2 yards per carry with a TD, Micah Ford averaged only 3.2 yards per carry and the QB’s weren’t effective on the ground. The Stanford OL allowed two sacks and five TFL’s vs. FSU.
The Stanford QB’s connected with only four receivers but three of them hit double-digit yards per catch. CJ Williams averaged 15.3 yards and caught one TD.
Above– What is Stanford trying to do? You can see Stick here with #1 running vertical, #2 running a slide and #3 running the stick. Either route is open (re stick or slide). Miami is going to have their LB’ers coverage skill put to the test.
Above– The SU QB throws this pick so blatantly it looks like it’s to the FSU DB. He may be out anyway but if you can force someone to throw that bad of a ball you have to haul it in.
Above– What can play-action do? Open up crossers like this. Miami was woeful in coverage against L’ville’s crossing routes. Stanford and Frank Reich will see this and attempt to coach it open.
Above– SU has a good little RB in Tabb and between him and the end around action FSU’s LB’s bite bite bite.
Above– And of course it’s a crossing route that comes open. They’re super hard to defend, why do you think the Air Raid features crossers on three of its main concepts?
Above– Here FSU does a great job of setting the edge and forcing the RB back inside. Bain and Mesidor need to stay home and not allow the bounce.
Above– Rub routes are a great concept inside the +10 going in. They force defenders to bang into each other (see: Miami vs. Louisville 2025 and 2023) or just have to slow down to avoid the legal pick. This goes for a TD for the Cards.
Above– FSU brings delayed edge pressure and it gets home on 2nd and goal. Keionte Scott has been really good in this safety edge blitz role.
Above– Nasty little stiff arm to set up 1st and goal. If they give you the arm you need to take the arm. Miami’s tackling in space leaves a lot to be desired, again.
STANFORD DEFENSE
The Cards defense was bend but don’t break all night. Thomas Castellanos averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt before being taken out late in the game duo to a cheap shot. Freshman Kevin Sperry averaged 9.9 per throw.
Gavin Sawchuk averaged 3.5 yards per carry while Castellanos was held to 2.4 and one TD. Ousmane Kromah hit the 4.3 mark while Sperry added 3.3 on the ground as well.
The FSU QB’s connected with seven different receivers, with four hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Micahi Danzy led the receivers with 35.3 yards per catch and Deuce Robinson was right behind him with 24.5.
Stanford’s defense got to the FSU QB’s twice with four TFL’s and eight PBU’s on the night. LB Zach Johnson and S Scotty Edwards had a solid game for the Cards.
Above– Dawson has to see Y-Cross coming open and drool. Toney was born to run this concept as it works over the LB and under the S. It does need time and if Miami’s OL is a “top-5” unit they should be able to give it vs. a Stanford team that’s 57th in sacks in FBS with 2.0 per game (for reference Miami is only 47th with 2.2).
Above– Cards do a great job of winning the outside shoulder on OZ and boxing the RB in. His cutback lane is clogged by a DT and an ILB. The “between the tackles” runs were tough for FSU, too.
Above– Not many teams can cover Robinson and SU was one. Miami really needs a taller outside WR to emerge for back shoulder balls. Will it be CJ Daniels back at it or what about Josh Moore?
Above– EVERYONE is covered as SU drops 8. Castellanos can and does run (TD) on this but can and will Beck? 3rd and 5 you can’t force a throw, just take your INC and FG.
Above– On 3rd and 9 FSU calls a concept where no receivers on the screen are looking for the ball even as the QB hitches up (2nd read). This results in a sack. That’s just bad scheme especially to not use the middle of the field there and split those two LBs.
Above– The SU linebacker crosses the FSU LT’s face and blows this up for a TFL. One thing an OL can absolutely NOT do is let someone cross their face. With Beck not being a run threat SU could decide to squeeze hard like this vs. Miami to stop the run.
Above– One step is a win. Stanford can’t keep up with Toney and it’ll be up to Dawson to figure out how to protect Beck enough to develop deep shots and to find another threat to draw some attention to avoid the double coverage throw. Is Beck’s arm strong enough to get this ball there?
The Forecast
In the summer I had the Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme over Stanford as just caveman them to death. After seeing what FSU did I think deep shot play-action might work better than ground & pound.
The individual Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami over Stanford are:
1- Protect Carson Beck. Beck clearly folds under pressure and the Miami OL while not allowing sacks did allow pressure. Rather than escape or check down Beck went deep. If Beck has time, and will check down again, he can avoid costly turnovers that would keep Stanford in the game.
2- Play disciplined football. Miami continues to shoot itself in the foot under Mario Cristobal. All of this tough talk is just that, talk. It’s time for Mario to put up or shut up regarding the dumb flags that are killing the program’s chance to play in the ACC Championship Game year after year.
3- Pursue and Finish. The defense showed some weakness and reverted back to version 2.0 (1.0 was Kevin Steele and Charlie Strong). Bad pursuit angles, missed tackles, failed INT’s on easy picks. I hope with the extra day off Miami is working on real tackling drills and pursuit.
Prediction: Miami by 14. The Hurricanes will bounce back and lean on the Cardinals. Miami is better than FSU and unless the offense completely dies the defense should hold Stanford to nothing but field goals all evening.
